Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 3

• Spread: Bengals -2.5
• O/U: 45.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  CIN 22, PIT 20

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Preview

Oh baby, the Bengals playing ferocious defense feels like Happy Gilmore learning to putt. As an avid ball-knower, it should only be a matter of time before the rest of the civilized world follows suit, admiring Cincinnati’s newest evolution. The Striped Cats spent the offseason bolstering the front seven by extending Dexter Lawrence, plus signing Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe to cause constant disruption in front of shutdown CB DJ Turner. 

The results? C’est magnifique! Cincy’s #1 in both sacks and pressures.

With some well-deserved defensive admiration off my chest, it’s on to what you all came for... offense! Sorry to say, however deflating, that CIN’s newfound success defensively can’t help but hurt the other side of the ball. We’ve grown so accustomed to Cincy being completely unable to stop the opposition that Joe Burrow's foot winds up smashed nonstop against the gas pedal. Now that the D can win at all three levels, it’s going to negatively affect their fantasy trajectory. Don’t shoot the messenger.

All else equal, it’s the same Cincinnati offense we know and love, gaining over 5.1 yards/play even when struggling … plus that’s against the Bucs and Texans. Granted, Pittsburgh fits in that same stingy bin, but we’re basically wed to our Bengals for better or worse. 

Again, competition’s been tough, but I’m sure even the Bengals themselves would admit to not firing on all cylinders … yet. The run game/scheme’s underperformed, but the same volume that launched Chase Brown into the second-round conversation keeps him cemented in fantasy lineups. 

Already at an elite 86 UR, Brown’s secured an insane 80% of backfield opportunities, including 5.5 targets/game to go with 100% of goal-to-goal snaps. Slower offense or not, there’s some big-time RB1 weeks on the horizon.

Last note on the backfield: I’m advising a handcuff zig rather than the consensus zag. Not to put any more injury negativity into the universe, but I think it would be Tahj Brooks and not Samaje Perine to get the base-down work if something happened to Brown (ducks). Granted, Brooks hasn’t touched the ball in limited snaps, but the Perine rush stats are gag-inducing: 3.7 yards/attempt, -0.22 EPA/rush, 29% success, 0.0% explosive rush rate. As my southern buddies say, that dog don’t hunt.

Warned you to stay away from Mike Gesicki, who dropped a fat goose egg after a big-time breakout performance. Those targets instead went to Erick All, though he remains unrosterable so long as he’s only running five routes a game. The other pass catchers couldn’t be easier to assess; it’s the fantasy gamer’s dream. Alpha WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for over 44% of all Joe Burrow targets, 52% of the passing yards, and half the touchdowns. Just wait until the soft matchups come ... the fireworks you signed up for are on the way.

• Start: Joe Burrow (QB9), Chase Brown (RB9), Ja’Marr Chase (WR3), Tee Higgins (WR18)
• Sit: Mike Gesicki (TE31), Andrei Iosivas (WR97)

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview

How can it be the middle of November and already I can’t stomach watching any more of this Steeler team on film? My drum’s worn out from all the beatings it took warning everyone to stay away from any pass catchers in black and yellow this summer. I could smell the awful combination of defense meeting a molasses-paced offense.

Even with a spike in pass rate up near the top of the leaderboard, the Steelers still rank dead last in yards/play (3.8), average drive distance (19.6), points/drive (0.6), yards/pass attempt (5.0), passing TD (1), and sacks allowed (7). Hard to draw it up much worse.  

Maybe forty-something-year-old quarterbacks with bottom-3 scores in EPA/dropback (-0.46) and off-target rate (16.5%) shouldn’t be talking smack about the coaching staff when asked to point the finger of blame at their failures. I’m sorry, but if you can only muster 5.5 YPA while going 0-for-6 on deep shots versus the Falcons, maybe it’s a “you” problem.

Even with all the target consolidation, plus an injury to Michael Pittman, the Steelers still haven't had a single WR post a top-40 finish. Awful stuff. DK Metcalf’s still a must-start for leading all non-Saints in total routes run (88), even if he’s technically still a fantasy WR5. 

Let’s play a game. Of the 14 WR/TE with +17 targets earned, only four are still scoreless, and just one hasn’t eclipsed 10 catches. Can you guess who? Yes, it’s DK. Fine, this degree of volume could and should eventually lead to production — I'm just not going to be around to find out.

Overt bitterness aside, rookie Germie Bernard’s role increase in Week 2 (85% route participation, 20.5% target/route) should raise eyebrows as a worthwhile contingency stash. However, Michael Pittman’s expected to return to practice as well as suit up this weekend. Adding another mouth to feed in an already floundering offense just hurts everyone involved.

Free agent RB Rico Dowdle was doing just enough to frustrate Jaylen Warren managers, but a balky toe removed him from action in the second half Sunday. Dowdle, whose status remains uncertain, missed practice and was even spotted wearing a boot. Travis Homer did see a few snaps to give the new Steeler workhorse a breather — Warren played 95% of snaps after the injury to Dowdle.

• Start: Jaylen Warren (RB23), DK Metcalf (WR27), Pat Freiermuth (TE20)
• Sit: Michael Pittman (WR55), Aaron Rodgers (QB29)
• Sleeper: Roman Wilson (WR75)

Next Week’s Bold Headline, Today

• Look out, world, here come the Bengals’… Defense? Suddenly one of the most well-balanced teams in the league, Cincy looks like a true force to be reckoned with after destroying the Steelers in their own building.