🩸 Week 3: The Survivor Pool Bloodbath

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Week 3 was supposed to be an easy one for Survivor Pools.

The only real decision was which big favorite to choose from. The 49ers were double-digit favorites on Thursday Night Football, and the Chiefs, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Ravens were all favored by at least a touchdown on Sunday.

While the 49ers were able to get things done, their Sunday counterparts weren’t nearly as successful. The Chiefs managed to steamroll the Bears, but the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Ravens all lost outright.

Overall, it wouldn’t be a shock if roughly 50% of your remaining pool was eliminated:

An absolute bloodbath in the @FirstUp1050 Survivor Pool. Dallas, Baltimore and Jacksonville lose. Just over 1100 remain of the 3600 entries.

— Aaron Korolnek (@Aaron_Korolnek)
Sep 24, 2023

The Cowboys were the biggest disappointment. They opened the week as nearly two-touchdown favorites against the Cardinals, and they eventually closed at around 11.

However, those who took the Cowboys broke one of the biggest cardinal rules of Survivor pools: Don’t take road teams.

There are obviously exceptions to every rule, and taking the Cowboys sure felt pretty safe. They looked like an absolute juggernaut through the first two weeks, outscoring the Giants and Jets by a score of 70-10.

However, there were some concerns for those who were paying attention.

For starters, the Cardinals have been better than expected. They covered in each of their first two games, and while they didn’t win either contest, they didn’t seem like the trainwreck they were expected to be.

Additionally, the Cowboys lost starting CB Trevon Diggs (ACL) during the week and were without two starters on their offensive line — Zack Martin and Tyler Baidasz. T Tyron Smith suited up but didn’t play.

So, what can we learn from this? If you did manage to survive, how can you avoid falling into future potential pitfalls?

🏡 Don’t Pick Road Teams (Unless You Have To)

Seriously, just don’t do it.

Wonky stuff happens when teams are away from home. Homefield advantage might not be worth nearly as much as it has been in the past, but it’s still a real thing.

In a week where there were plenty of choices, there was no real need to flirt with a road team. That might not be the case if you’re lucky enough to last into the later weeks, but you have to get there first.

🚫 Don’t Save Teams

Too many people are too focused on who to pick should they get to Week 14. Unless you’re in a huge pool with thousands of entries — in which case, the rules are completely different — you simply need to outlast your opponents.

There are no bonus points for winning in Week 14. Just get to the next week and worry about the rest when you need to.

The idea of “saving” a team like the Chiefs for later weeks might be appealing, but there’s no guarantee you get there. There are no guarantees in football, period. Something could happen to Patrick Mahomes at any point, in which case you’ll be kicking yourself for not using the Chiefs earlier.

😜 Don’t Be Afraid to Get Weird

You may not remember how you get eliminated every year, but I promise you, what happened with the Cowboys wasn’t some weird outlier. Every year, big favorites go down, and they take a huge portion of Survivor Pools with them.

There’s nothing wrong with taking good teams. I just advocated for it. That said, you don’t necessarily need to take good teams at the same time as everyone else.

These pools typically end with a couple of popular teams going down early in the year. After that, it’s left to a handful of people to select between the remaining teams in the later weeks. Don’t be afraid to pivot off of the chalk if there’s another team that you’re comfortable with.

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It’s never too early to start thinking about Week 4. Matt LaMarca breaks down a couple of lines to consider pouncing on early in the week.

It was a brutal day for the public on Sunday. The Cowboys, Jaguars, and Ravens all lost outright as favorites of at least a touchdown, which is never a good thing for the average bettor. They tend to love the big favorites, so when they go down, the public typically goes down.

It’s just more proof that anything can happen on a week-to-week basis in the NFL. Well, anything except the Bears beating the Chiefs.

This early in the season – when the information is the most limited – is the time when casual bettors tend to become too overconfident based on what we’ve seen over a small sample size.

We still have two contests on Monday night, but let’s turn the page to Week 4. These are five spots that jumped out to me that can provide some early-week value.

The goal is to earn as much CLV (closing line value) as possible before the sharps have a chance to gobble up all the current lines.

Let’s dive in.

⚜️ Embrace the Uncertainty With the Saints

The Saints blew a 17-point fourth-quarter victory on Sunday, with the Packers rallying for 18 unanswered points. It was a win for analytics, while the Saints suffered their first defeat of the season.

Unfortunately, the blown lead was far from the biggest story in New Orleans.

Quarterback Derek Carr suffered an injury in the third quarter, which caused him to be removed from the game. It appears as though he’s avoided disaster, with NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reporting that Carr suffered an AC joint sprain:

More: Derek Carr is believed to have suffered an AC sprain, source said. After a multitude of tests, there was no additional damage. When he plays will be determined by the swelling and how he gains mobility.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Sep 24, 2023

That means that Carr’s season isn’t over, but it puts his status for Week 4 in serious jeopardy.

A quarterback injury always puts the sportsbooks in a tough spot. They’re basically forced to predict what they think is going to happen a week in advance.

As bettors, that means we have the opportunity to take advantage.

The Saints are currently listed as three-point home favorites for their Week 3 matchup vs. the Buccaneers. I think grabbing the three points with the Bucs is clearly the right decision at this point in the week.

If Carr is eventually ruled out, this number will likely decrease a bit further. In that instance, we would have a bit of CLV with our bet, including the most important key number in all of football.

If Carr is ruled in, we can always pivot later in the week. We could look to target the Saints at that point, even if the line moves back in their favor slightly.

In other words, the potential reward vastly outweighs the risk. We’re seeing that play out in Week 3, with those who were wise enough to grab the Rams +6.5 against the Bengals sitting on a prime ticket. If Burrow plays, they can always hedge out of their bet, but they’re currently drowning in Sklansky bucks.

There’s no guarantee that happens again with the Saints, but I want to be in that position if it does.

🍕 What’s the difference between a large pizza and getting good closing line value? A pizza can feed a family of four… 

🚨Do you smell that? What’s that smell? … Opportunity.  An argument for attacking niche markets and preseason betting lines.

🎢 When you have so many bets going and you forget who, or what, you’re cheering for. A roller coaster ride to a 100-1 first TD prop.

💃🏼 When in doubt, do what the kids are doing. A new betting system emerges. All hail the Swiftie model!

📉 Let’s check in on how the Bears ended their week and … Oh My Lord! A beat down of epic proportions.

🤖 The Chargers finally get something right! (note: it still nearly ended in disaster). A sharp fourth-down decision that ended poorly. 

🎶Don’t you… forget about me🎶 A QB who may have reinserted himself back into the MVP discussion. He was feeling it in Week 3. 

☠️“I trust my defense!” He said as the security guards cleared out his desk. A late-game decision to settle for a FG raises some eyebrows.

🦅Double your pleasure, double your fun. Two big games to end Week 3. Get your MNF research in with the Game Hub. 

What’s better than one Monday Night Football game? Two Monday Night Football games! Tonight’s doubleheader features the Eagles at the Buccaneers and the Rams at the Bengals. Geoff Ulrich is here to break down the Monday night slate from a betting perspective.

For more info, check out our Week 3 Game Hub.

The week ends with another Monday Night doubleheader.

First, we go to Tampa Bay, where the 2-0 Eagles will take on another undefeated team in the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has covered in two straight games to start the year, but it is worth noting that they also sit atop the NFL Luck Ratings.

While the first game is relatively straightforward, the second has a lot more variables surrounding it. As of Sunday night, we still don’t know the status of Joe Burrow.

Bengals are listing Joe Burrow as questionable for Monday night’s game versus the Rams due to his calf injury.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Sep 23, 2023

The spread opened at Bengals -6.5 but now sits at just -2.5. Bettors clearly think there is a good chance Burrow misses this week, but if he does get ruled in, you will see the line make a decent move back toward the Bengals.

🏴‍☠️️ Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Eagles-5.0 (-110; BetMGM)

• Total: 45.0

• Moneylines: Eagles -225 / Buccaneers +185

The line on this game opened up at Eagles -7.0 but shot down to -5.0 in the middle of the week as a few bigger bets seemed to come in on Tampa Bay. The initial line might have discounted the Buccaneers, but at 5.0, that discount has evaporated.

From a matchup perspective, much of how this game goes for Tampa Bay will be determined by how they handle the Eagles' pass rush and defensive line. Philadelphia ranks second in pressures on the season and has been nearly impossible to run on, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush.

Baker Mayfield (average 2.4 seconds in the pocket) has been great at getting the ball out quickly and using downfield passes to Mike Evans to counteract pressure. Evans is a hard cover for the Eagles, and it’s worth noting that he crushed them in the playoffs two seasons ago for a 9-117-1 line. The good news for Philadelphia is that it appears they’ll get James Bradberry (concussion) back for this week after he practiced in full on Friday.

On the Eagles side, this is a perfect spot for their passing game to get going. Outside of one broken play to Devonta Smith, the Eagles have yet to do much through the air. Jalen Hurts comes in averaging 6.5 yards per attempt – down from 7.9 last season. The Buccaneers rank 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed and may be without one of their cornerbacks in Carlton Davis.

The injury report this week is key for Tampa Bay. If they don’t have Davis helping against AJ Brown on the backend, the big plays may come fast and furious for the Eagles.

If the number drifts back to 6.0 and Davis is active, I think Tampa Bay is worth taking as an underdog.

The Eagles' offense hasn’t been great out of the gate, and the Buccaneers have the tools to counteract some of the pressure the Eagles will bring. It’s also worth noting that while Jalen Hurts has been great covering as a favorite, he’s only 7-13 ATS on the road for his career.

🐏 Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Bengals -1.5 (-115; BetMGM)

• Total: 43.5

• Moneylines: Bengals -130 / Rams +110

Don't be shocked if you’re reading this on Monday and the line has completely flipped.

Even at less than 100%, Joe Burrow (calf; questionable) being active will likely cause this line to shift dramatically toward the Bengals.

If Burrow does play, this is also an arrow-up game for both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has had a poor start to the season, with zero catches longer than 13.0 yards. That is troublesome, considering he AVERAGED over 18.0 yards in his rookie year.

Some poor weather, Burrow being less than 100%, and the fact Tee Higgins was basically uncoverable last week can somewhat explain Chase’s production to date. However, the Bengals simply need more from their third-year superstar, especially against a weaker secondary like the Rams.

The Rams allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt last week, and while they didn’t allow a passing TD, that’s mainly because Christian McCaffrey was balling out for over 5.0 yards per carry on the ground.

Again, the Burrow factor is enormous, but we don’t want to oversell the Rams. This is still a thinner defense, and if the Bengals O-Line can hold up, a monster Chase game is certainly possible (and much needed here for the Bengals). The Rams D-Line ranks 20th in QB pressures (14) thus far, so if they’re not able to get more pressure on Burrow, it could be a long night for their secondary.