You get a QB, and you get a QB, and you get a QB … no Carolina, put your hand down, you had your chance.
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter:
NFL Draft: Where will the top signal callers land?
NBA Playoffs: No reason to doubt the Nuggets.
Draft Best Bets: Value on a first-round QB fade.
It’s 4/25. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich …
When talking about QBs getting drafted in the first round, no one said it better than Dexter Morgan: “Tonight’s the night, and it’s going to happen again, and again … it has to happen.”
As of writing (mid-morning on the West Coast), a trifecta of 1. Caleb Williams; 2. Jayden Daniels; 3. Drake Maye was -250 at DraftKings.
The second shortest odds? A trifecta of 1. Caleb Williams; 2. Jayden Daniels; 3. J.J. McCarthy (+190 on DraftKings). It’s even plausible the top four choices are all QBs as a quadfecta of 1. Williams; 2. Daniels; 3. Maye; 4. McCarthy is sitting at +300 on DraftKings.
Matthew Freedman has some bets for us to tail (including a positional total on a top QB), but for now, let’s break down the main players in this QB free-for-all and where each QB-needy team stands going into the night.
🐻 Chicago Bears
Current QB Room: Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien
The Bears are taking Caleb Williams, end of story. Williams' odds to go first overall are now at -20000 on DraftKings and there has never been a hint they were taking anyone else. He’s their new QB1.
🪖 Washington Commanders
Current QB Room: Marcus Mariota, Jeff Driskel, Jake Fromm
Jayden Daniels, who once had bigger odds than Drake Maye to be selected second overall, has been steamed down over the past 24 hours and is now -1000 on DraftKings to go No. 2. We can’t call Daniels to the Commanders a lock, and who knows what last-minute offers will come across their desk, but all indications are that he will be Washington’s QB of the future.
🍀 New England Patriots
Current QB Room: Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe, Nathan Rourke
A week ago, the Patriots proclaimed they were open for business and willing to trade down. The latest rumors have them set on Drake Maye, although it should be noted that J.J. McCarthy is down to +180 on DraftKings to go third overall.
The Patriots theoretically have three options. I’ve ordered them by the likelihood of them happening: take Maye or McCarthy, trade the pick, or take who they think is the best player available (likely Marvin Harrison Jr.).
New England almost assuredly leaves this draft with a QB. However, they are far less of a lock to stay and take a QB at their current position than the first two teams.
🟣 Minnesota Vikings
Current QB Room: Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
The Vikings signed Darnold but have made no secret of their desire to select a QB. They’ve been hotly linked in trade rumors with the Patriots and hosted private workouts for all the top names.
If a trade goes down, the Vikings would be the favorite to be the team making the move up into the top four picks. However, even if they stay at 11, expect them to target a signal caller.
🏴☠️ Las Vegas Raiders
Current QB Room: Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew, Anthony Brown Jr.
The Raiders are in a tough spot. They need a QB but are stuck with the worst draft position of the “needy teams” at 13. There has been talk that they covet Jayden Daniels (and the feeling may be mutual), but short of a vast overpayment, that’s a trade unlikely to transpire.
Vegas will likely either settle for the talented but risky Michael Penix Jr. (currently +100 on DraftKings to be drafted by the Raiders) or cut their losses and roll with O’Connell/Minshew to start the season.
🐎 Denver Broncos
Current QB Room: Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson, Ben DiNucci
Denver has been linked to Bo Nix throughout the draft process and, as of writing, sits with the shortest odds (+125 on DraftKings) to take the former Oregon signal caller. Denver also made the bold (albeit low-risk) move of trading for Zach Wilson a couple of days ago and has one of the weakest rosters in the league. It wouldn't be overly shocking to see them trade back for more draft capital or even bypass a QB in Round 1.
🗽 New York Giants
Current QB Room: Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito
The Giants have the strongest QB room of this group but are still looking to upgrade. The latest rumors have them linked to Penix as a surprise pick at Number 6 overall.
I’d be a little shocked if the Giants took a QB that early (or traded up), but they are shaping up as the wildcard team in this QB lotto. If the top four QBs are off the board when it comes around to them, New York could surprise everyone and keep the run going.
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🏀 Game 3 between the Lakers and Nuggets goes off tonight. Don’t stop betting on the defending champs.
🔥 Shaquille O’Neal, the Oracle? The big man deserves props for calling the Heat’s Game 2 upset.
📈 One simply does not fade playoff Caleb Martin. His over hit before your kids finished their dinner.
🐺 Naz Reid won sixth-man of the year. At least one bettor who took his 80-1 preseason odds went home happy today.
🌠 Down 2-0, the Dallas Stars may be in too deep. Teams who lose the first two games at home rarely recover.
👎 The Oilers may have a goalie problem (again). Stuart Skinner’s playoff numbers are #notgood.
🌀 The Carolina Hurricanes are in the catbird seat. And one of their stars has some juicy-looking props tonight.
⛰️ The Padres visit the thin air of Colorado today. This early inning line has an edge worth exploiting.
The NFL draft is finally here, and Matthew Freedman breaks down one of his favorite prop bets. For all of his draft bets, check out the Free Picks Channel of the Fantasy Life Discord and our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Many reporters, analysts, and mock drafters expect five QBs to go in Round 1. Some even project six.
Not me.
And that leads me to this bet.
⬆️ Michael Penix Over 32.5
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +280
Projection: +160
QBs are regularly overmocked, and Penix looks like the type of QB who gets Round 1 hype but goes in Round 2.
He will turn 24 years old shortly after being drafted. He played six years in college, four of which ended prematurely because of injuries (two ACL tears, two shoulder dislocations).
That’s unprecedented stuff for a Round 1 QB.
Sure, Brandon Weeden — 12 years ago, in the analytical dark ages — was drafted in Round 1 and played as a 29-year-old rookie. But he’s the outlier. He didn’t have Penix’s injury history, and he was a bust, which hurts Penix because GMs can look at Weeden and say, “Yeah, maybe let’s not draft the guy in Round 1 who is old enough to have a 401K … and also has a novel-length medical chart.”
This is not a knock on Penix as a prospect. I can imagine him having a perfectly fine career à la Andy Dalton and Derek Carr (both Round 2 QBs). His college production speaks for itself.
But I’m acknowledging how things work in the NFL: Almost every year, QBs get overhyped in the pre-draft process relative to where they go off the board, and Penix does not at all fit the profile of a Round 1 QB (much less a successful Round 1 QB).
This line might continue to get longer as the hype for Penix builds, so use your discretion in terms of bet timing, but I do think this prop offers value right now.
Check out the rest of Freedman’s favorite draft bets!
