Fantasy Football Projections Updates on Josh Downs, Tyler Warren & Alec Pierce After Keenan Allen Signing

Another wide receiver free agency domino has fallen, as Keenan Allen has signed with the Colts. This has produced some updates in my fantasy football projections on some buzzy players this offseason. Let's dive into what changed in my projections.

Projections Updates In Fantasy Football For Colts Pass Catchers After Keenan Allen Signing

Keenan Allen

The 34-year-old wide receiver saw his playing time reduced over the course of last season, but his targets per route run (TPRR) remained robust at 25%. He projects as the Colts' WR3 and should play when they are in 11-personnel. There is a chance he rotates in 2-WR sets with Downs. I have Allen playing 58% of pass plays. He is a low-end WR5.

Josh Downs

Allen blocked Rome Odunze in 2024 and then disrupted Ladd McConkey in 2025. Allen isn't what he once was, but still earns QB trust, which equals targets when on the field. He also operates in the same area of the field as Downs and Warren, where things are getting pretty crowded. My initial read is that Allen finds much of his playing time through 11-personnel. The team waited as long as they could to add a WR, and this was driven by the Pierce injury. So, I think they want Downs on the field in 2-WR sets, so I only brought Downs down slightly.

Changes:

Routes down 2%
Targets down 1%
Receiving TDs down 1%

Downs drops a few spots in the ranks; he is a low-end WR3 with WR2 upside.

Alec Pierce

Pierce continues to recover from offseason ankle surgery and has not practiced. The signing of Allen is not a great sign. I have taken away one game from Pierce in the fantasy football projections. When healthy, I don't see Allen impacting his playing time. However, part of the thesis on the upside of Pierce was further integration into non-downfield route concepts. Missing so much of training camp hurts that case. Plus, those are things Allen does well, which could mean the best role for Pierce is to remain a deep threat in 2026.

Changes:

Deducted one game
Slight target reduction
Moved aDOT up. Reduced catch rate

Pierce is a borderline WR4.

Tyler Warren

Warren's routes are unimpacted by Allen, but I brought his targets down by 0.5% due to the overlap in where they attack the field. Warren remains my TE4, but this adds some risk to his floor.