IDP Fantasy Football Starts For Week 6: Xavier Watts, Jalen Carter & More

Week 6 has 14 games with Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, and Minnesota on a bye, so the pool is a little thinner than usual. I went through the offenses one at a time and asked the same questions I ask every week. For linebackers, how many tackles does this offense give to off-ball LBs, how often does it run, and what personnel does it use?

For defensive linemen, how often does this offense give up pressure, which spot on the line is giving it up, and how many tackles does it hand to edge rushers and tackles? For defensive backs, how many tackles does this offense give to safeties, and does the personnel and run rate keep them near the action?

Everything below is season data through Week 5, with last-three-week splits when they tell a different story. A few of these picks hang on injury news, and I flag those as I go.

Linebackers To Start In Week 6 IDP Fantasy Football

Three offenses are tied for the most tackles allowed to off-ball linebackers at 21.0 per game. They're Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Chicago. The average among teams playing this week is 17.7. Indianapolis is right behind at 20.8, then Buffalo at 19.8 and Arizona at 19.6. That list is where I started, and then I narrowed it down by how often each offense runs, what personnel it puts on the field, and how stable the linebacker snaps are.

D'Marco Jackson, Chicago Bears (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Atlanta is the most run-heavy offense in the league. The Falcons have run on 51.3% of their plays this season and 53.8% over the last three weeks, and Baltimore is the only other team above 50% in that stretch. A lot of those runs come out of heavy personnel too. Atlanta used 12 personnel on 33.3% of its snaps over the last three weeks and 13 personnel on another 13.4%. An offense that likes to run with extra tight ends is going to put a lot of work in front of the middle of the defense, and the Falcons have given off-ball linebackers 19.4 tackles per game, above that 17.7 average. Basically, using a quote from Doug Collins on Michael Jordan: give Bijan Robinson the ball, and everyone else get the hell outta the way. Cleaned up, of course.

The part I can't promise you is the role. T.J. Edwards left early in the second quarter last week with a hamstring injury after only 23 snaps, and I'm assuming he stays out. If he does, Jackson is the every-down linebacker as the green dot. He played 47 snaps last week once Edwards went down, with 18 against the run and 26 in coverage, and he finished with 4 tackles. I'm not going to tell you that line jumped off the page, but he looks quicker than Edwards. I'm betting on the role and the opponent, and that's a good pairing. Devin Bush played 60 snaps and had 8 tackles with 2 TFLs, so he's the other Chicago linebacker who benefits if Atlanta keeps running.

Just confirm Edwards’ status before putting Jackson in your lineup.

Anthony Hill, Tennessee Titans (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Indianapolis gives off-ball linebackers 20.8 tackles per game, fourth most in the league and well above the 17.7 average. This isn't a run-heavy offense. The Colts run on 41.0% of their plays and 40.3% over the last three weeks, and they average just 3.33 yards per carry in that stretch. What they do is keep a second tight end on the field. They used 12 personnel on 35.9% of their snaps over the last three weeks (34.5% on the season) and 13 personnel on another 13.1%. They throw short on 69.3% of their dropbacks for the season, and Tennessee plays zone on 82.3% of its snaps. Short throws against that much zone get tackled by linebackers who are sitting in the middle of the field.

Hill is on the field for everything. He played 62, 72, 58, 61, and 63 snaps this season, and last week he was on the field for all of Tennessee's snaps. He's had 24 to 39 coverage snaps and 27 to 36 run-defense snaps every week, so he's neither a run-down nor a pass-down player. His tackles have gone 16, 10, 8, 7, and 5, which is 46 in total, and 18 of them were solo.

That slope is the reason I'm not more excited. The 16 came in Week 1 on 36 run-defense snaps, and the run-defense snaps have settled around 27 over the last two weeks. What’s interesting is that Hill’s tackles have gone down since Cedric Gray’s snaps have increased. However, I'm expecting a full-time linebacker against a top-five funnel, and his floor is the 5 to 8 tackles he's been getting lately. Tennessee also plays base on 44.0% of its snaps over the last three weeks, so he stays on for the heavier Colts looks.

Dorian Williams, Buffalo Bills (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Las Vegas is one of the three offenses tied for the most tackles allowed to off-ball linebackers at 21.0 per game, and it gets there differently from most. The Raiders used 12 personnel on 56.6% of their snaps over the last three weeks (40.6% on the season) and 11 personnel on just 9.6%. They also use 21 personnel on 16.9% of their snaps for the season. They've thrown on 65.2% of their plays in that stretch, but the run game is the problem. They're at 2.99 yards per carry on the season and 3.14 over the last three, with an EPA per rush of -0.26 on the season. So they keep putting extra tight ends and backs on the field, and the plays keep finishing in front of the linebackers. They throw short on 67.5% of their dropbacks over the last three weeks, and Buffalo plays zone on 81.9% of its snaps, so the short throws go straight to the linebackers' zones.

Buffalo has leaned on its base defense against heavy personnel, going from 40.3% of snaps on the season to 46.5% over the last three weeks. The Bills are getting away from their dime looks. Williams has been a steady tackler through all of it. His tackles have gone 9, 6, 9, 7, and 9, which is 40 in five games, and he hasn't been below 6 in any of them. His snaps have gone 50, 35, 47, 51 and 62, and last week's 62 was a season high, with 21 run-defense snaps, 34 in coverage and 7 pass-rush snaps. He was targeted 3 times.

I'd flag one thing. Only 17 of those 40 tackles were solo, and last week was 1 solo and 8 assists, so his total depends on teammates making the first contact. That's fine against an offense whose runs don't gain yards, since the plays still end near him.

Nate Landman, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Arizona gives up 19.6 linebacker tackles per game, but this is a different kind of matchup than the first three. The Cardinals don't run much. They're at 34.9% on the season and 31.5% over the last three weeks. What they do is throw short (72.8% of their throws, fifth-highest in the league), and the Rams play zone on 63.6% of their snaps this season. A short throw into a zone defense lands in front of a linebacker, and Landman is the one who makes the tackle. Arizona also used 13 personnel on 27.8% of its snaps over the last three weeks, the highest rate in the league in that stretch.

Landman had 13 tackles last week (8 solo), up from 8 the week before and 3 the week before that. 9 of last week's tackles were run stops on 28 run-defense snaps, and I wouldn't expect that again against a team that runs on less than a third of its plays. The thing I like more is that he made 8 tackles in Week 4 with only 2 run stops. The volume is there without them. I liked his aggressive nature near the LOS, as he had a TFL and 4 stuffed runs, resulting in a 14.3% stuff rate. A stuff is a running play that is stopped at or behind the LOS.

The Rams played dime on 54.4% of their snaps last week, which is the most in the league, and since he’s the green dot, he’s not leaving the field. He played 51 of the Rams' 57 snaps. Landman played with a bit of extra juice on Monday, and he was all over the field. The shoulder didn’t look like an issue.

Defensive Line Players To Start in Week 6 IDP Fantasy Football

The defensive line picks come from pressure first and tackle floor second. The average pressure rate allowed among the teams playing this week is 39.8%. Carolina is the outlier at 51.7%.

Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Carolina Panthers)

Carolina has given up pressure on 51.7% of its dropbacks, the highest rate of any team playing this week, and that goes up to 57.4% when the Panthers get blitzed.

Jalen Carter should see an interior offensive line that’s susceptible to pressure. Carolina's center and right guard have each been charged with pressure on 7.9% of the team's dropbacks, and the left guard is at 5.1%. The pass-blocking numbers by player agree. Luke Fortner at center has allowed 15 pressures on 185 pass-block snaps (8.1%), and on true pass sets that's 11 on 93 (11.8%). Guard Robert Hunt is at 12 on 185 (6.5%), with the same 11.8% on true pass sets. So there are two soft spots inside, and Carter will see them whenever he's inside. Carolina also gives defensive tackles 8.5 tackles per game, above the 7.3 average.

Carter had a big Week 5 with 55 snaps, 39 of them rushing the passer. He had 5 pressures, 2 sacks, 3 TFLs, and 5 tackles, which is easily his best week of the five, since he had 3, 1, 3, and 1 tackles in the first four. I don't expect 3 TFLs again. His Week 4 was a heavy pass-rush game, with 52 of his 65 snaps rushing the passer and 3 pressures, and he's had 16 pressures and 3 sacks over the five games. Carolina also runs on only 33.6% of its plays, so the run-defense snaps that feed a tackle's total are limited (he had 16 last week and 13 the week before). This one is a pass-rush play first.

I think Carter is one of the top IDLs of the week.

David Bailey, New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)

New England has allowed pressure on 46.8% of its dropbacks, the fourth-highest among teams playing this week, and 47.9% over the last three weeks. When the Patriots get blitzed, it goes to 55.8%. They give edge rushers 11.4 tackles per game (the average is 9.9) and defensive tackles 10.0, the second most in the league. Their sack rate is 5.9%, and they're only running on 41.7% of their plays, so the pressure is coming mostly on passing downs.

The individual matchup is Morgan Moses. On 172 pass-block snaps, he's allowed 13 pressures (7.6%), which includes 2 sacks and 2 QB hits, and his pass-blocking loss rate is 8.8%. That isn't a tackle you can't beat, but it isn't a soft spot either. New England's right tackle spot is at 8.6% in the team data, which is measured against all dropbacks and not his snaps. I'd call it a neutral individual matchup for Bailey. It's not the kind of matchup I'd pick a player for on its own, and it's not one I'd run from either.

The weaker spots on the Patriots' line are inside. Jared Wilson at center has 8 pressures on 196 snaps (4.1%), but on true pass sets it's 8 on 97 (8.2%), and his grade is the lowest on the line. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker is at 9.0% on true pass sets, and tackle Will Campbell has 11 pressures on 174 snaps (6.3%) and a sack. The team-level numbers and the Jets' blitz usage are why I still like the game.

What helps Bailey is how the Jets use him. They've blitzed on 47.4% of their snaps over the last three weeks (40.6% on the season), and they rush four on only 45.7% of their snaps in that stretch. That's an unusual amount of help against an offense that gives up 55.8% pressure when it's blitzed. Bailey's snaps have gone 34, 38, 44, 69, and 54 over five games, and his tackles have gone 4, 3, 5, 6, and 7. He had 17 solo tackles out of those 25. His run-defense snaps have been 6, 12, 17, 38, and 18, and his pass-rush snaps were 28, 21, 18, 27, and 29. Week 4 was his biggest workload, at 69 snaps with 38 against the run, but he only had 1 pressure and no sacks in it. Last week he had 3 TFLs, 9 pressures, and 3 sacks on those 29 rush snaps. The sacks are the part I'd let go of. He has 5 sacks in five games and 19 pressures, so the pressure total is the real signal.

Bailey is strengthening his floor with the tackles, and the sacks are providing the week-winning upside.

Abdul Carter, New York Giants (vs. New Orleans Saints)

The other Carter this week.

New Orleans has allowed pressure on 42.0% of its dropbacks for the season and 44.3% over the last three weeks, and the problem is at tackle. Taliese Fuaga is the matchup, and he's the reason I like this one. He's played all 224 pass-block snaps and has allowed 20 pressures (8.9%), including 3 sacks and 17 hurries. His pass-blocking grade is the third lowest of the 55 tackles I have with at least 150 snaps, and his pressure rate is the sixth highest. It's worse on true pass sets, where he's allowed 17 pressures on 118 snaps (14.4%). Inside, the Saints are in much better shape. Erik McCoy at center (2.1%) and Cesar Ruiz at right guard (1.7%) rarely allow pressure, so this is an edge matchup. I’m not too worried about Carter getting matched up with the interior line.

The Giants help by sending extra rushers. They've blitzed on 46.4% of their snaps over the last three weeks (37.0% on the season) and rush four on 51.8% of their snaps in that stretch. The Saints see the blitz on 31.3% of their dropbacks, and they've given up pressure on 44.3% of them when they do. Their sack rate is 5.8%.

I like Carter for the pass rush, and I want to be straight about the tackle floor. His pass-rush snaps have gone 32, 27, 34, 37, and 33, with 6, 1, 1, 8, and 4 pressures, and he has 2 sacks and 2 TFLs in five games. His tackles have been 3, 3, 0, 3, and 5, and only 4 of those 14 were solo. He's played 47, 54, 55, 61, and 53 snaps, with 15 to 26 run-defense snaps every week, so the opportunity is there. Week 4 was his best pass-rush game, with 8 pressures and no sacks. The Saints only run on 32.9% of their plays (33.7% over the last three) and average 3.53 yards per carry, so the run-stuffing tackles are limited. This one depends on sacks and hits. If your league is tackle-heavy, Bailey above is the better play. But Carter carries sack upside for big play (Big3) formats.

Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Las Vegas has allowed pressure on 42.7% of its dropbacks for the season and 45.0% over the last three weeks, and the Raiders give edge rushers 10.8 tackles per game, above the 9.9 average. The individual matchup is DJ Glaze, and it's an average one. He's allowed 11 pressures on his pass-block snaps (5.7%), including 1 sack and 1 QB hit, and his pass-blocking loss rate is 8.9%. That's not a tackle I'd expect Rousseau to dominate, and it's not one I'd worry about either. The weaker spots on the line are elsewhere. The left guard spot has been charged with 18 pressures (9.4% of team dropbacks, the highest of any spot), the right guard with 8.4%, and the left tackle with 7.9%, so Rousseau gets more of a boost from the team-level picture than from this one-on-one.

The Raiders are an offense that doesn't hurt you on the ground. They're at 2.99 yards per carry on the season, and they've thrown on 65.2% of their plays over the last three weeks. They face the blitz on only 24.5% of their dropbacks, which is a reason Buffalo's front matters. The Bills rush four on 71.0% of their snaps, so Rousseau is winning on his own.

His production backs that up. He played 58, 41, 53, 60 and 64 snaps in five games, with 35, 28, 32, 34 and 46 of them rushing the passer. That's 39 pressures in total (22.3% rate)l, 6 sacks and 8 TFLs. His tackles have gone 4, 3, 8, 4, and 1. Last week was the low-tackle game, but he had 6 pressures on 46 pass-rush snaps. The 8 tackles and 4 TFLs in Week 3 are the upside, and I wouldn't count on them. The pressure is where his upside comes from, and that’s what I’m banking on this week.

Defensive Backs To Start In IDP Fantasy Football For Week 5

For defensive backs, I start with tackles allowed to safeties. The average among the teams playing this week is 8.8 per game, and Chicago is the clear leader at 13.0, with the Rams (11.6) and the 49ers (11.4) behind them. Seattle is fourth at 11.0.

This week I also have alignment data for each of these four. I have their box snaps week by week, and their season-long rates for deep safety and the slot. A safety who spends time in the box is closer to the run game, and a deep safety usually tackles after a play has already gotten past the first level.

Xavier Watts, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Chicago Bears)

Chicago gives safeties 13.0 tackles per game, which is 1.4 more than the next team and well above that 8.8 average. The Bears ran on 47.8% of their plays over the last three weeks (45.9% on the season) and put 12 or 13 personnel on the field on half of their snaps this season (33.1% in 12 and 16.9% in 13). They also threw short on 70.5% of their dropbacks over the last three, and Atlanta played zone on 68.5% of its snaps in that same stretch. So the short throws go to a defense that's mostly in zone, and the safeties are the ones closing on the catch. Watt is also closing in on the receivers.

Watts has played at least 95% of Atlanta's snaps every week, and he's mostly a deep safety. Over the season, he's lined up at deep safety on 68.2% of his snaps and in the slot on 15.6%. His box snaps have gone 9, 9, 8, 9 and 15, which is 14.3%, 15.8%, 12.7%, 13.4% and 21.1% of his snaps. Last week's 15 box snaps are his most, and that was the week he had 10 tackles. Atlanta is one-high on 64.3% of its snaps for the season (62.9% over the last three weeks), so a lot of Watts' work is as that deep safety.

Even so, his tackles aren't all about the box. He had 4 in Week 1, 7 in Week 2, 5 in Week 3, and 8 in Week 4, with 8 or 9 box snaps each time, and 10 last week with 15. In Week 3, he had 55 coverage snaps and still finished with 5 tackles, an interception, and a pass breakup. Last week he was targeted 5 times, with 4 catches for 27 yards (5 solo tackles and 5 assists), and had a pass breakup. That tells me a lot of the tackles are coming after catches and runs that get past the line, which is what a team that throws short and runs on close to half its plays feeds a deep safety. That's 34 tackles in five games.

Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

The Rams give safeties 11.6 tackles per game, second most in the league, and they give outside corners 11.2, which ties for the most. They use 13 personnel more than any other team (30.8% on the season and 23.6% over the last three weeks) and 11 personnel on 64.1% of their snaps over the last three, which leaves almost no room for 12 (11.8%). They've run on just 28.3% of their plays in that stretch. The quarterback has time too. Los Angeles allows pressure on only 29.3% of its dropbacks, second lowest in the league, so the throws develop and the safeties tackle after the catch.

Arizona is in base on 50.7% of its snaps, two-high on 69.2% and zone on 80.8%, and Baker is on the field for everything. He's played 98.5% or more of the snaps every week. His box usage has been rising. His box snaps have gone 5, 15, 17, 24, and 15, which is 9.8%, 22.4%, 34.0%, 39.3%, and 23.4% of his snaps. Over the season, he's lined up at deep safety on 61.1% of his snaps and in the slot on 11.9%.

The box rate doesn't explain his tackles on its own. He had 5 tackles in Week 1 with 5 box snaps, 11 in Week 2 with 15, 4 in Week 3 with 17, 5 in Week 4 with 24, and 11 last week with 15. What lines up better is run stops, since the two 11-tackle games had 4 and 3 run stops and the other three games had none. He also had an interception and 2 pass breakups in Week 4. Last week he had a sack, and he has 2 sacks on 13 pass-rush snaps across five games, so Arizona sends him. Week 2 was a game where he allowed 6 catches on 6 targets for 117 yards.

His floor is 4 or 5 tackles when the run game doesn't show up, and the Rams run so rarely that I can't promise it will. I still like it because the Rams have thrown on 71.7% of their plays over the last three weeks, the highest rate in the league, and the tackle funnel at safety is 11.6.

Quan Martin, Washington Commanders (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

San Francisco gives safeties 11.4 tackles per game, the third-most in the league, and the tackles are going to safeties and not corners. The 49ers' outside corners (7.0) and slot corners (4.4) are both well under the averages. They've run on 44.7% of their plays this season and 43.9% over the last three, and they use 21 personnel (two backs and one tight end) on 32.7% of their snaps, the highest rate in the league. They throw short on 62.8% of their dropbacks and use screens on 14.0% of their plays. Washington plays zone on 76.1% of its snaps and is two-high on 72.8%, the highest rate in the league.

Martin is a deep safety, and that changes how I'm writing him up. He's lined up at deep safety on 82.6% of his snaps this season and in the slot on 9.3%, and he's in the box on only 14 of 247 (5.7%). His box snaps have gone 0, 0, 4, 6, and 4, which is 0.0%, 0.0%, 7.3%, 10.2%, and 4.8% of his snaps. So he isn't the safety who fits the run against a lead blocker. He tackles after a play has already gotten past the first level, and that fits his 5 assists on 8 tackles last week.

What I like is that his role keeps growing. His share of Washington's snaps has gone 40%, 54%, 86%, 89%, and 99%, and his snaps have gone 21, 29, 55, 59, and 83. He tackled 2, 5, 5, and 8 in the four games I have tackle data for, and he's been targeted only once in each of Weeks 2 through 4 and not at all last week. Last week 57 of his snaps were in coverage, and he wasn't targeted once. San Francisco's offense has a +0.36 EPA per pass and averages 4.63 yards per carry, so it does gain yards when it connects.

Of the four, this is the riskiest tackle floor. A deep safety with a box rate under 6% will have weeks where the run game never gets to him, and 21 personnel doesn't put him closer to it. He’s making enough plays that he’s someone I’m comfortable starting as a DB3/4.

Brandon Jones, Denver Broncos (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

Seattle gives safeties 11.0 tackles per game, fourth most in the league, and that's where the tackles pile up. The Seahawks' outside corners are at 5.2, and their slot corners at 3.2, which is tied for the lowest of any team playing, and their linebackers are at 16.0, below average. If a ball carrier or a receiver gets tackled against Seattle, it's usually a safety doing it. They've run on 45.5% of their plays this season (40.7% over the last three weeks), with 12 personnel on 35.2% of their snaps over the last three (30.6% for the season) and 21 personnel on 16.5% for the season. They use play-action on 35.2% of their plays. Seattle has also allowed pressure on 46.9% of its dropbacks.

Denver is one-high on 52.9% of its snaps and in base on 49.0% over the last three weeks. Jones has played at least 98% of the snaps every week since Week 1 (94%). He's been at deep safety on 66.0% of his snaps this season and in the slot on 5.8%. His box rate has been 25.4%, 20.4%, 22.2%, 40.0%, and 20.6% of his snaps.

Week 4 is the outlier at 40.0%, and the rest of the weeks are in a tight range around 20% to 25%. Talanoa Hufanga is the other Denver safety, and he's in the box more, at 27.7% for the season, with 41 snaps last week. Hufanga might miss Thursday’s tilt, so it could put Jones all over the field.

Jones had 5 tackles in Week 1, 5 in Week 2, 12 in Week 3, 9 in Week 4, and 4 last week. His 9 in Week 4 came with that 40.0% box rate (26 box snaps), 6 of them solo. His 12-tackle game came with a 22.2% box rate on an 81-snap day with 57 coverage snaps and 10 solo tackles, and the 4-tackle game came with a 20.6% box rate on 63 snaps. So his count swings with the role and the game, and he's the most volatile of the four.

What I like is that he makes plays when the tackles aren't there. He has 2 interceptions in five games, including one last week, along with 2 pass breakups. If you want the safest tackle floor of the four, it isn't Jones. If you want a safety facing an offense that sends a lot of tackles to his position, it might be.

Before You Set Your IDP Fantasy Football Lineups For Week 6

Week 6 statuses can change after Friday's reports. Jackson's whole case depends on T.J. Edwards being out, as does Quan Martin.

Published Oct 14, 2026, 10:25 AM ETUpdated Oct 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET