2024 Early Best Ball Strategy. It's never too early to draft.
It might seem absurd, but we’re already drafting 2024 best ball teams.
In fact, some people started drafting them over a month ago when Underdog Fantasy first dropped its Big Board contest–a way too early best ball tournament with a $100,000 top prize.
I stood my ground for as long as I could, but finally capitulated earlier this week and started drafting teams.
I only have a few teams under my belt so far, but I wanted to share some of my initial thoughts on the current ADP environment and strategies to employ.
Over the coming weeks and months we’ll get more granular with our analysis–specifically with this loaded rookie class–so today will serve more as a high level overview for those wanting to dip their toes in.
By the way, I highly recommend checking out the early Top 150 ranks from both Matthew Freedman and Dwain McFarland before hopping into early drafts.
As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with code LIFE below!
Embrace rookie uncertainty
With the incoming rookie class included in the player pool, there’s a fresh batch of names to draft alongside all of our favorite veterans.
And let me tell you, the market is hip to the importance of rookies:
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR 11 (ADP: 18.2)
- WR Malik Nabers - WR 23 (ADP: 34.2)
- WR Rome Odunze - WR 33 (ADP 54.1)
- TE Brock Bowers - TE7 (ADP 76.4)
Long gone are the days when you could get rookie Garrett Wilson in the 12th round. Hell, even Ja’Marr Chase was a 5th/6th rounder heading into his rookie campaign. In 2024, you’ll need to burn a 2nd round pick on Harrison Jr. and a 3rd round pick on Nabers.
Even with these inflated prices, we should still be attacking rookies throughout our draft. In these top-heavy contests where all of the money is distributed in Week 17, rookies routinely serve as the best asymmetric upside bet to make.
For example, Packers rookie WR Jayden Reed–who was cheap in drafts all summer–was a key piece to winning best ball rosters after he went for 6-89-2 in Week 17.
Dec 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) and Minnesota Vikings safety Josh Metellus (44) during the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Even if you aren’t intimately familiar with the prospect you are clicking, you are likely much better off selecting a rookie projected for decent draft capital than a veteran with limited upside.
This WR class in particular is loaded and I recommend saving a few roster spots on each team for rookie WR fliers at the end of your draft. Dane Brugler, for reference, has seventeen WRs in his Top 100 overall prospects.
For some players to consider mixing into your early drafts, Check out Jonathan’s Top 10 dynasty prospects.
Zero RB is king
One of the main reasons to draft RBs early in drafts is because of projectable volume.
Projecting that volume, however, is much easier the closer we get to the start of the season and incredibly difficult to do in February.
When you factor in the uncertainty of franchise tags, free agency, and the NFL Draft, the pool of “safe” RB selections who project for significant volume evaporates.
Seriously, look at these Top 12 backs:
I’d argue that after De’Von Achane (who is tough to classify in his own right because it’s a pure bet on unicorn talent), every single RB has questions about where they will be playing, what their workload will be, and if they will face additional competition for touches after the draft.
Because of this, I’ve naturally been funneled to Zero RB builds where I load up on talented pass catchers early and wait on RBs.
In both of my first two drafts, I didn’t select a RB until pick 75 or later–Rhamondre Stevenson (77) and Tyjae Spears (75).
Fortunately, there are plenty of Zero RB dart throws in the mid-rounds that make this not only a viable strategy, but the optimal one.
A few of the other Zero RB targets I like right now: David Montgomery (ADP: 73.3), Najee Harris (84.7), Brian Robinson Jr. (91.1), Jaylen Warren (96.6), Jonathon Brooks (119.3), and Ty Chandler (125.6).
QB & TE Deals
Because the Big Board draft is 20 rounds (2 extra than the post-draft contests like The Puppy and Best Ball Mania), there are many viable constructions in play.
With the two extra rounds, there’s a temptation to automatically default to 3-QB and 3-TE builds for the extra safety, but it’s important to remain sensitive to the draft capital you allocate to the position and let that dictate how many players you select at the onesie position.
If you take Josh Allen (ADP: 20.2) in the second round and grab a falling Joe Burrow (ADP: 71.2) in the seventh round, there is no reason to force a third QB onto the team. You’ve made big bets on two Top 7 QBs and spent significant draft capital on acquiring them.
To balance your quality at the QB position, you’ll need to pursue quantity to the other positions and use those extra bullets for more RBs and WRs.
In my first draft, I stuck with just two QBs because I selected Burrow in the 6th and Kyler Murray in the 9th.
In my second draft, however, I didn’t select my first QB–rookie Drake Maye–until the 12th round. I tacked on Will Levis and Michael Penix Jr. in rounds 16 and 20 to make up for my lack of quality (and you could easily argue this is still not a sufficient QB room lol).
But the point is to not blindly use your extra roster spots on QBs and TEs and be mindful of where you’ve spent your resources and act accordingly in the final rounds.
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I’ll be drafting Big Board teams every Monday morning at 10am ET if you want to watch me continue to get acclimated with the 2024 drafting environment.
We’ll be back in future weeks with more strategy, tips, and tricks for early drafts.
