New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers Matchup Breakdown For Week 2 Fantasy Football

• Spread: Packers -5.5
• O/U: 44.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  GB 26, NYJ 20

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview

Jordan Love and the Packers took me on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride Sunday, starting out unstoppable in the first half (8.5 yards/play) — until becoming a turnstile up front on the O-line and looking lost in the second (-0.29 EPA/play, 2 turnovers). In GB’s defense, the zebras played a major role in the fourth quarter with multiple game-changing calls, and I can’t help but wonder how I’d feel about them had they walked away victorious.

Anyway, lucky for Green Bay, they won’t have to face Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel every week. And while Will McDonald and David Bailey anchored a solid Jets’ front in Week 1, the majority of that result lies with the Titans’ ineptitude. As a Jets fan, I know never to get too excited. 

Packers better get right this weekend, starting with a ground game I’d label as ineffective if trying to be nice. Much stronger words would be a better descriptor for 66 total rushing yards (in a game they led after all three quarters, mind you). In fact, only the Broncos ran for fewer yards in Week 1. Yuck. The rest of the spreadsheet will leave you looking for a barf bag, starting with MarShawn Lloyd.

So far, chasing RB draft helium currently owns the pole position for fastest way to last place. If you paid up for Jonathon Brooks and/or MarShawn Lloyd, you’re down pretty bad right now. Lloyd did lead the Packers' backfield with an encouraging 65% backfield opportunity share, but played zero 3rd/4th downs, caught zero balls on a single target, and ceded 80% of goal-to-go snaps to Chris Brooks. Not great, Bob.

Christian Watson looks like an early correct answer (6-147-2), with a giant ditto for sophomore Matthew Golden, who earned a dozen targets (30.0% target/route, 2.38 yards/route). Tucker Kraft also looked great in a limited sample; the track record for efficiency alone makes him a projectable backend TE1 (27.3% target/route, 2.95 yards/route). 

When it comes to Jayden Reed, timing’s going to drive you nuts — he played just five 2-WR snaps for a Packer offense ranking bottom-3 in 11-personnel rate (48.0%). Audible sigh.

• Start: Jordan Love (QB14), Christian Watson (WR11), Tucker Kraft (TE8), Matthew Golden (WR30)
• Sit: Jayden Reed (WR46)
• Sleeper: MarShawn Lloyd (RB27)

New York Jets Fantasy Preview

J-E-T-S ... JETS! JETS! JETS! JETS! To no one’s surprise (well, if you follow my work at least), New York went into Music City and spanked the Titans. Currently top-3 in yards/play (+1.9) and yards/pass attempt differentials (4.48), even as a Jets fan, I’m worried it had way more to do with top-down malfunctions in the TEN offense. But we’ll see…

Geno Smith proved viably accurate (79.2% completion), dropping back 26 times for 24 attempts without throwing a single ball off target. Not too shabby. Volume’s going to suffer as New York moves slowly (7.4 avg play clock at snap), though a consolidated target tree should yield a couple of fantasy asset hits each weekend.

Garrett Wilson carries one of fantasy’s most solid floors as one of the clearest top targets in the NFL, managing a (6-79-0) line in a snoozefest. Just make sure to jam the former first-rounder’s current advanced stats (33.3% target/route, 3.76 yards/route) in a negative script before underestimating any potential ceiling.

Adonai Mitchell is going to serve in a predictable deep-threat role, with weekly streaming potential in a suppressed scoring environment. The player I’m trying to make room to stash, however, is rookie Kenyon Sadiq. While I don’t think we can start him yet based on current workload limitations (UR 43), the physical talent’s clearly there, and I believe that juicy 25% target/route rate will mostly hold even as routes increase — which they will. According to NextGen stats, he got over the 20mph mark on his scoring run. Truly impressive for a TE.

• Start: Breece Hall (RB15), Garrett Wilson (WR15)
• Sit: Kenyon Sadiq (TE26)
• Sleeper: Adonai Mitchell (WR58)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• Despite losing a close one, Breece Hall continues to look like the best third-round fantasy pick on the board.
• Packers find their groove on offense against a Jets team over its skis on defense. Gang Green’s a fantasy target going forward.
• Christian Watson ... WR1