Fantasy Football Rankings vs. ADP: Tetairoa McMillan and More Misprices on ESPN
Kendall Valenzuela breaks down five players who are ranked far differently in her 2025 fantasy football rankings than what their ESPN ADP currently sits at.
Our fantasy football ADP tool is probably my best friend during draft season. It's so important if you're doing multiple drafts to not only have an edge on your leaguemates, but to put yourself in a position to absolutely dominate before the draft even starts.
I talk on SiriusXM a lot about familiarizing yourself with a draft room before you begin, because not all ADPs are created equal. We see on Underdog that wide receivers are pushed up the board a lot, but on platforms like ESPN, there will be noticeable differences (like Ladd McConkey going 13 picks later). And remember, average draft positions are there as a guide, not a one-for-one on when you should or shouldn't draft someone. Let's get into some big differences I've seen between my rankings and ESPN.
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Differences In My Fantasy Football Rankings vs. ESPN ADP
Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Panthers
- Kendall Overall Ranking: 43
- ESPN ADP: 89.2
The Carolina Panthers (and fantasy managers alike) are hoping that we get the Bryce Young from the back half of the 2024 season. From Week 8 on, he had an 83.7 PFF pass grade (sixth), 7.7% big time throw rate (first), and was the QB13 in fantasy points per game.
The Panthers made sure to get Young more help heading into the 2025 season, and that's where we have to talk about Tetairoa McMillan. The former Arizona Wildcats wide receiver had a 27% career target share and is projected to have 122 targets with Young as his new quarterback. When we look down this depth chart, no one stands out as an immediate threat. Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker are all expected to have under 80 targets. The upside here with McMillan is hard to ignore, and at this price on ESPN, I will be taking him almost every single time. Thor Nystrom comped him to Drake London and he also notched a 92 Super Model Rating, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark since 2018.
Omarion Hampton | RB | Chargers
- Kendall Overall Ranking: 45
- ESPN ADP: 52.5
Listen, after Matthew Berry announced his Ride or Die for the season was going to be Omarion Hampton, I'm honestly looking at my initial rankings and thinking I need to move him up. It's being reported that even with Najee Harris sustaining an eye injury in early July that he is expected to return, but we still have no real timeline. While I liked Harris' fit with the Chargers, this is still a new team that he hasn't been practicing with, which could make a huge difference on the field come Week 1.
There's no question that Hampton is NFL-ready, and with question marks around Harris' availability, a full Hampton backfield takeover is now a huge possibility. Hampton earned a 79 rating in the Rookie Super Model, and last season, the Chargers were top-six in the NFL in running back carries inside the five-yard line.
This Chargers team wanted to be run-heavy last season, but didn't have the right running backs at the time. Hampton is going to come in and immediately see north of 200 rush attempts and around 45 targets, according to our fantasy football projections. Hampton was one of the most talented running backs in this class, and if you're looking for a good return on investment, then Hampton will more likely than not be your guy. The Chargers have one of the best offensive lines and ranked in the top half of the NFL in rushing volume. Everyone already knows how good Hampton should be, but I'll probably find myself moving him even higher up the rankings once the season begins.
Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers
- Kendall Overall Ranking: 75
- ESPN ADP: 61.6
This is not a "fade Baker Mayfield" callout. I just think this price is way too expensive for a quarterback that is expected to see some regression in 2025. At this ESPN price, you are likely drafting Mayfield at his ceiling. He finished last season averaging 22.6 points per game, and had tons of career-high marks that will be hard to replicate. Here are his 2024 stats we should be cautious of:
Touchdowns per pass attempt: 7.2%
- Previous career-high: 5.6%
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 7.9 YPA
- Previous career-high: 7.3 YPA
Rushing Yards Per Game: 22.2
- Previous career-high: 10.3
2024 Passing Touchdowns: 41
- Fantasy Life Projected passing touchdowns: 29
Again, I believe Mayfield will still continue to perform at a high level even if he is going into the season with another new offensive coordinator. I just don't like the price on ESPN, especially when there are still quality receivers in that range, and there are solid later-round quarterbacks that you can target.
Jordan Mason | Vikings
- Kendall Overall Ranking: 79
- ESPN ADP: 142.5
Jordan Mason was a waiver wire darling for some last season, and now in a new environment, I really like this one-two punch that the Vikings have going on. In no world should Mason be going this late in drafts.
Injuries played a big role in Mason's year-three breakout, but he finished the season with 789 yards and three touchdowns in 12 games while Christian McCaffrey was sidelined. He also forced a missed tackle on a league-high 37.3% of his carries last season (min. 150 carries), according to Next Gen Stats.
I still believe Aaron Jones has juice left in the tank, but it's never a bad idea to have some insurance behind a running back who's going to be 31 in December. Minnesota knew it needed to improve the run game for the new-ish quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, and Mason put them in the right direction.
I like the idea of Mason complementing Jones in this backfield. We can expect Mason to be more of the early-down grinder with Jones getting more of the pass-catching work. Mason can handle that physical role, and now the Vikings can hope that Jones will stay healthy throughout the entire season as well. We never want injuries, but right now, Mason not only has standalone value in fantasy, but if Jones were to go down, then he would have the upside of more touches in a solid offense. Fantasy Life projections have Mason handling 141 rushing attempts.
Travis Kelce | Chiefs
- Kendall Overall Ranking: 89
- ESPN ADP: 66.5
Okay, this could definitely be the retirement tour for Travis Kelce, but that doesn't mean we should be drafting him this early on ESPN. The Chiefs are already dealing with injuries and potential suspensions in their wide receiver room, but we need to remember what Kelce's down season looked like last year.
Kelce among 43 tight ends with 30+ targets in 2024:
- Yards per route run: 1.43 (19th)
- Yards per target: 6.2 (37th)
- Yards per reception: 8.5 (37th)
Now, the tight end landscape is hellish, and Kelce did still finish as the TE6 in PPR points per game, so it's understandable why he still looks like a solid pick. Kelce is going to be 36 years old in October, and while it could be fun to see the Kelce of old, I'm not banking on that kind of performance. This ESPN ADP puts him in the same range as other players like DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton, both of whom I have ranked higher in my overall rankings.
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