Matthew Berry's Ride or Die For 2026 Fantasy Football

I was nervous.

Really nervous, actually.

It was August 4th, 2022, and for the first time in my entire life, I was standing on an NFL sideline, holding a microphone.

Earlier that day, it had been announced that I was joining NBC Sports and Football Night in America as a cast member and analyst. For the first time in broadcast history, a fantasy football guy was becoming a full-time member of an NFL pre-game show. And not just any pre-game show, but Football Night in America. You know, the one that’s in primetime every week? The highest-rated show on TV? Yeah, that one.

For the first time, all these Hall of Fame ex-coaches and Superstar ex-players would be joined by a fantasy nerd. A nerd that was, gulp, me.

NBC, as it does every year, was broadcasting the NFL Hall of Fame game—the first preseason game of the season. And for my very first hit … my very first hit on network TV, my very first hit on an NFL sideline, my very first hit in front of famous players, coaches and NBC executives … the FNIA producers wanted “Ride or Die.”

It had, in fact, become a thing.

While at ESPN, I had started a tradition a while back. In 2017, while on my old podcast, I mentioned how much I liked Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt, and that I believed he would win the starting RB job and be a fantasy force. And when my co-hosts pushed back on me, I talked about his talent, that I thought Spencer Ware was “just a guy,” and that I couldn’t stop drafting Hunt. He was my … (searching for a phrase) … “Ride or Die this year!” I said.

And so it was born.

Early in the draft season (think pre-August best ball time), Hunt was going in Round 9 or 10, and when Kareem Hunt exploded in the first game of the season with 246 total yards and 3 touchdowns, we were off to the races. Hunt would ultimately finish as RB4 on a PPG basis that year and, with such a massive debut hit, Ride or Die was born.

And for the most part, they were really, really successful. Josh Jacobs' rookie year in 2019, when he was going in the middle of the Round 4, finished as RB16. My 2021 Ride or Die, proud Fantasy Life investor Austin Ekeler, was going in the late second round. He had his breakout season and finished as RB3.

Which is all great. But that was on my podcast. My audience. This was different. This was national network TV. This was a country full of people who had no idea who the hell I was. This was real football players and coaches looking and judging me and wondering if I “knew ball.”

And even more nerve-wracking? I was going to do the segment with Chris Simms. I really like Chris, and he’s had many great calls in his career, but as Philly fans like to remind him all the time, he was famously down on Jalen Hurts early in Hurts’ career. Including heading into the 2022 season, which was only Jalen’s second full season.

Another gulp.

So, when I tell you I was nervous … DUDE. I WAS NER-VOUS.

All the pressure and insecurity of wondering if I belonged on this stage with all these people, who, you know, “played the game” and new job, first time doing something after 15 years at ESPN, first game of the preseason so there would be a huge audience because everyone is starved for football, and now I was going to tell one of the stars of the show, a former NFL QB himself, that I disagreed with his thoughts on Jalen Hurts and he was, in fact, my Ride or Die.

Hindsight, of course, makes it look obvious, but Hurts was going in Round 7 as QB8 back then, and there were legit questions about whether he was a “franchise QB” and if Philly should have drafted a QB in the previous year’s draft.

Well. The rest, as they say, is history. The hit went reasonably well; critics, executives and the ratings folks were happy, and by the end of the year, Jalen Hurts had finished as the QB1 in all of fantasy football.

And I earned respect from my new NBC teammates, and it definitely had a very positive effect on me for my four years there.

So yeah, Ride or Die is even more meaningful to me than you know.

Which is why it’s such a process these days to decide on it. A lot of pressure on this pick. Especially this year, as this is the first year I am going out on my own, and I’m hoping you will support Fantasy Life and me—which you can do by buying a FantasyLife+ subscription, as we are doing a 30% off FLASH sale with code MB30 today to celebrate Ride or Die. And by signing up for a Guillotine League, which, you know, is only the best way to play fantasy football. By the way, for all paid leagues, we aren’t taking any fees. Every other place where you have paid leagues takes a large fee off the top.

At any rate, if the Fantasy Life company is my real-life Ride or Die, and this is my first year doing this pick for this company, hopefully you can appreciate why it’s such a process these days to decide on it. Again. A lot of pressure on this pick.

Because while I’ve already talked about Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler and Jalen Hurts, in 2023, Amon-Ra St. Brown went from a mid-second-round WR to finish as WR3 in PPG. 2024 Kyler Murray wasn’t great, obviously, but wasn’t actually a disaster. Drafted in Round 6, he finished as QB12 on a PPG basis. So borderline QB1... he was basically a push compared to the cost. And while last year’s pick, Omarion Hampton, missed half the season (and he was picked at the Hall of Fame game again, before the Chargers lost their entire offensive line), when he played, he was good. Hampton was going in Round 4 or 5 around RB20 when I named him Ride or Die, and he finished as RB13 on a PPG basis.

So, yeah. The only pick that played and truly, truly bombed was 2020 Daniel Jones. He finished as QB29. Just brutal. But yes, Daniel, wherever you are, I forgive you. Mostly.

But overall, Ride or Die has a great track record. Of the eight Ride or Dies who actually played, six beat their early-offseason market on a PPG basis, and four of the eight—Hunt, Ekeler, Hurts and Amon-Ra—finished top-four at their position in fantasy points per game. 2018 pick Derrius Guice is excluded because his preseason ACL tear prevented him from playing a regular-season game. But over the years, of the Ride or Die players who actually got on the field, 75% of them have beaten the market. So yeah. No pressure for this year, right?

So before we get to this year’s finalists and announce the winner, I want to quickly talk about the criteria for Ride or Die. It’s not about picking Josh Allen as QB1 and taking a victory lap. It can’t be a player who is already elite. It’s also not about picking a mid- or late-round player and hoping he becomes fantasy relevant.

The idea is about planting a flag before the market gets there. It’s about taking a known player that I believe can take the leap to the next level, be elite and outperform fantasy football ADP to become a key piece that helps you win your league.

No question, I’ve gotten lots of great suggestions this year, and the competition was fierce. But in the end, I narrowed it to five finalists and, ultimately, my 2026 RIDE. OR. DIE.

Quarterback is way too deep this year, and my thought is that there were too many QBs who could have monster years and still not take a leap to the next level because the position, especially at the top, is so deep. So here, in alphabetical order, are your 2026 Fantasy Ride Or Die Finalists:

Finalists For Matthew Bery's 2026 Ride Or Die

Chase Brown | RB | Bengals

Overall, I’m very high on the Bengals offense this year. And while Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase get all the headlines, Chase Brown is right there among the elite fantasy players at his position; people just don’t realize it.

Since Week 9 of 2024—we’re talking 25 games now—Brown is the RB6 in fantasy points per game at 17.9 while averaging 95 scrimmage yards. He’s scored at least 15 PPR points in 16 of those 25 games. This isn’t some six-game stretch we’re extrapolating into infinity because that’s what fantasy analysts do in August when we’ve run out of things to talk about. 25 games is a pretty significant sample. Chase Brown has been an elite fantasy running back for a season and a half. Maybe we should start treating him like one instead of drafting him at RB13 (26th overall—middle of the third round!) on ESPN.

Because it’s not just the front-facing stats. The underlying usage says the same thing. Brown finished sixth among running backs in utilization score last season; his 14.5% target share ranked seventh at the position, and he was top-12 in fantasy points per touch among backs with at least 100 touches. He’s handled 584 touches over the past two seasons, ninth-most among running backs, and he’s still been efficient with them. And with just 30-year-old Samaje Perine and unproven Tahj Brooks as competition, Brown should continue to get a massive workload.

While he doesn’t have a lot of competition for touches, he DOES have proud Fantasy Life investor Joe Burrow, which helps. A lot. Brown averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game with Burrow last year. So with Burrow back, Brown has the role, the receiving usage, the efficiency and the offense. There aren’t many boxes left unchecked.

How It All Goes Wrong For Chase Brown

Making sure I don’t “Daniel Jones it” this year, I also have to consider the downside in each one of these players. And the way it goes wrong with Brown boils down to two players.

First up is actually Samaje Perine. In games when Perine was active last season, Brown’s snap rate dropped to 61%, compared with 89% when Perine was out, and Brown received fewer than 60% of Cincinnati’s red-zone rush attempts.

The other player is Joe Burrow. Specifically, his health. Not surprising, Brown averaged 19.4 points with Burrow and just 9.3 with Jake Browning. Joe Flacco is a massive upgrade over Browning if something happens to Burrow (Brown averaged 16.6 PPG with Flacco last year), but either way, without Burrow, Brown’s production drops, and Burrow has missed at least six games in three of his six NFL seasons. So yes, I love Chase Brown. But, apparently, I’m also drafting Joe Burrow’s wrist, calf, knee and general structural integrity along with him.

Colston Loveland | TE | Bears

You know what’s fun? Tight ends who actually get the football. Colston Loveland was targeted on 25.4% of his routes over his final eight games last season, including the playoffs, and his utilization score over his final 10 games was 90—a number that would have ranked second among all tight ends for the season. In the five games where Loveland got at least a 20% target share, he scored 20-plus fantasy points four times. And when he got seven or more targets, he averaged 99 receiving yards per game. 99! From a tight end! There are wide receivers whose agents would use that number in contract negotiations. And now DJ Moore and his 85 targets from last year are gone, Luther Burden and Kyle Monangai are both banged up, and it’s the second year in Ben Johnson’s system. I’m high on the Bears offense overall this year, and if I was forced to pick a QB Ride or Die candidate, Caleb Williams would have been on the short list (so would Justin Herbert).

Another thing to love about, er, Loveland? He isn’t just compiling underneath catches. He was one of only two tight ends with both a catch rate above 70% and an average depth of target over eight yards among players with at least 50 targets. His 8.7 yards per target ranked third among tight ends with 75-plus targets, while his 9.1-yard aDOT ranked first.

That’s the profile that gets me excited: elite usage plus downfield opportunity plus efficiency. There are very few tight ends with a realistic path to becoming a weekly difference-maker rather than just “a tight end who doesn’t ruin your Sunday”. Loveland is one of them. I have him at TE3 in my fantasy football rankings, same as the market, but I have him higher in my overall ranks, where I have him at 36 and his consensus ADP is 41, going as low as 45 on ESPN.

How It All Goes Wrong For Colston Loveland

The issue is opportunity cost.

At a fourth-round ADP, Loveland doesn’t merely need to be good to be the Ride or Die. He needs to separate. If Luther Burden is fully healthy by Week 1 and Rome Odunze returns to the role he had during the first half of last season, Loveland could lose enough targets to keep him in that Tucker Kraft/Sam LaPorta/Harold Fannin/Kyle Pitts mid-range-TE1 neighborhood. That’s still very useful. It just isn’t what you’re paying for. The positives are that there is a strong floor. Barring injury, Loveland is probably the Ride or Die finalist who I have the hardest time imagining outright busting. But also, at TE3, he’s also the guy I have the toughest time thinking he could make a positional jump over McBride or Bowers. So crazy-high floor and definite upside to separate himself from the mid-tier guys, but is it enough?

Ladd McConkey | WR | Chargers

Justin Herbert. Mike McDaniel. Ladd McConkey. Honestly, I could probably end the analysis there and use the extra words to complain about the Bolts' offensive line injuries hurting Omarion Hampton last year. But since my editors generally expect more than seven words from me, let’s dig in.

We already know what McDaniel can do with talented, efficient receivers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both ranked in the top 10 in yards per route run under McDaniel. And we already know McConkey is talented and efficient. Among receivers with at least 200 targets over the past two seasons, Ladd ranks top 10 in yards per target. In 22 career games with at least a 20% target share, he’s averaged 15.4 fantasy points. And he saw 72 slot targets last season, fourth-most in the NFL. This isn’t hoping McDaniel can turn Ladd into something. It’s giving an already really good player to one of the NFL’s best designers of space.

Then there’s Herbert. His fantasy points per pass attempt were 52% higher with Joe Alt on the field last season. So give Herbert better health and protection, add McDaniel’s scheme, lose Keenan Allen’s 122 targets/22% target share, and put an efficient separator like McConkey in the middle of it? Yeah, baby. Sign me up. I am significantly more bullish than the market here: McConkey’s consensus ADP is WR20 and 43.7 overall (going after pick 50 on ESPN); I have him at WR16 and 34th. I am very in on this Chargers offense, and if Ladd reclaims the 24% target share he earned as a rookie, WR16 might wind up looking conservative.

How It All Goes Wrong For Ladd McConkey

The problem is that there are plenty of versions of this season in which I’m completely right about the Chargers offense and still wrong about Ladd. Quentin Johnston could take another step. Tre Harris could demand more work. McDaniel could make extensive use of all three tight ends. And knowing how much Harbaugh loves to run and how good McDaniel is at designing a run game, maybe Hampton/Mitchell/Vidal get a ton of work as well, limiting McConkey’s volume as it could become a dominant rushing offense that spreads its passing production around rather than funneling it through McConkey.

Plus, because apparently the Chargers are contractually obligated to anger the injury gods every year, Tyler Biadasz is already hurt. I’m betting heavily on Herbert, McDaniel and this offense. But for Ladd to become a truly elite fantasy receiver, he needs to once again become the unquestioned first option rather than merely the best piece of a very productive committee.

DeVonta Smith | WR | Eagles

Sometimes, fantasy analysis is complicated. And sometimes, an incredibly talented player spends four years playing next to a guy who commands almost 30% of his team’s targets, that guy leaves, and we ask: “Hey, think maybe the incredibly talented player gets more targets?”

Welcome to my DeVonta Smith analysis.

A.J. Brown had at least a 28% target share in every one of his four seasons in Philadelphia. Those targets have to go somewhere. And I’m betting a whole lot of them go to the guy who has been one of the most efficient wide receivers in football since the moment he entered the league.

Because here’s the part that matters: Smith doesn’t need to become great. He already is. He’s the only wide receiver in the NFL to average at least 8.5 yards per target in each of the past five seasons. And when Brown has been off the field since 2023, Smith has been targeted on 29% of his routes. For context, last season the only receivers targeted on more than 29% of their routes were Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice and Ja’Marr Chase. That’s the neighborhood we’re talking about. Smith has averaged 17.3 fantasy points in career games in which he’s earned at least a 25% target share and 82 receiving yards when he’s gotten at least seven targets. Only five receivers in the entire NFL averaged more than 82 receiving yards per game last season. The bet here isn’t that Smith suddenly becomes a better football player. It’s that, for the first time, an already elite player gets elite WR1 volume. I have him at WR10 and 24th overall. His consensus ADP is WR14 and 35th overall. You can probably tell where I stand.

How It All Goes Wrong For DeVonta Smith

Of course, being the No. 1 receiver also means getting No. 1 receiver attention from opposing defenses. Smith has spent much of his career benefiting from defenses having to account for A.J. Brown on the other side, and now those safeties and top corners are going to know exactly where No. 6 is. There’s also a (another!) new offensive system under Sean Mannion, and if Jalen Hurts struggles to adjust or Philadelphia’s passing volume isn’t high enough, Smith could be incredibly efficient and still not get the sheer number of opportunities required for a truly elite fantasy season. That’s the concern. Smith’s floor feels extremely sturdy. The question is whether the new volume raises his ceiling as much as I think it does.

Kenneth Walker | RB | Chiefs

There are certain players in fantasy where we spend an entire offseason arguing about what they could do if only they got the opportunity. With Kenneth Walker, we don’t have to wonder. We’ve seen it. In 25 career games (including the playoffs) in which Walker has gotten at least 18 touches, he averages 110 scrimmage yards and 18.2 fantasy points per game. And if you watched Seattle’s run to the Super Bowl last year, you REALLY saw it. Walker averaged 24.7 touches, 139 scrimmage yards and 24.9 fantasy points per game during the Seahawks’ playoff run. 24.9! Apparently the secret to Kenneth Walker being awesome at fantasy football is the Seahawks giving the ball to Kenneth Walker.

And there’s plenty of evidence that production wasn’t some four-game postseason heater. Walker remains one of the most explosive runners in football. 15% of his carries last season went for at least 10 yards, the third-highest rate among running backs with 100-plus carries. Oh, and since he entered the NFL, only Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs have more 20-plus-yard runs. He also ranked second among qualified backs in avoided tackle rate last year. And don’t sleep on Walker as a receiver: since 2023, he ranks sixth among running backs in yards per target among players with at least 100 targets. Put that talent in an offense with Patrick Mahomes that has finished inside the top 10 in red-zone drives in all but one season of his career, and you don’t need a degree in advanced mathematics to figure out why I have Walker RB7 and 13th overall compared to a consensus ADP of RB11 and 19th overall. The ceiling here is not merely RB1. It’s the RB1.

How It All Goes Wrong For Kenneth Walker

So what could go wrong? Health, obviously. Walker stayed healthy last season, but he missed 10 games over his first three NFL seasons, so we can’t pretend the injury risk has disappeared. The bigger fantasy question, though, is receiving volume. For as efficient as Walker has been as a receiver, 2024 under Ryan Grubb’s extremely pass-heavy offense is the only season of his career in which he’s had a target share above 8%. Walker can absolutely return value on his current ADP without catching a ton of passes. But to pay off my ranking—and especially to make good on that overall RB1 ceiling—I’m probably going to need more than that. Because, as it turns out, even I haven’t figured out how to get PPR points without the R part.

So there you have it. The five finalists.

All worthy. You can make a strong case for any of them. All, I believe, will be great this year. But ultimately, there can be only one. Because Ride or Die is about planting a flag. It’s about finding a player where I believe the market is right about the talent but wrong about just how high the ceiling actually goes. That’s who the 2026 RIDE. OR. DIE needs to be.

Matthew Berry's 2026 Ride Or Die Is ...

And this year, that player is ... DEVONTA SMITH!

The thing I keep coming back to is that I don’t need anything new from DeVonta Smith except more. I don’t need him to suddenly become more explosive. I don’t need him to learn how to separate. I don’t need a new quarterback to unlock him or a new coaching staff to teach him how to play wide receiver.

When I was at the NFL Combine this year, I wrote my annual “35 Rumors I heard at the NFL Combine’ article, and one nugget I had in there was that (this was pre-A.J. Brown being traded), speaking with a team source, I was told that Philly believed that, as good as Smith has been, he has another gear. That if he could ever get the kind of target share that Jaxon Smith-Njigba got last year, Smith could have that kind of season. That biggest has since been reported by others over the course of the summer.

And as Dwain McFarland noted in his insane and comprehensive WR Tiers article, there’s a good chance the Eagles use a lot more motion this year under Mannion, as Green Bay ranked fifth in motion while Mannion was part of their offensive staff. And again, A.J. Brown and his 28%-plus target share are gone, with just a rookie WR and a player who has been a part-time player to date in the NFL competing for receiver targets.

That’s ultimately what separates Smith from the other four for me: the floor is already there, but we haven’t seen the ceiling yet.

Barring injury, it’s difficult for me to construct a scenario where Smith simply disappears. He’s too talented, too efficient and too established in this offense. But now take that floor and add true WR1 volume? That’s where things get really interesting.

As I said earlier, when Smith has received at least 25% of the targets in his career, he’s averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game. For comparison, last year’s WR5, George Pickens, averaged 17.2 points per game. The market has him 35th overall and WR14. I have him 24th overall and WR10. And even my ranking may not fully capture the upside. Because if Smith gets the volume I believe is coming without sacrificing the efficiency he’s demonstrated for five straight years, we’re not talking about whether he can beat WR14. We’re talking about whether DeVonta Smith can finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver.

That’s what I want in a Ride or Die. I want a player where the downside case is basically, “He’s still DeVonta Smith,” and the upside case is, “Oh. Holy crap. This is what DeVonta Smith looks like with 140 targets.”

So there it is.

DeVonta Smith. My 2026 Ride or Die.

No pressure, DeVonta.

But, you know.

Please don’t Daniel Jones me.