Underdog Best Ball Week 1 Pick Em Targets: MarShawn Lloyd Is Going Higher

Football season is back. If you're anything like me you will have fantasy matchups riding on every game this season, but still want a way to have more skin in the game. Pick 'ems on Underdog are a fun way to build a lineup with your highest confidence picks.

Every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

The Top Week 1 Underdog Best Ball Picks

MarShawn Lloyd higher than 43.5 rushing yards

With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, MarShawn Lloyd should work as the lead back for the Packers offense. The team traded for Kaleb Johnson at the end of August and his role figures to grow the longer that Jacobs is out, but I expect Lloyd to be the clear top back in Week 1.

The fantasy football projections have Lloyd for 14.5 rush attempts and 55 rushing yards, a significant edge over his current line on Underdog. The Packers face a solid, but unspectacular Vikings defense in Minnesota. There has been some chatter about Green Bay embracing a more pass-heavy approach this year, and the absence of Jacobs does give them a reason to lean more on Jordan Love. However, context is important here as the Packers had the fourth highest rush rate and a -4.4% PROE last season. Even if they do throw the ball more, there should be enough rush attempts for Lloyd to get up to the 14-15 rush range where we expect him to be. If he gets to 14 rushes, he needs to average just over 3.1 YPC in order to beat this line, that seems like a very reasonable ask.

Brenton Strange lower than 39.5 receiving yards

I don't think the Jaguars are going to need to throw the ball a ton against the Cleveland Browns so I generally like taking the lower on their pass catchers, but Brenton Strange is my favorite player to go against because of the competition for targets that he faces from the WR room and the fact that he is the least likely pass catcher to break a long reception. Running routes alongside Brian Thomas, Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter is going to make it difficult for Strange to command a high rate of targets per route run. In a game where the Jaguars have a good chance of leading by multiple scores I think the passing volume will be low and Strange will be impacted the most.

The Fantasy Life projections have Strange for 27.5 receiving yards, so I bumped the line up to 39.5 receiving yards to give a bit more cushion without significantly decreasing the payout.

Rico Dowdle higher than 42.5 rushing yards

The Steelers are home favorites against a Falcons team that is missing two of their best defensive lineman (James Pearce and Jalon Walker). They should be able to run the ball effectively in this one, and I expect them to be a pragmatic offense in 2026 with a 42-year-old QB at the helm.

The Fantasy Life projections have Rico Dowdle for 54.6 rushing yards, and I think that is a much better line. This will be a true committee situation with Dowdle and Jaylen Warren splitting snaps, but Dowdle is likely to see a bit more of the early-down rushing work while Warren will play a bigger role in the passing game. For context, our projections only have Dowdle for 12.8 rush attempts, which I think he could easily exceed if the game script plays out how I think it will.

Putting these three picks together results in an estimated 5.46x payout. Nothing too flashy, but a nice bankroll builder for early in the season.

More Underdog Best Ball Longshots

Juwan Johnson higher 0.5 rushing/receiving TDs

The Saints-Lions matchup is one of my favorites to target for DFS in Week 1 because it features two fast-paced offenses facing off in a dome against mediocre defenses. This game has a 49.5 point game total and true shootout potential. I like all of the major offensive pieces for both teams but my favorite way to get a nice payout is picking Juwan Johnson to score. Johnson is the number two target in the passing game for as long as Jordyn Tyson is out and showed good chemistry with Tyler Shough last season on his way to 77 receptions and 889 receiving yards. I expect both teams to make a number of trips to the red zone with a high probability of converting those trips into TDs.

Adding this into a lineup with the three top picks results in an expected 17.13x payout if they all hit.

Michael Wilson higher than 5.5 receptions

The Arizona Cardinals are basically in the same situation they were last year as a bad team with a competent offense. We saw the same game script play out many times last year with the Cardinals falling behind early and then having to air it out in comeback mode. Jacoby Brissett attempted 40 or more passes in seven of his twelve starts, and was never below 31. I am expecting the same type of game in Week 1 when the Cardinals go to LA as 9.5 point underdogs to the Chargers.

There has been a constant stream of positive reports on Michael Wilson this offseason, but the one that caught my attention was the report that Arizona plans to use him in a similar role to how the Rams use Puka Nacua. That means plenty of motion and schemed targets to create opportunities to add yards after the catch. In games where Arizona is trailing this should lead to a lot of targets and receptions. It also helps that rookie RB Jeremiyah Love is not at full strength following his ankle injury a few weeks ago which may push the team towards a more pass-heavy plan of attack.

Adding Wilson to my three core picks pushes the expected payout to 21.67x which would be a great way to start the season.