The Three Most Important Things We'll Learn About Fantasy Football In Week 1

Green Bay Packers RB Split

The Green Bay Packers running back room has gotten a complete shake-up over the past week. Josh Jacobs has officially been placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List, with no timetable for a return. He could be back before Week 1 without any punishment; he could miss six weeks and come back mid-season; he could also be released by GB and never play another NFL snap! We truly have no clue what’s going to happen here, but for the sake of this article, I’m going to assume Jacobs will not play this season.

That said, the Green Bay backfield becomes very interesting. MarShawn Lloyd—the 2024 third-round pick with essentially zero NFL experience due to injuries over his first two seasons—jumps into the RB1 slot. The Packers also elected to trade for Kaleb Johnson—Pittsburgh’s third-round selection from the 2025 draft. Chris Brooks is also in the mix, but I don’t anticipate him competing for valuable touches here.

In Week 1, I expect to see Lloyd play the 1A role in the backfield. What I am most interested to see is how Green Bay divvies up the touches behind him. Does Johnson slot into a clean RB2 role? If so, how does he look? I believe we’ll learn a ton here, especially considering we’ve seen essentially zero opportunities from Lloyd OR Johnson at the NFL level up to this point.

Johnson is a priority target for me right now in the final rounds of drafts. If you’ve already drafted, I’d absolutely look to stash him on your bench. He strikes me as one of the few widely available RBs that has a legit chance to take over a backfield without an injury (or Jacobs returning).

Considering the fact that both Lloyd and Johnson have an NFL sample size of roughly zero in their combined careers, I am treating them both like rookies this season. Lloyd obviously has the upper hand since he’s the incumbent in GB, but I don’t think we should write off the fact that Johnson might just straight up be a better running back.

Los Angeles Chargers RB Split

Week 1 is going to tell us a ton about the running back pecking orders on a lot of teams, but arguably none more than the Los Angeles Chargers. I am going to very quickly find out if I have way too much Omarion Hampton in the second round of drafts, or if I have nowhere near enough. 

I love Omarion Hampton as a talent. He was a 95th-percentile RB prospect in my model with a great blend of collegiate production, athleticism and first-round draft capital:

It’s pretty straightforward to imagine a world where Hampton is a guy you simply had to have to win your leagues in 2026—awesome profile going into Year 2, new creative play caller, high-octane offense, the list goes on.

The one thing giving me pause is how much we’ve heard that McDaniel LOVES all three of these backs—along with Hampton, they have Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal. 

I’m not super worried about Vidal limiting Hampton’s upside—he feels more like a true handcuff to Hampton—but I can’t say the same for Mitchell.

Mitchell is the guy that scares me when it comes to Hampton hitting his ceiling. I can just see Mike McDaniel looking at Mitchell—one of the most explosive, home-run-hitting, blazing-fast RBs in the league—and getting butterflies in his stomach. I would never call Keaton Mitchell the new De’Von Achane (that would just be preposterous), but I could absolutely see him getting schemed up creative touches in the same way.

As long as Mitchell is healthy for Week 1, I think we will learn a ton about how McDaniel and co. truly envisions this RB group. Is it going to be bellcow Hampton season? Or will ‘The Missile’ find his way into high-value touch situations? I can’t wait to find out!

The “Tweener” Tight Ends - Are They Legit?

When I say “tweener” tight ends, I am referring to the guys who are essentially only tight ends by position designation. The guys who aren’t out there with their hand in the dirt run blocking; instead, they’re viewed as primarily pass-catching weapons. Think Dalton Kincaid, Isaiah Likely and Oronde Gadsden.

These guys are especially interesting to me because the ceilings are through the roof. Looking at the numbers, these three guys are legitimately awesome pass catchers.

• Dalton Kincaid:
  • 0.24 TPRR (1st among 74 qualified TEs in 2025)
  • 2.8 YPRR (1st)
• Isaiah Likely (2024 season w/ healthy Lamar):
  • 1.7 YPRR (7th)
  • 0.09 FDPRR (11th)
• Oronde Gadsden (as a rookie):
  • 1.66 YPRR (17th)
  • 13.6 yards/rec (6th)

The issue here is route participation. Are these guys even running enough routes to become fantasy-relevant on a weekly basis? Last season:

• Kincaid: 17.1 routes/game (38th)
• Likely: 17.0 routes/game (40th)
• Gadsden: 26.6 routes/game (18th)

Of these three guys, the one I’m most excited to see in action in Week 1 is probably the one most people would put last … it’s Oronde Gadsden.

I’ve been on record this offseason talking about how the Gadsden bearishness has been completely overblown. He had one of the most impressive rookie seasons we’ve seen from a tight end in recent memory—after being drafted 165th overall! 

Will Charlie Kolar and David Njoku play a role in 2026? I’m sure they will. But I’m not convinced it will come at a major detriment to Gadsden. That being said … we will find out for sure in Week 1, which is why this is one of the biggest things I wanted to highlight.

After Gadsden, I’m extremely interested to see if there are any big changes in how Kincaid is utilized. He’s pretty clearly the most efficient pass catcher of the three, but has never been asked to play a full-time role (and it doesn’t help that he’s constantly battled injuries). In a fresh season, do the Bills ask for more from their young former first-round TE? If so, I believe he could be in for a massive season.