NFL OTA Risers For Fantasy Football: Luther Burden's Stock Keeps Climbing
Fantasy

NFL OTA Risers For Fantasy Football: Luther Burden's Stock Keeps Climbing

Justin Carlucci highlights two young wide receivers who have had some post-OTA buzz trickling in and how to approach them in fantasy drafts.

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The NFL’s OTA and minicamp circuits are in the rearview now, but a couple of receivers earned the kind of praise that’s sticking with me. Let’s dig into one rookie generating real late-round buzz and one polarizing second-year breakout candidate whose price has me torn.

ATL_falcons-logo.svgZachariah Branch | WR | ATL

Branch was a headliner of Atlanta’s offseason programs. The rookie out of Georgia has the kind of electric speed and playmaking that, as Falcons On SI’s Garrett Chapman wrote earlier this month, “Kevin Stefanski and his offensive staff will find a role for, whether that is with designed plays on offense or as the primary returner.”

Falcons senior reporter Will McFadden added fuel to the fire on the last day of minicamp. He wrote that the biggest play of the day “was a quick screen pass to Zachariah Branch on the left side. Branch caught the ball and showed why the Falcons were so excited to draft him in the third round; he nimbly maneuvered through traffic and hit a full sprint to run about 55 yards to the end zone.”

Branch is an intriguing fit in Atlanta. The Falcons have an entirely new coaching staff and also lost Darnell Mooney to free agency. Drake London is locked in as a solidified WR1, but after that? Who knows. 

Jahan Dotson will be on his third team in five years after stints with the Commanders and Eagles, and longtime veteran Olamide Zaccheaus rounds out the top of the depth chart—a reliable, high-floor, low-ceiling presence, but nothing to get excited about. Kyle Pitts finally enjoyed a really nice year at tight end, but there’s clearly room for another playmaker in this offense.

Branch is a shifty after-the-catch guy, and the quarterback situation actually plays into his hands. Whether it’s Tua Tagovailoa or a recovering Michael Penix, Tua in particular has historically been most effective distributing the ball around the line of scrimmage and letting his weapons do the work. 

It’s worth noting again that Branch was arrested in April, but Georgia prosecutors dropped the misdemeanor charges against him in early June, so it’s wheels up from here. There are paths for him to be a boom-or-bust second-half contributor if he picks up the offense and is effective early.

Branch checks in around 5-foot-9 and 177 pounds, and he ran a blazing 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine, so the speed is very real. Our guy Dwain McFarland noted in his Rookie Super Model profile that Branch carried just an 18% career target share but was “highly utilized” when on the field. The model also views him as a third-round value, with close comps of Parris Campbell, Malachi Corley, and Amari Rodgers—not exactly the company you want to be in. Still, there’s a path to a couple of boom weeks on broken plays or pure speed, which plays well in best ball.

Branch has a consensus fantasy football ADP of 205.4 and is going at 177.9 on Underdog, so there’s really no risk in taking a shot right now. 

CHI_bears-logo.svgLuther Burden | WR | CHI

Now to a polarizing fantasy commodity: Luther Burden. There’s so much hype around this guy, and maybe there’s some recency bias at play, but his ADP differential from one year to the next is pretty wild, especially considering he posted just 652 receiving yards as a rookie.

I get that the situation is much different now with DJ Moore out of the picture and another season under Ben Johnson in a high-profile offense. And I love Burden as a player—there’s a real chance he lives up to his current ADP.

But the price is steep. He has a consensus ADP of 51.5 and is going at 42.3 on Underdog. That’s hefty, and Fantasy Life’s projections don’t even have him cracking 1,000 yards or 80 catches. I’m getting some Jags’ Calvin Ridley vibes from a couple of years ago, when he was steamed up to the Round 2-3 turn by August and ultimately flopped relative to cost.

There’s always a couple of receivers who get hyped up on the draft board, though Burden’s case is a little different from the Ridley phenomenon, because that happened over the course of the summer. Burden’s price has been high since Moore was traded to Buffalo. There’s a chance that if he starts going nuclear in July, the cost climbs even higher.

Regardless of where I land on Burden, the buzz has been loud and positive, and the long-term upside is through the roof. 

Gabby Hajduk of ChicagoBears.com quoted Ben Johnson on Burden’s offseason: “Just how he’s approached his offseason, it’s been electric and that showed up yesterday. He had numerous explosive plays. I loved how in Phase 2, he was finishing every single rep that he took … He’s in a really good spot,” Johnson added that Burden is “still developing and growing his route tree,” crediting position coach Antwaan Randle El and Isaiah Ford for the work on “speed cuts to sharp breaks, releases, things of that nature,” and calling Burden “extremely coachable.”

Johnson himself said he’s buying Burden’s stock, which got plastered all over the internet last month. My take: I like Burden more for best ball. I think he’ll have a few crazy spike weeks purely on talent, but I’d pump the brakes a bit in season-long formats, where I want more of a floor-ceiling combo week to week, with the emphasis on the floor. 

I love the player, and he could absolutely be a best ball league-winner depending on the format and when those spike weeks land. Either way, Burden has been the talk of the Bears, and he’ll have every opportunity to earn every target this season.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. ZachariahBranch
    WRATLATL
    Proj
    81.2
  2. Luther Burden
    LutherBurden
    WRCHICHI
    PPG
    6.7
    Proj
    180.2

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