Quarterback Downgrades for Guillotine Leagues 2025: Pump the Brakes on Kyler Murray
Guillotine

Quarterback Downgrades for Guillotine Leagues 2025: Pump the Brakes on Kyler Murray

Paul Charchian breaks down five quarterbacks whose value tanks in Guillotine Leagues compared to standard redraft leagues based on the format of the game.

Particularly in Guillotine Leageus™, it's incredibly important not to screw up the quarterback position. In our scoring system, quarterbacks are the highest-scoring position. While that sounds great on paper, the downside is that when your quarterback tanks, he might be the only quarterback tanking that week.

Here are a handful or QBs to be wary on in Guillotine Leagues™, as their prospects aren't as rosy as they are in standard formats.

QB Downgrades for Guillotine Leagues in 2025

QB9: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

- 15 spots below standard league consensus

With the return of Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and another (final) season for Travis Kelce, this might be Patrick Mahomes' deepest set of receiving targets. So, I'm optimistic that he'll be a lot better this season.

That said, I fear people are mistaking Mahomes for a consistent high-end fantasy producer, at least among non-rushing quarterbacks. But last year, that wasn't the case. He finished as QB7 or better just four times. He finished as QB13-QB20 11 times. In fairness, he almost never bottomed out, which is great in guillotine, but you can find quarterbacks ranked 13+ far later in your draft.

QB11: Kyler Murray, Cardinals

- 16 spots below standard league consensus

We think of Kyler Murray as a dynamic runner with plenty of combo upside. But the reality is that his rushing is limited because he's not a goal-line threat, and his passing is meh. Murray has scored rushing touchdowns in only 4 of his last 22 games. Yuck. Over the past two years, spanning 25 games, Murray's topped 285 passing yards just two times. Since then, his average passing game is a totally forgettable 226 yards and 1.2 touchdowns. Yawn.

Sadly, the Arizona offense didn't get any better in the offseason, with zero key additions at any offensive starter position. Hopefully, presumably, Marvin Harrison gets better in year two.

The best thing I can say about Murray's guillotine prospects is that he generally doesn't hurt you. Last year, he finished worse than QB20 five times, which isn't horrible.

QB15: Caleb Williams, Bears

- 13 spots below standard league consensus

Everyone's optimistic about Williams' prospects of a second-year evolution with Ben Johnson. Me too. But, remember, in a guillotine league, you're mostly concerned with staying alive for the month of September. Sure, Williams might become a reliable fantasy quarterback immediately under Johnson. But the greater likelihood is that Williams will be inconsistent while he learns his new offense.

Last year, Williams was a guillotine disaster, finishing as QB20 or worse ten different times. Those bottom-third finishes are how you get chopped in a guillotine league.

QB19: Justin Fields, Jets

- 28 spots below standard league consensus

Dual-threat quarterbacks can be great for guillotine, because they can avoid dud games two ways.  But Fields' passing is so scattershot, he's a threat for a dud game anytime he doesn't rush for a touchdown.

Check out these crazy stats: In his 19 starts over the past two years, he's scored rushing touchdowns seven times, averaging 24 fantasy points per game—that's QB4! But in the other 12 starts, when he didn't score a rushing touchdown, he averages just 175 passing yards and 1.2 passing touchdowns, which plunges him 13 fantasy points per game—QB32!

QB23: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

– 18 spots below standard league concensus

You can't wake up every Sunday hoping your guillotine quarterback doesn't suffer his fifth concussion. That's no way to live. Sure, you can roll the dice for a few weeks, but you're going to get real antsy waiting and hoping he stays upright. That means you'll be spending early-season FAAB on a more reliable quarterback, putting you at an early disadvantage. Plus, the Dolphins' offensive line was bad last year (PFF's 25th pass block; 27th in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate), and their best lineman, Terron Armstead, retired.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Kyler Murray
    KylerMurrayIR
    QBARIARI
    PPG
    16.16
  2. Patrick Mahomes
    PatrickMahomes
    QBKCKC
    PPG
    23.50
  3. Tua Tagovailoa
    TuaTagovailoa
    QBMIAMIA
    PPG
    13.69
    Proj
    13.85
  4. Caleb Williams
    CalebWilliams
    QBCHICHI
    PPG
    20.58
    Proj
    18.07