Fantasy Football Vibe Check: Why Rico Dowdle Might Be Fool's Gold

Optimizing quarterback streaming hit the point of sorting by fantasy points per game, so we’re pivoting to identifying major shifts in value after the most recent weekend’s action.  My daughter would roll her eyes out of her skull right now if she knew Daddy used the term "vibe check" in public—but hey, trajectory matters.

High Vibin'

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns

October means out with the old and in with the new for the Brownies. A rather nasty-looking knee injury to stalwart David Njoku forced a page-turning event for this Cleveland squad. A runway’s now cleared for the undrafted first-year battery nobody ever heard of this summer, but is refusing to be denied any longer.

A subject of my first deep sleeper piece at FL months ago, Dillon Gabriel somehow marks the 41st quarterback to start a regular-season game for the Browns this century! Wow. Well, forty-one good turns deserve another, or something like that.

Kidding aside, Gabriel’s quick-decision-making ability (2.48-second release time) meshes perfectly in Cleveland’s system, playing close to the line of scrimmage with talented pass-catchers on the receiving end. Gabriel also happens to lead the entire NFL in tight end target rate (33.7%) with just one viable pass-catcher left in the room.

Enter rookie Harold Fannin Jr., who popped early on for a Week 1 TE6 finish (7-63-0) but faded considerably since, constantly competing for targets with the time-tested Njoku. However, after the veteran left in the fourth quarter Sunday, Fannin Jr. immediately ascended to an every-down role for CLE (85.7% route participation), leading all players in targets (4), receptions (3), and yards (40).

Cleveland’s offense may stink, sure, but no one drops back more. There’s only been three QBs to drop back +55 times in a single game all season (none in a month by the way), and Gabriel’s already got one in two starts. Grab a piece of the Fannin Jr. vibes pie before it’s gone.

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Kimani Vidal definitively ended the Chargers’ backfield sweepstakes before it started, with an added bonus —supposed NFL insiders taking one on the chin for proclaiming Hassan Haskins as the clear lead back in L.A. (sad trombone sound)

In no time at all, Vidal outpaced alleged starter Haskins in both touch-load and efficiency, putting up some strong underpinning metrics in the process: +0.53 fantasy points/snap, 6.9 yards/attempt, 3.4 yards after contact/carry, 3 missed tackles forced, 22% explosive rush rate, 19% target/route. Impressive stuff going forward, especially considering the contextual environment of strong QB play and coaching.

Combining quantity with quality on my Comet-enhanced chart below (download Comet here, it's awesome), there’s nobody vibin’ harder in the Bolts’ backfield right now than Vidal, who could change the course of this fantasy season if this keeps up.

Honorable High Vibe Mentions

• Drake Maye, QB, NE
• Brian Thomas, WR, JAX
• Matthew Golden, WR, GB
• Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
• Bam Knight, RB, ARI
• Oronde Gadsden, TE, LAC

Lowkey Bad Vibes

Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers

(ducks)

Get ready for the double-secret vibes reversal, knowing I may catch major heat here. After what can only be described as a mind-blowing two-game run for the Panthers (53-389-1; 7-84-1), everyone’s clamoring for Rico Dowdle to usurp the starting RB job. Sorry, nothing kills me more than playing fantasy party pooper — but you’ll find me sprinting in the opposite direction of the crowd on this one.

Most single-game scrimmage yards by a Panther, seventh player in 45 years with back-to-back +225-yard games — take any of the amazing historical Dowdle stats you want, I’m not budging. Flag planted.

What is 3.0 yards/attempt, 1.2 yards after contact/carry, 39% success, and zero explosive rushes? If you guessed Rico Dowdle’s month-long stat line before transforming into LaDainian Tomlinson, you’d be right!

Carolina’s leading the NFL in yards before contact/rush (an O-line stat), aided by facing MIA + DAL; two of the most injured, porous, and poor-tackling teams this side of the Mississippi. Dowdle’s obviously a start until Hubbard returns, but I’d start vibing toward the eject button while his value’s still through the fantasy roof.

UPDATE: Asked if Rico Dowdle earned the right to be the Panthers’ starter, HC Dave Canales replied, “We’ll see.” Maybe it’s me, but growing up, that basically meant no.

The Entire Tennessee Titans Franchise

No, your faithful narrator’s not dogpiling the lowly Titans, who just fired HC Brian Callahan — but saying "they’re down bad" is a massive understatement. Since most of the words that come to mind to describe this TEN offense will get me a bar of soap to the mouth, let’s just do it with numbers…

• 232.2 Yards Per Game: Last
• -0.21 EPA Per Play: Last
• 3.9 Yards Per Play: Last
• 19.9 Average Drive Distance: Last
• 1.4 First Downs Per Drive: Last
• 1.2 Points Per Drive: Last
• 81.8 Rushing Yards Per Game: Last
• 55.0% Completion Rate: Last
• 18.5 Completions Per Game: Last
• 3 Passing TD: Last
• 24 Sacks Allowed: Last
• 28.0% Third Down Conversion Rate: Last

Honorable Down Vibe Mentions

• Kenneth Walker, RB, SEA
• Justin Fields, QB, NYJ
• TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE