Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 8 Betting Market Data

The Ravens are Back

The Ravens have left a bad taste in my mouth over the past two weeks. Lamar Jackson was expected to play in Week 6 … until he didn’t. Jackson returned to practice and appeared set to play vs. the Bengals in Week 7 … until he didn’t. Now, the reports are that Jackson will be back in the lineup for Week 8 vs. the Bills. This situation obviously is worth monitoring, but as long as Jackson remains at practice, we should see the Ravens’ star QB back in action.

It’s hard to imagine a better return spot than vs. the Bills. Their offense remains one of the best in football, while their defense has been dreadful. They’re dead last in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Jackson is an obvious fantasy starter if he’s back in the lineup, and Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers are also slam-dunk options. That said, guys like Mark Andrews and Ja’Kobi Lane could also be worth a dart throw. There are four teams on bye this week, and there are worse fill-ins than players on a team with a 25.5-point implied team total.

That figure could also continue to rise. The Ravens have been a clear target for the sharps early in the week, as has the over in this matchup. Both of these offenses have the potential to light up the scoreboard.

Sneaky Upside in Raiders-Jets?

The Jets and Raiders don’t have nearly the same level of offensive firepower as Baltimore and Buffalo, but they’ve had some strong fantasy contributors to start the year. Guys like Brock Bowers and Garrett Wilson are among the best in football at their respective positions, while guys like Tre Tucker, Omar Cooper, and Braelon Allen have emerged in recent weeks.

This is another game where the sharps are expecting some scoring. The total in this game was listed at a paltry 40.5 points before the start of the year, but it is all the way up to 46.5 currently. The money continues to pour in on the over, so it’s possible this figure continues to rise before kickoff. Both Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith have proved they still have some gas left in the tank, while both defenses have left plenty to be desired.

Ultimately, the Raiders have allowed at least 27 points in five straight games, including 30+ in four straight. While the Jets are the worst offensive team the Raiders have faced during that stretch, I wouldn’t expect a huge step forward. The Jets defense is a bit better on paper, but they just allowed 360 yards and 28 points to the Dolphins last week. All of the usual suspects are in play for this matchup, and don’t be surprised if someone ends up being a league-winner.

The only real X-Factor is the status of Breece Hall. He was inactive last week vs. the Dolphins, but he appears to be trending toward a return. That would be a massive blow to Allen, who has finished as a top-19 RB in three straight weeks.

Be Wary of KC & Denver

The Chiefs got off to a phenomenal start this season. Kenneth Walker was running wild, and he allowed Patrick Mahomes to post some of the best efficiency numbers in years. Overall, the offense looked like a well-oiled machine.

However, the Chiefs got off to that start against some lackluster defenses. They had a big step up in weight class last week vs. the Seahawks, and they failed that test pretty miserably. Their offense managed just three points and 213 yards of total offense, so they took a major step backward.

That sets up an interesting spot this week vs. the Broncos. They already torched the Broncos once this season, but that was back in Week 1. Denver couldn’t tackle to save their lives in that matchup, and Walker torched them as a result. They’ve rebounded since then, and they’re back up to sixth in EPA per play defensively. They should be in a much better position to slow down Kansas City, especially if Rashee Rice is sidelined once again.

On the other side, the Broncos’ offense has been a disaster all season. Bo Nix looks lost at quarterback. He got a brief respite last week vs. the Cardinals, but he was still far from elite. Most of his production came with his legs, gouging the Cardinals for a 62-yard touchdown run. It’s safe to say that’s not going to happen every week, and the Chiefs are currently fifth in the league in defensive EPA per play.

Add it all up, and points figure to be at a premium in this contest. That would be true with both offenses at full strength, and that’s clearly not the case at the moment. Outside of Walker and Travis Kelce, it’s hard to get excited about anyone in this contest for fantasy purposes.