Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 11 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
TNF hit us with a sobering reminder about injuries and how quickly and severely they can impact the league. Of course, losing one player affects just one fantasy roster. And they have to scramble to make up for the deficit.
But sometimes, there’s a cascade effect. Multiple assets from the same team could lose value all in a single moment.
So, we have to adjust. There’ll still be games on Sunday. The three-game Thanksgiving slate is five days away. And the playoffs are right around the corner. We’ve got to make sure our rosters are set now with a short week ahead of us.
To help, as they always do, our rankers got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 11, check out their notes before kickoff.
RB – Tony Pollard (Cowboys) at Panthers
I have Pollard as the RB5, whereas the next ranker has him at RB10.
I guess I have a sickness.
Pollard has 719 yards in nine games on 135 carries and 35 targets. He’s the clear No. 1 RB on the team that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring (29.9 PPG).
The only problem is that he last scored a TD in Week 1—even though the Cowboys put up 49 points last week—and he has sabotaged his season with relative inefficiency (3.9 yards per carry, 5.4 yards per target).
Fine, that’s two problems, and they’re not small, but maybe—maybe?—they won’t matter this week: As a double-digit favorite, Pollard could approach 20-plus touches and have multiple goal-line opportunities.
The matchup could not be much better: The Panthers are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.071) and SR (45.1%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).
At some point, Pollard will convert touches and yards into TDs.
WR – Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Bills
No one on staff is higher than I am on Wilson, whom I have at WR15.
Wilson has just two TDs on the year, but he has an obscene 11.3 targets per game in QB Zach Wilson’s eight starts and 13.3 targets per game—good for 23-273-0 receiving — since the Week 7 bye.
His utilization within the Jets' offense is elite (97% route rate, 26% target rate, 32% target share, 45% air share, league-high 50% of redzone targets, and second-best 80.4% WOPR).
The Bills are playing on short rest off of Monday Night Football and are vulnerable on the perimeter without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR).
RB – Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs 49ers
Rachaad White can’t stop, won’t stop, turning his always RB1-caliber usage into newfound RB1-level production.
Shoutout to White for earning ESPN’s highest overall receiving rating among all RBs—he’s earned it with a league-high 17 missed tackles forced on receptions and zero drops on the season. This is probably where White will have to make his money in fantasy land this week ahead of a matchup with Nick Bosa and company.
Still, it’s not like this 49ers defense has pitched a complete shutout against opposing RBs this season. Credit to them for allowing the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to the position, but the likes of Kyren Williams (28 PPR points), Joe Mixon (20), and Kareem Hunt (16.1) each managed to post solid numbers on the back of (wait for it) VOLUME.
White has finished with at least 16 touches in all but one game this season. Christian McCaffrey (80%) and Travis Etienne (79%) are the only RBs who have played a higher percentage of their offense’s snaps than White (78%).
The matchup isn’t ideal, but White has the sort of ELITE volume—particularly in the passing game—to warrant must-start treatment anyway. The RB12 in PPR points per game on the season, White has out-scored guys like Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, and Bijan Robinson—he deserves the same volume-based RB1 treatment that they do at this point.
White is my RB11—well ahead of our consensus rank as the RB18. Great day to be great, some might say.
QB – Brock Purdy (49ers) vs Buccaneers
Brock Purdy (296-3-0) and company got back on track to the tune of 34 points against what was believed to be a pretty good Jaguars defense last week.
Nov 12, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; San Fransisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
The offense undoubtedly benefited from getting healthy versions of both WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams back in action; nobody has held this group under 30 points all season with at least three of their big-four stud non-QBs healthy (shoutout Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk).
Seriously: The splits from this group during the first five weeks of the season and last week make the best version of the 49ers look a lot like the best overall offense in the NFL, even though their overall 2023 numbers aren’t too shabby anyway.
- EPA per play: +0.22 (overall NFL leader: 49ers – +0.14)
- TD drive %: 36.9% (overall NFL leader: Dolphins – 37%)
- Yards per play: 6.5 (overall NFL leader: Dolphins – 6.8)
- Yards per pass attempt: 9.5 (overall NFL leader: 49ers – 9.2)
- Yards per rush attempt: 4.6 (overall NFL leader: Dolphins – 5.8)
Criticisms of Purdy being a “system” QB are a moot point in fantasy land: Style points don’t matter, and the second-year talent is operating one of the most lethal systems in the entire NFL. Nobody has a higher average team PFF rush and receiving grade than the 49ers (89).
No offense is set up better on paper this week than the 49ers against the bad and banged-up Buccaneers defense. While Purdy has had many good games this season, he’s yet to post a top-three finish—I believe this could change ahead of this dream home matchup.
Purdy comes in as my QB8 on the week ahead of guys like Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, and even Justin Herbert—three signal-callers who I certainly believe are better overall talents at the position, but also guys inside offenses far less assured to breeze past 30 points. I’m locking in Purdy as the upside QB1 that he’s been all season long when given the benefit of a fully healthy supporting cast WHO IS WITH ME.
