Fantasy Football Trade Value Risers & Fallers From The NFL Trade Deadline: Josh Downs & More

I played in my son’s parents-vs-kids soccer game over the weekend. It was a blast. I even convinced myself I could still keep up with them for a full half (narrator: he could not). The next morning, though, was a different story. Getting out of bed took two tries, and I’ve been walking down the stairs sideways ever since.

The NFL trade deadline felt a lot like that game. Tuesday was fun with all the rumors and notifications. Now we’re dealing with the fallout. The values we had for a few players just last week don’t hold anymore. So, let’s look at whose stock moved the most and who’s worth going after in trades.

Fantasy Football Trade Value Risers & Fallers - Week 10

Josh Downs | Chiefs

Let me play devil’s advocate for a second. Of the 46 WRs with a 15+% target rate, Josh Downs ranks 42nd in YPRR with just three more yards than his former 34-year-old teammate. He had just one receiving TD and had generated fewer first downs than Tre Tucker. But anyone watching the Chiefs’ offense knew about their struggles in the passing game.

Open Score: 25th (Downs), 50th (Worthy)
(PFF) Man Coverage Grade: 27th (Downs), 44th (Worthy), 132nd (Rice)

Downs adds reliability to a receiver corps that was hard to trust each week. In the three games before Patrick Mahomes’ elbow injury, the WRs had one TD among the four with at least five targets. They had just five explosive plays, and they were creating first downs or a score on just 5.3% of their routes. I’d expect Downs to overlap with Rashee Rice as he gets acclimated to the offense, but should soon work as the slot or Z-receiver to be the tide that lifts all boats for the Chiefs.

Keenan Allen | 49ers

So, like I was just talking about Mahomes needing more receivers, Brock Purdy could use the same. I mean, look at who was earning targets from him just last week.

If I had to guess, Mike Evans’ Achilles tendinitis keeps him sidelined until the 49ers’ divisional rematch against the Seahawks. Maybe by then Evans will remember Trevon Diggs is on the team. But without Evans, Purdy has thrown to an SF WR on just 37.4% of his passes (lowest rate among all starters). Doing more with less is (and should be) a bullet in Purdy’s MVP case. Regardless, giving him a receiver who can at least earn targets is a step in the right direction.

Targets per Route Run: 27.8%, 8th (out of 26 qualifiers – min. 20% target rate)
TPRR in Obvious Passing Situations: 25.6%, 11th
(PFF) Zone Coverage Grade: 72.4, 27th (out of 90)

Keep in mind, though, Allen was running a route on just 68% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks. We should anticipate Allen being a full-time player for the 49ers. Let’s not test the powers of the electrical substation so quickly. However, with limited options, Allen should have FLEX appeal to close out the season.

Tyler Warren | Colts

I guess today’s article is just all about the Colts, eh?

Well, to be fair, I don’t usually talk about TEs from this perspective. Unless we’re looking at the Brock Bowerses (not a TE) or Trey McBrideses of the world, their weekly usage is too subjective to gauge their value. But for Warren, there’s a fair case his workload will increase.

Cross off the first three names on the list from the Colts’ season-long UR stats and Daniel Jones will be down to guys that have a combined 26 targets on the year. Between Treadwell, Dulin, Burks, Gould, and Westbrook-Ikhine, the highest single-season yardage total is 497 yards. And by the aDOT column, most of them play farther downfield. With Jones averaging the eighth-lowest passing depth of any starter, Warren stands alone in the short area of the field, which may raise his 24% target rate (fifth-highest) even closer to the top of the TE ranks.

Let’s Make A Deal

Honestly, trades might be tougher to navigate for the next few weeks. Or, at worst, there’ll need to be some tale-spinning here. Because for each of these guys, the narrative isn’t just about what they’ve done. It’s what they could do (will do!) over the remaining weeks of the season. Anyway, I found a few trades over at Yahoo’s market that could serve as a framework for your future negotiations.

The second I read this one, I knew our fantasy football trade analyzer would hate it. Take the names out of it and think about what’s on either side. A WR3 (w/ upside) and a WR4 for, at best, an RB3 (w/ contingent value). If you want to capitalize on a (perceived) uptick in Allen’s value, let’s aim higher by either adding in a more productive piece or acquiring skill players that may not start producing at a high level until closer to the playoffs.

Now, I’ll inject some reality. If someone is looking to move off Josh Jacobs, they’d likely want an RB to replace him. A short-term option like Corey Kiner should suffice. But at least the starting point is there to initiate a conversation. Let’s look at one other trade.

So, here’s the flipside to the “Tyler Warren to the moon” argument. The Colts’ schedule ranks 21st in TE matchups per our fantasy football strength of schedule tool. Plus, we don’t know what other changes HC Shane Steichen will implement before the season’s end. We could see Anthony Richardson or Riley Leonard under center in the final month. Accordingly, it’d make sense to cash out on the idea that Warren moves into the upper echelon in TE targets. Which still could be true, but their quality may have folks regretting that they hung onto him.