2024 NFL Mock Draft v3. Jayden Daniels is the QB2 in a loaded class.
With the NFL combine behind us, we’re now just a few days away from the start of NFL free agency, so this feels like a good time to publish a new 2024 mock draft.
Here’s the previous versions:
- Version 1 (Feb. 2023): Post-Super Bowl
- Version 2 (Feb. 2023): Pre-Combine
Over the past five years I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
- 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
- 2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)
Here’s my updated mock.
2024 NFL Mock Draft
- 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
- 1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
- 1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
- 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
- 1.05 (Chargers): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
- 1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
- 1.07 (Titans): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
- 1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
- 1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
- 1.10 (Jets): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
- 1.11 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
- 1.12 (Broncos): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
- 1.13 (Raiders): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
- 1.14 (Saints): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)
- 1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)
- 1.16 (Seahawks): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
- 1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
- 1.18 (Bengals): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
- 1.19 (Rams): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
- 1.20 (Steelers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
- 1.21 (Dolphins): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
- 1.22 (Eagles): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
- 1.23 (Texans): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
- 1.24 (Cowboys): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
- 1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
- 1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)
- 1.27 (Cardinals): EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
- 1.28 (Bills): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
- 1.29 (Lions): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
- 1.30 (Ravens): OT Graham Barton (Duke)
- 1.31 (49ers): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
- 1.32 (Chiefs): WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Mock-to-Mock Movement
Here are players I’ve moved into and out of Round 1 since the previous version.
- Players Into Round 1: EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri), OT Graham Barton (Duke), WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
- Players Out of Round 1: WR Keon Coleman (Florida State), CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri), WR Troy Franklin (Oregon)
1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
Any mock that doesn’t have Williams No. 1 overall is trying too hard. He goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past month.
The price is steep, but he might still be bettable at -1200 (DraftKings). For some price-shopping perspective, he’s already as high at another book as -2000 (FanDuel).
By the time we get to draft day, this number could be -5000.
I originally bet Williams No. 1 at -900 and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
Ben Standig of The Athletic — a sharp mock drafter and ace beat reporter for the Commanders — has Daniels at No. 2.
Mike Sando (also of The Athletic) surveyed six NFL executives during and after the combine: Five of them expected Daniels to go to Washington.
In his first show after the combine, Rich Eisen of NFL Network highlighted the five juiciest rumors he heard in Indianapolis — and one of them was that Daniels is the QB2 ahead of Drake Maye in this class.
Maye is still a minus money favorite across the industry to go No. 2, but I think that’s flat-out wrong. I bet Daniels No. 2 at +155, and I still like him enough at +120 (FanDuel).
1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
At this point, I’m not convinced that Maye goes ahead of WR Marvin Harrison or QB J.J. McCarthy.
But based on the numbers it’s not as if there’s much analytically “wrong” with Maye. He had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing. He has sufficient size (6-foot-4 and 223 pounds). With two years of starting experience and good production, he’s not a one-year wonder. And he’s not old (22 years old as a rookie).
Even so, his draft stock has dropped since the season ended.
1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
In all but one mock I’ve seen, Harrison is the first non-QB selected. I bet him at -475 to be the top non-QB, but he might still offer value at -650 (DraftKings).
In Matthew Berry’s piece on the 25 most interesting things he heard at the combine is this item: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”
I wouldn’t bet him at -1050 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 WR. I don’t like that juice. But Harrison is very likely to be the top pass catcher selected.
1.05 (Chargers): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
The Chargers don’t technically need an OT given that they have LT Rashawn Slater and RT Trey Pipkins — but the team has a potential out with Pipkins after 2024, and he’s an average-at-best lineman. His presence shouldn’t preclude the team from upgrading the OL.
Alt is the first non-skill player drafted in almost every mock.
1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
The edge that Nabers has over Rome Odunze has diminished over the past few weeks, but for now I still have him as the No. 2 WR in the class.
He’ll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign, he balled out with 89-1,569-14 receiving last season, and the Giants need pass-catching assistance.
1.07 (Titans): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
RT Chris Hubbard is a free agent, and the Titans need to upgrade the OL.
Fuaga is No. 9 overall and the OL1 in Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent top 50.
1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
After blazing a position-best 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine at 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, Turner is -115 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 defender selected in the class.
I take a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach when projecting the draft, and Turner has been the first defender off the board in 72% of the recent mocks I’ve surveyed.
1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88-second three-cone drill) with old-school prototypical size (6-foot-3 and 212 pounds.).
Odunze isn’t guaranteed to go in the top 10, but this fits his draft range, and I especially like the idea of Odunze going to the Bears to partner with WR D.J. Moore and TE Cole Kmet as a solid pass-catching unit for Williams.
1.10 (Jets): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
The Jets need to get someone to protect QB Aaron Rodgers. They’re -250 (FanDuel) to take an OL with their first pick.
On the one hand, that number is outrageous and unbettable. On the other hand … they go with an OL in 84% of recent sharp mocks.
Given the need they have at the position, the wealth of top-tier OTs in the class, and their elevated draft position, it would be an upset if the Jets didn’t take an offensive trenchman.
1.11 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Given that franchise QB Kirk Cousins is increasingly likely to reach free agency, the Vikings could opt for a new QB in the draft, and McCarthy has become a popular pick for them in recent mocks.
With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2” and 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated long-term upside.
1.12 (Broncos): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
Do I think Bowers will actually go to the Broncos? No.
But both the Broncos and Bowers are hard to project, and No. 12 fits his draft range.
I’m slotting Bowers here largely out of convenience — but it’s not as if the Broncos have an entrenched TE on the roster. This pick is possible.
1.13 (Raiders): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
With new defensive-minded HC Antonio Pierce, the Raiders could look to take someone in the trenches to pair with three-time Pro-Bowl EDGE Maxx Crosby.
Murphy impressed at the combine with his athleticism (4.87-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 297 pounds.). Possessing three-down ability and tenacity, he should add much-needed muscle to the Raiders DL.
1.14 (Saints): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)
Latham played primarily RT in college, but he has NFL LT potential, based on his recruitment pedigree (five stars), experience (two years starting in the SEC), quality of play (four sacks allowed as starter), and age (21 years old).
For the Saints, LT Andrus Peat is a free agent.
1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)
The Colts could lose No. 1 CB Kenny Moore in free agency, and CBs JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers are unproven. They could use another body at corner.
Mitchell was a combine winner with his elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 195 pounds).
1.16 (Seahawks): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
It’s hard to predict what the Seahawks will do without former HC Pete Carroll, but the defense needs help along the line.
Verse has the kind of athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 254 pounds) that the Seahawks have historically liked.
1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
Arnold disappointed at the combine (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 189 pounds) — but he can fall only so far down the board due to his ball production (five INTs in 2023), overall pedigree (first-team All-American at Alabama), and age (still just 20 years old).
Arnold should immediately upgrade perimeter CB for the Jaguars.
1.18 (Bengals): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
A three-year starter, Fautanu was the top dog on the unit that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, given annually to the top OL in college football. With the outside/inside flexibility, he’ll be a plug-and-play Week 1 NFL contributor.
1.19 (Rams): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
Latu could fall a little down the board due to good-not-great athleticism (4.64-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 259 pounds) and legitimate injury concerns (he medically retired in 2021 because of neck fusion).
But the 2023 Ted Hendricks Award winner and unanimous first-team All-American is probably the most NFL-ready pass rusher in the class (23.5 sacks in final two seasons), and he could be a natural replacement to free agent EDGE Michael Hoecht.
1.20 (Steelers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
The Steeles released C Mason Cole in February, and Powers-Johnson — the 2023 Rimington Trophy winner and a unanimous first-team All-American — is all but locked into Round 1.
1.21 (Dolphins): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
The Dolphins could lose LG Isaiah Wynn and RG Robert Hunt in free agency. Mims could start his NFL career inside before eventually kicking out to OT.
1.22 (Eagles): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
Wiggins is small (6-foot-1 and 173 pounds) but was the fastest DB at the combine (4.28-second 40-yard dash).
CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both on the wrong side of 30, and the Eagles need one more corner for the nickel package.
1.23 (Texans): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
The Texans might lose DT Sheldon Rankins in free agency, and Newton (a 2023 first-team All-American) has the potential to step in as an immediate replacement.
1.24 (Cowboys): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
Franchise LT Tyron Smith and swing OT Chuma Edoga are set to hit free agency. They need another OL bookend, and Guyton has experience on both sides of the line.
1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
DeJean can man up as an outside corner, but he also has the flexibility to play in the slot and at safety — and the Packers could lose slot CB Keisean Nixon, SS Rudy Ford and FS Darnell Savate in free agency.
1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)
Robinson flashed at the combine with his elite athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 254 pounds) and HC Todd Bowles needs more playmakers for his defense.
1.27 (Cardinals): EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
Robinson’s size (6-foot-5 and 285 pounds) gives him inside/outside versatility in HC Jonathan Gannon’s defense.
1.28 (Bills): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
The Bills need to get QB Josh Allen more help, and Thomas has long-term potential as a No. 1 WR. I bet them at +150 (DraftKings) to select a WR with their first pick.
1.29 (Lions): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
The Lions should’ve drafted a corner in Round 1 last year, and they should probably draft multiple defensive backs in the top 100 this year.
1.30 (Ravens): OT Graham Barton (Duke)
Barton has inside/outside versatility and might start his career on the interior. The Ravens could lose LG John Simpson and RG Kevin Zeitler in free agency.
1.31 (49ers): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
If the 49ers had a better OL, they might be Super Bowl champions right now.
1.32 (Chiefs): WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
With his combine-record deep speed (4.21-second 40-yard dash), Worthy feels like a (hopefully much) better version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whom the team recently released.
And maybe — if the Chiefs are lucky — Worthy will give them some of the same explosive downfield playmaking ability they had years ago with WR Tyreek Hill.
If Worthy is on the board at No. 32 and the Chiefs opt to select some defensive player instead, the internet might riot. They need to get a potential No. 1 WR for QB Patrick Mahomes.
Borderline Prospects
These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.
- QB Bo Nix (Oregon)
- WRs Adonai Mitchell (Texas), Keon Coleman (Florida State), Troy Franklin (Oregon) & Ladd McConkey (Georgia)
- OT Kingsley Suamatia (Brigham Young)
- C Zach Frazier (West Virginia)
- DT Kris Jenkins (Michigan)
- CBs Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri) & Kamari Lassiter (Georgia)
