Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9
Fantasy

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9

John Laghezza breaks down the final game of the Week 9 fantasy football slate, a Monday Night Football clash between the elite Bills offense and the elite Vikings defense.

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Every conceivable mismatched signal clashes head-on when the Buffalo Bills’ unstoppable offense meets Brian Flores’ lockdown Viking defense. Now Minnesota’s pivoting toward veteran Carson Wentz to spark an impotent pass attack that’s failed to throw for +215 yards this season. Something’s gotta give …

Vikings vs. Bills Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 9

*Fantasy Football Rankings listed are Fantasy Life's half-PPR consensus ranks at the time of writing.

BUF_bills-logo.svgBuffalo Bills Fantasy Preview For Week 9

Josh Allen’s such a beast. Easily the most impactful single player in fantasy football, Allen’s a force multiplier for the NFL’s top offense in PPG (33.3), yards/play (6.3), and EPA/play (0.15). Most impressive may be just how well he’s passed the ball (0.26 EPA/dropback, 101.1 passer rating, 8.7 yards/attempt), something often lost when drooling over his 38.6 rushing yards/game and 9 TDs on the ground. Literally not one imaginable scenario you’d sit him.

I’ll extend that same hyperbole to James Cook, who’s quietly the RB8 in points/game (18.8), though still less than a half-point from the top-5. His +80% backfield opportunity share ranks third in the league, and remains a top weekly option even if ceding some goal-line opportunities to the QB. And while it doesn’t sound like much, the most encouraging factor going forward’s the slight, though noticeable uptick in receiving — that 9.5% team target share going back two games matters.

Buffalo’s receiving room presented as a bit of an enigma all year, though one gaining some clarity when DJ Moore’s in the lineup. Counterintuitive as it may seem, even Dalton Kincaid has benefitted from having a true WR1 on the field. Separating for the three games Moore started and finished, targets center around the big three — Moore deep (30.5% target/route, 3.04 yards/route), Kincaid in the intermediate (22.7% target/route, 3.85 yards/route), and Khalil Shakir (20.8% target/route, 1.67 yards/route) underneath. Start the first two at least with extreme prejudice. Even in a rough matchup, we can’t afford to doubt Josh Allen’s greatness.

  • Start: Josh Allen (QB2), James Cook (RB11), DJ Moore (WR25), Dalton Kincaid (TE15)
  • Sit: Keon Coleman (WR57)
  • Sleeper: Khalil Shakir (WR42)

MIN_vikings-logo.svgMinnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview For Week 9

Sit down in a quiet spot. Now think to yourself just how excited you’ll allow yourself to get over Carson Wentz — I keep telling myself this for the Kevin O’Connell kingmaker narrative alone. Honestly, the sample’s small, but there’s talent in Minnesota, and what little we did see from the ancient Wentz analytically early on (+0.28 EPA/attempt, 106.4 passer rating) sure beat anything Kyler put on film. Not to mention Buffalo’s defense features the league’s worst tackle success rate (46.7%) and still grades out terribly despite incorporating a cakewalk layup versus the Ravens’ emergency QB Joe Fagnano.

No one’s happier about the shift under center than alpha WR Justin Jefferson, who popped off for (8-92-2) back in Week 1 on elite advanced metrics (28.9% target/route, 3.02 yards/route), good for an overall WR3 finish. Again, the upside is easy to see attached to Wentz as a pocket passer predicated on executing timed throws throughout the scheme… a far cry from Murray’s more wild style. Keep an eye on both fellow Viking top targets T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison as well — there’s always a chance these Bills circle the wagons on offense regardless of matchup, turning Monday Night into a shootout.

Unfortunately, Jordan Mason’s return accomplished the very worst for Viking RB managers, essentially canceling out the entire backfield. Face it, veteran Aaron Jones was never going to be able to sustain the massive workload experienced when Mason went down. Then even when given a runway, the former fifth-round UDFA failed to run away with the job due to a lack of proficiency in the pass game. The worst … a dead split in a low-volume, low-scoring offense. No wonder Fantasy Life’s resident projection expert Dwain McFarland places neither in the top-30 despite a seemingly soft spot. Start if you must, sit where you can …

  • Start: Justin Jefferson (WR10), T.J. Hockenson (TE11), Aaron Jones (TE36)
  • Sit: Jordan Mason (RB31)
  • Sleeper: Carson Wentz (QB23), Jordan Addison (WR39)

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