Fantasy Football Predictions Leveraging Week 5 Betting Market Data

Continue to Attack the Lions (and Their Opponents)

If you were going to design a team in a lab to maximize fantasy football production, it’d look a lot like the 2026 Lions. They have massive firepower on offense, but they can’t stop a nosebleed on defense. Their secondary has been depleted by injuries, resulting in a ton of high-scoring affairs to start the year. All four of their games have hit at least 55 total points, and last week’s game featured nearly 900 yards of total offense.

It’s possible the Lions are able to stem the tide a bit following their Week 6 bye, so this could be our last chance to fully enjoy this set of circumstances. The Cardinals get their crack at the Lions this week, and they’ve also been in a handful of high-scoring affairs recently. Each of their past two games have hit at least 60 points scored. Unsurprisingly, the sharps see plenty of potential for scoring in this spot, pushing the total all the way up to 54.5.

For the Lions, all the usual suspects are in play for fantasy purposes. Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are among the best plays at their respective positions, while Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams are all comfortable starters. Even Isaac Teslaa could warrant some consideration in deeper leagues: he had a season-high 87% route participation at 14% target share last week. With the way the Lions have scored points this year, that’s enough to be a desperation flex play.

On the other side, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Jacoby Brissett are all clear starters. Jordan Love (currently questionable) and Tyler Allgeier are potential flex options, while maybe even Marvin Harrison Jr. can get going in this spot. He did score his first touchdown of the season last week, though that was his only catch on a 9% target share. Ultimately, anyone who is going to see the field has at least some appeal in this spot.

No Options in Texans-Titans

This game is the complete opposite of Lions-Cardinals. The total currently sits at just 37.5 points, and it might just continue to fall. The sharps have been all over the under in this spot, and this game has the lowest projected total in our NFL Game Model.

For fantasy purposes, I’m treating this game like The Grinch – I wouldn’t touch it with a 39.5-foot pole.

Nico Collins is the obvious exception. He’s one of the best receivers in fantasy, and he’s coming off a big game in Week 4. That said, I’d still have lower expectations than usual. He checks in at just WR7 in our projections after finishing as the WR3 last week.

Other than that, who else is there to get excited about in this matchup? David Montgomery is merely “meh” at running back. C.J. Stroud is outside the top 15 at quarterback. No other skill-position players are even worth starting consideration.

Things are even bleaker for Tennessee. The timeshare between Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears hurts both players’ value, especially against a strong Texans defense. Carnell Tate had his best game as a pro last week, finishing with 17.0 fantasy points in 0.5-PPR scoring, but he finished as WR39 or worse in his first three contests. His underlying utilization is strong, but with Cam Ward struggling at quarterback, it still makes him a risky option.

Tate is still probably the second-most-interesting option in this game after Collins, but I’d still be inclined to look elsewhere if possible. That’s how ugly this game has the potential to be.

Fantasy Game of the Year?

The last time the Bills and Rams squared off, we were treated to one of the best fantasy games in recent memory. Both teams scored at least 42 points and racked up at least 334 yards of total offense. Josh Allen had arguably the greatest fantasy game in the history of the QB position. He finished with 342 yards and three touchdowns through the air, and an additional 82 yards and three scores on the ground. Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, and Ty Johnson all had receiving touchdowns, while Amari Cooper added six catches for 95 yards.

On the Rams side, Matthew Stafford threw for 320 yards with two scores, while Kyren Williams added two scores on the ground. Puka Nacua was unstoppable, racking up 12 catches, 162 yards, and two total touchdowns, while Cooper Kupp added 92 yards and a score of his own.

Some of the names have changed for this matchup, but there’s no reason to expect much different. The sharps have pushed this total all the way up to 54.5, and that still might be too low: our projected total is a slate-high 54.7.

Like with Lions-Cardinals, this is another game where basically everyone who is expected to see meaningful snaps has some fantasy appeal.