Best and Worst ESPN Fantasy Football ADP Values: Malik Nabers, Josh Jacobs, and More

We’re now at the point of training camp where the news never stops. There are updates, buzz, hype, depth-chart notes, injury concerns—and, of course, the Hall of Fame Game is already in the books. Things are getting real.

It’s a good time to zero in on ESPN-specific fantasy football ADP, because every platform has its own little market inefficiencies.

Best and Worst ESPN Fantasy Football ADP Values

Avoid: Josh Jacobs | RB | Packers (ADP 27.5)

Josh Jacobs at an ESPN ADP of 27.5 is a pass for me if I’m drafting this weekend.

If you’ve been catching up on the news from the last couple of months, Jacobs has had some off-field uncertainty hanging over his head. Things have been relatively quiet regarding potential discipline, but that does not mean the uncertainty disappears. Now, he has a groin issue that kept him out of practice earlier this week.

Packers reporters Matt Schneidman and Aaron Nagler noted that Jacobs was not in pads Thursday and worked with a rehab trainer. The injury is being downplayed, but when you’re spending a late-second- or early-third-round pick, you don’t need to accept multiple layers of risk if you have other options.

I don’t hate the player. Jacobs still carries high touchdown equity in an offense that should create scoring opportunities. But as of this weekend, I’d rather pivot to a different player in the range, particularly in PPR formats. This take could change by Monday or Tuesday if he’s back practicing at full speed, but today, there’s simply too much risk attached to that draft equity.

Avoid: Tyler Warren | TE | Colts (ADP 47.0)

Tyler Warren is a fantastic player. This is strictly a cost conversation.

Warren’s ADP is 47 on ESPN, which is basically a late-fourth-round price. Fantasy Life projects him for 77 catches, 821 yards, and 158.6 fantasy points. That’s a strong projection, but when you zoom out and compare it to the wide receivers and running backs available around that part of the board, it’s tough for me to justify the investment.

There are plenty of tight ends this year. If you want to pay at the very top for Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, I get it. If you are infatuated with the potential of Ben Johnson’s offense and Colston Loveland, I understand that, too. But Warren sits in an uncomfortable middle ground for me.

At that price, I’d rather build the foundation of my offense with a player who has a more frequent, high-end weekly ceiling. Position scarcity matters, of course, but the projection gap between Warren and cheaper tight ends does not feel wide enough to make him one of my favorite fourth-round investments.

Target: Malik Nabers | WR | Giants (ADP 41.1)

Injury news can work both ways. A month ago, Malik Nabers’ price felt like it was getting a little scary. Now? I’m back in.

I’m surprised, and I think most of us are, by how well Nabers has appeared to move in the training camp clips and reports that have trickled out. Until we get something more negative—a setback, or backpedaling from the team—an ESPN ADP of 41.1 is an absolute bargain.

We are talking about a player who, at full health, should be in the end-of-Round-1 or early-Round-2 conversation. Getting him in the early fourth is a price I’m willing to pay for a legitimate difference-maker.

There is always injury risk. But at some point, you have to bet on talent, and Nabers has the target-earning profile and ceiling to blow this ADP out of the water. It’s wheels up unless the news changes.

Target: Stefon Diggs | WR | Commanders (ADP 166.2)

Stefon Diggs at 166.2 on ESPN is the easiest value on this list.

Diggs signed with the Commanders this week and should step immediately into the No. 2 receiver role for an offense that had been in dire need of another playmaker. I’ve been writing all offseason that Washington did a disservice to Jayden Daniels by not doing more to bolster the offense. I still think they should have added more than an aging Diggs, but at this cost, I’m not complaining.

Assuming Diggs has a clean bill of health and his off-field issues are behind him, he has proven he can still produce. Fantasy Life projects him for 69 catches, 782 yards, and 5.3 touchdowns. That will absolutely play once you’re into the double-digit rounds.

For perspective, our half-PPR projections have Diggs just 14 points behind Tyler Warren. Yes, tight end scarcity is real, and those positions are different animals. But it illustrates the point: Diggs is essentially free right now. If your league is drafting soon, there is still a chance the room has not adjusted. That price will not last.

Good luck!