Week 7 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions: Rodgers, Rashee Go Nuclear

Week 7 is here, and that means many unexpected scenarios are set to unfold in the NFL. Well-planned wagers and fantasy matchups alike will hang in the balance as true outliers transpire in front of (mostly) commercial-free audiences. 

Last week, I predicted that the New York Jets would let 20+ seconds run off the clock before solemnly leaving the field for halftime instead of attempting a field goal or hail mary while trailing 10-6. (Just kidding — this is the first time I've written this article.) 

Let's get to some actual bold predictions for Week 7.

Aaron Rodgers Throws 5 TD Passes Against the Bengals

Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers' sun run is set to continue on Thursday night in Cincinnati, where the visiting team is likely to take a commanding lead in the AFC North after only seven weeks. 

It would be bolder to suggest that the Bengals will actually win this game than to predict 5 TDs by a 41-year-old QB against them. But Rodgers is the kinda guy (you know the type) who will absolutely pad his stats in primetime. 

The Steelers are a decidedly mediocre offense, ranking in the bottom third in both rushing and receiving volume. They actually rank fourth-worst in rushing yards per game and have grinded out only 3.4 yards per carry (third-worst). But both of their main backs are capable pass-catchers, as are their two (mediocre) tight ends. This is the recipe for sneaky TD totals for a QB whose 5.6 aDOT ranks 39th in a league that only has 32 teams in it (min. 50 plays at QB). 

The Bengals look destined for a top-five pick after entering the year with the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl. NFL analysts across the land are being forced to adjust the settings on their EPA charts to keep the Who Deys on the page. They are the fourth-worst defense in EPA/play — bad against both the run and pass — and the offense is averaging 57 rushing yards per game, 25 fewer than the next-worst team (Tennessee). Joe Flacco has only been their QB for a week, and their linebackers (rookies drafted in the second and fourth rounds) can't tackle. 

Maybe Arthur Smith ruins all of our alt-line parlays by dialing up a Jonnu Smith rushing TD. There are many ways for the Steelers to spread the wealth against the Bengals, but the easiest way to score will be Rodgers targeting whichever random skill player is open five yards down the field and letting him traverse the open space behind him. 

If the Steelers' defense creates turnovers and short fields (they're third in Ian Hartitz's "Havoc" rate), Rodgers dropping a 40-burger in fantasy is very much on the table. 

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Dillon Gabriel & Harold Fannin Post Top-6 Fantasy Finishes

Cleveland Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel had a long day last Sunday, taking six sacks while throwing 52 passes en route to 9 total points. In his defense, 29 of those throws were caught by his teammates, and it would have been 30 if wide receiver Isaiah Bond were actually looking when a short pass hit him square in the helmet on a potential touchdown. 

Bond's inefficiency aside (four catches on 12 targets over the last two weeks), Gabriel & Co. should have more success when the Miami Dolphins come to town in Week 7. The Dolphins are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, having been lit up for the following fantasy finishes through six weeks: QB2 (Daniel Jones), QB3 (Drake Maye), QB5 (Josh Allen), QB4 (Justin Fields), QB24 (Bryce Young), QB14 (Justin Herbert). 

Gabriel is not pushing the ball downfield, with a Rodgers-esque 6.2 aDOT through two starts. But it's not like he's passing on throwing bombs to the world's best downfield threats — Jerry Jeudy is underperforming his expected fantasy points at the highest figure in the league (-7.6), and Cedric Tillman has been out since Week 5. With a 53% pass block win rate that ranks 27th in the league, Gabriel can't spend much time looking for deep shots anyway. 

Which brings us to the Browns' stable of talented tight ends and running backs. Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. caught seven passes last week on 10 targets, and Gabriel looked David Njoku's way on six more. Another nine targets went to RBs Jerome Ford (6), Dylan Sampson (2), and Quinshon Judkins (1). Njoku is trending toward missing Week 7, leaving the 6-foot-4, 241-pound Fannin as the top option for underneath routes, check-downs, and potentially red zone work. 

Fannin is a monster after the catch who has been schemed looks from the jump — the Browns unleashed the third-rounder in his NFL debut with nine targets and a carry. He has earned at least four targets in every game since, coming in at seventh at the position in expected fantasy points. Fannin was trending toward taking over the TE1 role either way, but Njoku's absence is opening the door for it to happen this week. 

It goes without saying that Miami's defense will be more friendly than Pittsburgh's in Week 6. If the Dolphins show some fight on offense, there's a clear path to Gabriel and Fannin working in tandem to produce their best fantasy finishes thus far. 

Rashee Rice Goes Nuclear in Return, Reaffirms Top-12 Dynasty WR Status

Rashee Rice's return from a six-game suspension couldn't come at a better time for the young receiver or the Chiefs. Having climbed out of a 0-2 hole, Kansas City currently sits in second place in the AFC West behind the banged-up and struggling Los Angeles Chargers. 

The turnaround has come largely via the passing game. The Chiefs are by far the most pass-heavy offense in the league, with a 10.8% pass rate over expected (PROE) that tops the next-highest team by over 3 percentage points. They actually increased their PROE from Weeks 3-6 after the two opening losses. 

There is little run game to lean on here. The team averages a respectable 4.6 yards per carry, but Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Brashard Smith have combined for only nine carries of 10+ yards. Patrick Mahomes has scored four of the team's seven rushing TDs himself. Mahomes has thrown 11 touchdown passes against just two interceptions and is now the overall QB1 on the season after his four-TD effort on Sunday night. 

Which brings us back to the opportunity at hand for the team's budding star receiver. Last season, Rice exploded onto the scene in his second year, posting a WR2 figure over three games before his season-ending injury. The 2023 second-rounder was averaging 21.6 PPR points when he went down, trailing only Malik Nabers. This was after finishing his rookie season as WR8 over his final six games.  

With 36-year-old Travis Kelce's production considerably down from his peak and Hollywood Brown leading the team with a 21% target share, expect Rice to immediately step back into the lucrative WR1 role he was forced to vacate just over a year ago. Remember that Rice is coming back from suspension, not an injury — he should be fit and ready for a full workload.

The Las Vegas Raiders are coming to Arrowhead allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers on the season. This is a prime opportunity for Mahomes and Andy Reid to remind the NFL that their early-season two-game losing streak was but a mirage for anyone thinking the Chiefs are no longer contenders.  

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