2024 NFL Mock Draft v6.0 - A New Era for the Vikings
As I’m writing this, we’re about 10 days away from the NFL draft, so I’m publishing a new mock. The content machine isn’t going to churn itself.
Here are my previous versions:
- Version 1 (Feb. 2023): Post-Super Bowl
- Version 2 (Feb. 2023): Pre-Combine
- Version 3 (Mar. 2023): Post-Combine
- Version 4 (Apr. 2023): Post-Free Agency
- Version 5 (Apr. 2023): Two Weeks Away
Over the past five years, I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
- 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
- 2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)
Here’s my updated 2024 NFL mock draft.
2024 NFL Mock Draft - Pick-by-Pick Breakdown
1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
Williams goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past two months, and he’s -10000 to go No. 1 at every sportsbook in the universe.
There should probably be an extra zero attached to his odds.
I’m not saying you should bet -10000. I’m saying you hopefully bet this months ago. I originally bet Williams No. 1 at -900 and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Pick via Panthers.
1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
Ben Standig of The Athletic—a sharp mock drafter and ace beat reporter for the Commanders—has Daniels at No. 2.
The best price I see for Daniels No. 2 is -150 (bet365), and I think those odds are fair. He has gone No. 2 in 64% of recent sharp mocks I’ve perused, and his -150 odds carry a 60% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator).
I bet Daniels No. 2 at +155.
1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
Maye’s draft stock has dropped since the season ended, but I don’t think there’s much wrong with him as a prospect: He had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing. He has sufficient size (6’4” and 223 lbs.). With two years of starting experience and good production, he’s not a one-year wonder. And he’s not geriatric (he’ll be 22 years old as a rookie).
The Patriots are lucky to get such a strong QB prospect at No. 3.
1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
The Cardinals could trade down (several teams might want to move up for a QB), but for now I’m going to rely on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”
Harrison is -500 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 WR … and that number might undersell his true odds if sharp mocks are representative of reality.
1.05 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Projected trade: Vikings get 1.05, Chargers get 1.11 and 1.23.
The Vikings move up to select McCarthy as the replacement for former QB Kirk Cousins.
With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2” and 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has under-appreciated long-term upside.
1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
The Giants go with a WR in 80% of sharp mocks, and Nabers is a strong option to be the No. 2 WR: He’ll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign, and he balled out with 89-1,569-14 receiving last season.
Nov 25, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) rushes against Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Deuce Harmon (11) during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Giants need pass-catching assistance, and I’m intrigued by Nabers at No. 6 at +170 (FanDuel).
1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
Alt at No. 7 is as chalky as it gets: His draft prop is 7.5 with strong juice to the under (-230, DraftKings), and he’s -290 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 OL.
He’s the first non-skill player taken in almost every mock.
1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
Turner is losing some steam in the market: Two weeks ago he was -200 to be the No. 1 defender selected, and now he’s just -110 (DraftKings).
I bet him at -115 over a month ago and still like him at his current odds: His position-best athleticism (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 247 lbs.) makes him a desirable prospect with true playmaking potential.
1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
If the Bears select Odunze, they will have one of the league’s best pass-catching units with Odunze, WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, TEs Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, and RB D’Andre Swift.
Given the investment the Bears are making in Williams at No. 1, it makes sense to give their young passer as much support as they can, and Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88-second three-cone drill) with old-school prototypical size (6’3” and 212 lbs.).
In a less-stacked class, Odunze would have a good chance to be the No. 1 WR. At No. 9, he represents great value for the Bears and for bettors at +260 (bet365).
1.10 (Jets): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
Before free agency, almost every mock went OL at No. 10, but then the Jets signed LT Tyron Smith and LG John Simpson, traded for RT Morgan Moses, and cut TE C.J. Uzomah.
With a rebuilt OL, the Jets should be able to protect QB Aaron Rodgers—but they could use an impact TE (with all apologies to Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert).
1.11 (Chargers): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
If the Chargers stay at No. 5, there’s a decent chance they’ll take either the top OL on the board or the No. 2 WR.
In this mock they trade down, still get a top-tier OL, and add No. 23, which they can use on a top-five WR in a loaded class.
Fuaga played RT in college and is a natural bookend with Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater.
Pick via Vikings (projected trade).
1.12 (Broncos): QB Bo Nix (Oregon)
The Broncos will reveal themselves to be an unserious organization if QB Jarrett Stidham is their Week 1 starter. They need a QB.
Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates victory at the end of the 2024 Fiesta Bowl against the Liberty Flames at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Nix has a half decade of high-end starting experience in college (Auburn, then Oregon), and last year he was No. 2 in the nation—just behind Daniels—with an 11.2 AY/A on the strength of 4,508 yards and 45 TDs passing to just three INTs.
1.13 (Raiders): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
The Raiders lost RT Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency, and LT Kolton Miller has just two years left on his contract.
Fashanu has the ability to start right away at RT and slide over to the blind side later in his career if Miller eventually leaves.
1.14 (Saints): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
A three-year starter, Fautanu was the top dog on the unit that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, given annually to the top OL in college football.
With his outside/inside flexibility, Fautanu should be a plug-and-play Week 1 NFL contributor. He has a chance to challenge LT Trevor Penning, and he could be an immediate fill-in for RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee), whose future is uncertain due to long-term injury concerns.
1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)
Perimeter CBs JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers are unproven for the Colts. They could use another body on the outside.
Mitchell was a combine winner with his elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’ and 195 lbs.), and he’s -180 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 CB.
1.16 (Seahawks): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)
Latham played outside in college, but he could kick inside in the NFL or challenge RT Abraham Lucas for the starting role.
Additionally, Latham (in my opinion) has NFL LT potential, based on his recruitment pedigree (five stars), experience (two years starting in the SEC), quality of play (four sacks allowed as starter), and age (21 years old).
1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
Arnold disappointed at the combine (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6’ and 189 lbs.)—but he can fall only so far down the board due to his ball production (five INTs in 2023), overall pedigree (first-team All-American at Alabama), and age (21 years old).
Arnold should immediately upgrade perimeter corner for the Jaguars.
1.18 (Bengals): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
The Bengals signed RT Trent Brown, but he’s on just a one-year deal. The five-star Mims could start his NFL career inside before eventually kicking out to OT.
1.19 (Rams): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
I’m tempted to put EDGE Jared Verse here, but I need to slot Murphy somewhere, and the Rams are candidates to draft him after the retirement of DT Aaron Donald.
Murphy has three-down ability and impressed at the combine with his athleticism (4.87-second 40-yard dash at 6’1” and 297 lbs.).
1.20 (Steelers): OL Graham Barton (Duke)
The Steelers released C Mason Cole in February, and the versatile Barton (I believe) has overtaken C Jackson Powers-Johnson as the top iOL in the class.
1.21 (Dolphins): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
The Dolphins lost DT Christian Wilkins in free agency, and Newton (a 2023 first-team All-American) has the potential to step in as an immediate replacement.
1.22 (Eagles): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
Wiggins is small (6’1” and 173 lbs.) but was the fastest DB at the combine (4.28-second 40-yard dash).
Sep 16, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina; Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) returns an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against Florida Atlantic at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY
CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both on the wrong side of 30, and drafting Wiggins allows the Eagles to shift CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson back to safety, where he played with the Eagles in 2022 before his one-year stint with the Lions.
1.23 (Chargers): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
With the offseason departures of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers need to find a pass-catching weapon for QB Justin Herbert, and they’re able to do that at No. 23—while also drafting OL at No. 11—thanks to their trade down from No. 5.
With his college production (68-1,177-17 receiving) and athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 209 lbs.), Thomas has long-term potential as a No. 1 WR.
Pick via Vikings (projected trade).
1.24 (Cowboys): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
The Cowboys lost C Tyler Biadasz in free agency, and Powers-Johnson—the 2023 Rimington Trophy winner and a unanimous first-team All-American—has a good chance to go in Round 1.
1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
DeJean can man up as an outside corner, but he also has the flexibility to play safety.
In placing DeJean alongside CBs Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon and SS Xavier McKinney, the Packers might have one of the league’s best on-paper secondaries.
1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
Verse has an outside shot to be drafted as the No. 1 EDGE thanks to his athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6’4” and 254 lbs.), so he offers outstanding value at No. 26 as a replacement to departed EDGE Shaquil Barrett.
1.27 (Cardinals): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
Latu could fall down the board due to good-but-not-great athleticism (4.64-second 40-yard dash at 6’5” and 259 lbs.) and legitimate injury concerns (he medically retired in 2021 because of a neck fusion).
But the 2023 Ted Hendricks Award winner and unanimous first-team All-American is probably the most NFL-ready pass rusher in the class (23.5 sacks in final two seasons), and the Cardinals need an infusion of perimeter DL talent given that their top EDGEs are Dennis Gardeck and Zaven Collins.
1.28 (Bills): WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
The Bills lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis via trade and free agency this offseason: QB Josh Allen needs more help.
Enter Mitchell, who catapulted himself into Round 1 with a strong combine (4.34-second 40-yard dash at 6’2” and 205 lbs.).
The Bills are -235 (Caesars) to select a WR with their first pick. (I bet them at +150.)
1.29 (Lions): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
Even though the Lions have added CBs Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, both are on short-term deals, so the team would be wise to draft another corner.
Tennessee wide receiver Kaleb Webb (84) reaches for the ball while defended by Alabama defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) during a football game between Tennessee and Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023. Credit: Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
McKinstry entered college as a five-star recruit, he started three years in the SEC, and he had 22 passes defended in his two final seasons.
With a strong pro day (he had a 4.47-second 40-yard dash despite running on a Jones fracture), McKinstry has pushed himself back into Round 1.
1.30 (Ravens): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)
The Ravens could use another EDGE: Jadeveon Clowney left in free agency, Kyle Van Noy is old (33 years), Odafe Oweh has underwhelmed (13 sacks in three years), and David Ojabo has barely played in two seasons (106 snaps).
Robinson flashed at the combine with his elite athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 254 lbs).
1.31 (49ers): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
If the 49ers had a better OL, they might be Super Bowl champions right now.
With his elite size (6’8” and 322 lbs.), Guyton has a shot to replace either RT Colton McKivitz or RG Jon Feliciano.
1.32 (Chiefs): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
I have mocked WR Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs in previous iterations, but I have him falling out of Round 1 here: QB Patrick Mahomes needs a blindside protector, and WR is deep enough in this class for the Chiefs to find a pass-catcher they like in Round 2.
Morgan started 37 games at LT for Arizona, and is -225 (DraftKings) to go in Round 1.
Mock-to-Mock Movement
Here are players I’ve moved into and out of Round 1 since the previous version.
- Players Into Round 1: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
- Players Out of Round 1: WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Borderline Prospects
These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.
- QB Michael Penix (Washington)
- WRs Xavier Worthy (Texas) & Ladd McConkey (Georgia)
- OT Kingsley Suamatia (Brigham Young)
- C Zach Frazier (West Virginia)
- EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
- DTs Braden Fiske (Florida State) & Kris Jenkins (Michigan)
- LB Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M)
- CB Kamari Lassiter (Georgia)
- S Tyler Nubin (Minnesota)
