Best Ball Late Round Targets. Players you need to draft

Drafters see the late rounds as a time to throw darts. Or, maybe even as a time to zone out. They already got their studs and made their Week 17 stacks. You won’t find any  “What If Mack Hollins Is The Guy You Need?” think pieces out there.

But what if a guy like Mack Hollins was the one you needed?

I found all players outperforming their regular-season ADP using Best Ball Mania II and III data. Injuries and trades are a common theme, but there’s an archetype across the skill positions that can help us make better decisions as we close out our drafts.

Notes on process

The easy part was collecting and comparing the ADPs to the end-year results. But necessary context had to be applied. Jimmy Garoppolo had to step in (the first time) after Trey Lance suffered a knee sprain in Week 5 of the ’21 season. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s season/career-ending hip injury gave us Taylor Heinicke. So our samples at QB are limited.

We may not have thought the passers were stellar options, but we believed in their surroundings. Three of the four signal callers had at least two pass catchers with a top-100 ADP. And, if needed, they could rely on their RBs to keep the chains moving, as all four had one rusher in the top 100. 

So, we’re looking for a high-end passing game with a mid-level ground game. But with RBs, it was a bit different.

Yes, the CMC trade vaulted Chuba Hubbard into the fantasy spotlight. And, looking back on it, Raheem Mostert’s torn ACL paved the way for Elijah Mitchell. However, the market, by ADP, told us a different RB on the same team was more valuable.

Ambiguous backfields are tough to pin down, but every RB on the list had at least two rushers from their team drafted ahead of them. And, outside of Jerick McKinnon’s role with Kansas City, the other rushers hovered around the league average in pass rate over expectation. So, if the job fell to them, they would earn the requisite touches to be fantasy-relevant. And with WRs, it was easy to see how they flew under the radar.

Despite two-high coverages forcing shorter throws, fantasy football still has room for the “DeSean Jackson” archetype. Twelve of the 18 WRs had an average target depth of 10 or more yards. 

Hunter Renfrow and Allen Lazard obviously buck the trend, but their status as the “forgotten WR3 with upside” on their respective squads made them viable, and their on-field deployment did the rest.

WRs with similar situations are perfect for best ball. Season-long projections can’t account for a busted play giving you a much-needed spike week, and the associated opportunity cost reduces your risk. So, identifying a WR with a clear path to downfield targets from an aggressive passer (or slot looks) is worth a click.

Now let’s apply some of this logic to current ADP over on Underdog.

Speaking of Underdog Fantasy, you can double your first deposit of up to $100 when you create a new account! Sign up below and start drafting today!

QBs with strong surroundings

Sam Howell, Commanders (ADP: 212.5)

Howell is one of two QBs with a late-round ADP, while a pair of his pass-catchers has top-100 draft value. Given Howell’s single start last year, I get the skepticism, but his primary duo has the market’s attention.

• Terry McLaurin (WR26): finished fourth in first downs per target and 15th in YPRR across all WRs (min. 75 targets)
• Jahan Dotson (WR40): second amongst all rookies in YAC per reception after returning from injury (Weeks 11-18)

Howell has a formidable trio with Curtis Samuel back to man the slot. And the last time Logan Thomas could cobble together a full season (2020), he had the third-highest end-zone target share for all TEs. But Washington’s weapons can’t be the only catalyst for Howell’s development. That’s where Eric Bienemy makes his mark.

Jan 8, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

There’s no question Patrick Mahomes is a 1 of 1 passer in the NFL. However, Andy Reid and Bienemy took the right steps to unleash him on the league. 

Kansas City was fifth in play-action rate (noted as a “cheat code” in increasing QB efficiency) during Mahomes’s first season as the Chiefs’ starter. They’ve since fallen to 19th as the offense evolved. A similar plan for Howell would make sense to keep him upright and get the ball to his playmakers.

Howell has the on- and off-field infrastructure common to 75% of the QBs to exceed their ADP over the last two seasons (e.g., Bridgewater – 2021, Goff – 2022, Smith – 2022). Plus, the kid can scamper for a score if needed. With rushing upside and high-end receiving talent, Howell has some appeal in 3-QB builds.

Other Options: Desmond Ridder (206.1)

RBs in ambiguous backfields

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (ADP: 182.7)

There’s no ambiguity in Carolina’s depth chart. During free agency, Miles Sanders inked a 4-year, $25.4M contract with the Panthers. Chuba Hubbard’s rookie contract is worth…not $25.4M. And drafters took the financial disparity to heart.

 After telling the fantasy community not to draft him, the former Eagles rusher hit career-highs in yards and touchdowns. 

However, despite closing out the regular season third in success rate, it’s easy to see Sanders as a beneficiary of the Eagles’ potent offense. Plus, the talent disparity paints a different picture when comparing him to his new backfield mate.

Granted, Hubbard played in fewer games. Still, he posted comparable numbers during Christian McCaffrey’s absence in 2021. 

Plus, even as Philadelphia’s leading rusher, Sanders still ceded 31.2% of the RB touches to Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. At pick 211, I’ll sign up for (potentially) a third of the work.

Sanders’s connection with the Panthers’ coaching staff gives him the inside track. But Hubbard’s on-field play warrants a tighter gap between the two, creating value in drafts.

Zonovan Knight, Jets (ADP: 215.9)

Breece Hall’s return looks on track, and the market expects a full workload for the 22-year-old rusher. But, even as Hall began to take over the backfield last year, he still left some room for another fantasy option.

Hall eclipsed 60% of the team’s snaps in three games (Weeks 4-6). However, Michael Carter mixed in on 31.6% of the touches. After Hall’s injury, it was Zonovan Knight’s time. However, Knight couldn’t beat his situation. 

The Jets closed out the season with a six-game losing streak. And Knight’s fantasy production (7.5 half-PPR PPG) reflected the team’s performance. But the key takeaway was the touches he earned.

Despite the Jets adding James Robinson midseason, Knight handled 56.7% of the totes while leading the backfield in red-zone touches. He had the crew's highest forced missed tackle and explosive run rate (indicating he can complement Hall) and, most importantly, was the most efficient receiver at 1.37 YPRR.

With Nathaniel Hackett as OC, the Packers were top 10 in targets to their RBs in two of the three seasons. Knight already demonstrated he could take on the primary role last year. In a better offensive situation, he’s better suited to be the Jets’ RB2 as Hall re-acclimates to the offense.

Other Options: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (211.2), Kyren Williams (215.7)

Forgotten WR3s 

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (ADP: 185.9)

On the one hand, Tyquan Thornton secured early-round draft capital in a loaded ’22 WR class. And, he went to a squad devoid of young receiving talent. But it was the Patriots. 

Mac Jones regressed in nearly every passing category under Matt Patricia’s “guidance.” After a promising rookie campaign, Jones fell to the bottom 10 in EPA per play and completion percentage over expectation as a sophomore. 

But one aspect of the Patriots' passing game didn’t change: Jones’s downfield throws.

Mac’s deep-ball rate increased from 2021, and the results weren’t as painful as the rest of his stats. He ranked 16th in PFF’s passing grade on attempts of 20 air yards or more and generated the fifth-most passing yards on those throws. 

After missing the early parts of last season because of an injury, Thornton immediately stepped in as the WR2 behind Jakobi Meyers. Thornton’s 14.7 aDOT and his 4.28 speed match the WR archetype capable of putting up spike weeks on minimal value. However, with Meyers out of the picture, Thornton has more standalone value in his second year.

Terrace Marshall, Panthers (ADP: 213.9)

It’s hard to argue against someone’s spot on the depth chart when they’ve got highlights like these.

Sure, Laviska Shenault got one long score and rushed in another one a couple of months later. But after the McCaffrey trade, the passing game had targets to spare. And Terrace Marshall, not Shenault, played as the WR2 behind D.J. Moore.

Surprisingly, Marshall spent only 9.0% of his snaps from the slot. After recording a 47.1% interior route rate at LSU, he played as the perimeter WR for the Panthers in ’22. Regardless, he still earned more looks than the former Jaguars receiver, while averaging a 12.7-yard target depth.

The Panthers’ passing attack is nebulous. Jonathan Mingo could earn top billing, but Marshall could replicate DJ Chark’s projected role or move back to the inside. Despite the crowded skill group, Marshall has shown the ability to produce ahead of his current ADP.

Other Options: Marvin Jones (208.5), Deonte Harty (211.3), Olamide Zaccheaus (215.9)

You can start drafting these late-round values on Underdog Fantasy, where you get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you create a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!