2024 NFL Mock Draft v5.0: Quarterbacks are flying off the board

We're just a little over two weeks out from the 2024 NFL Draft, so now feels like a good time to publish a new mock draft.

Here are my previous versions:

• Version 1 (Feb. 2023): Post-Super Bowl
• Version 2 (Feb. 2023): Pre-Combine
• Version 3 (Mar. 2023): Post-Combine
• Version 4 (Apr. 2023): Post-Free Agency

Over the past five years, I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and I’ve done well betting on the draft historically.

• 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
• 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
• 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
• 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
• 2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)

Here’s my updated mock.

2024 NFL Mock Draft - Pick-by-Pick Breakdown

1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Any mock that doesn’t have Williams No. 1 overall is trying too hard. He goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past two months.

Especially with the Bears having traded QB Justin Fields to the Steelers for a 2025 Day 3 pick, they will take a passer at the top of the draft, and Williams is the guy. 

The best price I see for Williams No. 1 is at -8000 (DraftKings). For some price-shopping perspective, at other books, he’s already as high as -10000 (BetMGM).

Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) against the California Golden Bears during the third quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

To be honest, I think this number should probably be more like -100000, and I’m not saying that you should bet this. What I’m saying is that you hopefully bet this months ago. I originally bet Williams to go No. 1 at -900 and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

But if you do want to invest in the idea of Williams going No. 1 overall, the best bet might be Williams to be the first QB selected at -5000 (DraftKings), as the Bears are all but certain to take a passer at the top of the draft.

Pick via Panthers.

1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

QB J.J. McCarthy has recently gotten some steam at No. 2, but I’m still on Daniels as the deserving frontrunner.

Ben Standig of The Athletic — a sharp mock drafter and ace beat reporter for the Commanders — has Daniels at No. 2.

The best price I see for Daniels at No. 2 is -140 (BetMGM), and I still think there’s value at that number.

At -140, he has a 58.3% implied probability to go No. 2 (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator). In 68% of the recent sharp mocks I’ve perused, he goes No. 2 overall.

I originally bet Daniels No. 2 at +155.

1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

At this point, I’m not convinced that Maye will necessarily be drafted ahead of WR Marvin Harrison Jr. or QB J.J. McCarthy.

But based on the numbers, it’s not as if there’s much analytically “wrong” with him. Maye had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing and has sufficient size (6-foot-4 and 223 pounds). With two years of starting experience and good production, he’s not a one-year wonder. And he’s not geriatric (he’ll be just 22 years old as a rookie).

Even so, his draft stock has dropped since the season ended, and now he’s just +100 (FanDuel) to go No. 3 overall. I doubt I’ll bet that, but this feels like the right spot for him.

1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

Given that the Cardinals are still in a rebuilding mode and displayed a willingness in last year’s draft to trade down, many mock drafters are projecting that the Vikings will trade picks 11 and 23 (and maybe more?) to the Cardinals for No. 4 in order to draft McCarthy.

But for now, I’m going to rely on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the NFL Combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”

And that gets me to the second part of this pick: Harrison.

Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. makes a catch against Michigan defensive backs Quinten Johnson and Mike Sainristil during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

I know that there’s some growing hype around WR Malik Nabers, who had a great pro day (4.35 40-yard dash at 6'0, 199 lbs.). He has an outside chance to overtake Harrison, who hasn’t participated at all in the pre-draft process.

That said, Harrison is still -500 (DraftKings) to be the first non-QB selected (I bet him at -475). Harrison is also still -600 (FanDuel) to be the first WR drafted.

I like Harrison to go off the board after the early run on QBs, and as of now, I tentatively expect the Cardinals to stay put at No. 4 to draft the guy who might just be the top overall player in the class.

1.05 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

Projected trade: Vikings get 1.05, Chargers get 1.11 and 1.23.

The Vikings want to move up the board, and the Chargers' new front office probably wants to acquire more picks. In this scenario, Minnesota moves up to No. 5 to select McCarthy as the heir to Kirk Cousins.

With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2, 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82 three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated long-term upside.

1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

Shortly after the combine, Rome Odunze was challenging to be the No. 2 WR in the class, but Nabers has solidified his spot as a top-two pass-catcher after his pro day.

He’ll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign and balled out with an 89-1,569-14 receiving line last season. And the Giants desperately need pass-catching help.

1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

RT Chris Hubbard is a free agent, and the Titans need to upgrade the OL.

Alt is -240 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 OL and the first non-skill position player drafted in almost every mock.

1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)

Show me a draftnik who doesn’t have Turner going to the Falcons at No. 8, and I’ll show you a liar.

After blazing a position-best 4.46 40-yard dash at the combine at 6'3 and 247 lbs., Turner is -160 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 defender selected in the class. (I bet him at -115.)

He has been the first defender off the board in 84% of the recent mocks I’ve surveyed and is often the only defensive player to be drafted in the top 10 picks.

1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

With the recent acquisition of veteran WR Keenan Allen, the Bears don’t have a pressing receiver need. In many mocks, they go with an EDGE at No. 9.

But if they were to select Odunze, Chicago would have one of the league’s best pass-catching units with Odunze, Allen, and D.J. Moore at WR along with TE Cole Kmet and RB D’Andre Swift.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) is unable to make a catch against the Michigan Wolverines during the third quarter in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Given the investment the Bears are making in Williams at No. 1, it makes sense to give their young passer as much support as they can, and the addition of Odunze will put Williams in the best position possible to succeed. 

Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88 three-cone drill) along with old-school prototypical size (6’3 and 212 lbs.). In a less-stacked class, Odunze would have a good chance to be the No. 1 rookie WR, so he presents great value for the Bears at No. 9.

1.10 (Jets): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Before free agency, almost every mock had OL projected for the Jets at No. 10, but then New York signed LT Tyron Smith and LG John Simpson, traded for RT Morgan Moses, and cut TE C.J. Uzomah.

With a rebuilt OL, the Jets should be able to protect QB Aaron Rodgers. However, they could still use an impact TE (no offense to Tyler Conklin or Jeremy Ruckert). If the Jets are lucky, Bowers could be an immediate playmaker for them even as a rookie.

1.11 (Chargers): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

If the Chargers stay at No. 5, there’s a decent chance that they’ll take either the top OL on the board or the No. 2 WR. But in this mock, after trading down, they still get a top-tier OL at No. 11 in addition to having added pick No. 23, which they can use on a top-five WR in a class loaded at the position. Fuaga played RT in college and could be a natural bookend to Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater.

I love this scenario for the Chargers.

While they don’t technically need an OT, the team has a potential out with RT Trey Pipkins after 2024, and he’s an average lineman, at best. His presence shouldn’t preclude the team from upgrading the OL.

Pick via Vikings (projected trade).

1.12 (Broncos): QB Bo Nix (Oregon)

The Broncos can’t possibly go into the season with QB Jarrett Stidham as their Week 1 starter, right? Right?!

Bo Nix has a half-decade of high-end starting experience in college (first Auburn, and then Oregon).

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throws down field against Oregon State during the second quarter at Autzen Stadium Friday, Nov. 24, 2023 in Eugene. Photo Credit: Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

And last year, he was No. 2 in the nation behind only Jayden Daniels with an 11.2 AY/A while putting up 4,508 passing yards and 45 TDs to just three INTs.

The Broncos should be desperate to find a QB, and Nix is a viable candidate to go in Round 1.

1.13 (Raiders): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Raiders lost RT Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency, and LT Kolton Miller has just two years left on his contract. 

Fashanu has the ability to start right away at RT and slide over to the blind side later in his career if Miller were to eventually leave.

1.14 (Saints): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

A three-year starter, Fautanu was the top dog on the unit that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, given annually to the top OL in college football. 

With his outside/inside flexibility, Fautanu should be a plug-and-play Week 1 NFL contributor. He has a chance to challenge LT Trevor Penning, and he could be an immediate fill-in for RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee), whose future is uncertain due to long-term injury concerns.

1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

Perimeter CBs JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers are unproven for the Colts, so they could use another body on the outside.

Mitchell was a combine winner with his elite speed (4.33 40-yard dash at 6’0 and 195 lbs.), and he’s -190 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 CB drafted.

1.16 (Seahawks): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)

Latham played outside in college, but he could kick inside in the NFL or challenge RT Abraham Lucas for the starting role.

And I think Latham even has NFL LT potential based on his recruitment pedigree (five stars), experience (two years starting in the SEC), quality of play (four sacks allowed as starter), and age (21 years old).

1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

Arnold disappointed at the combine (4.50 40-yard dash at 6'0 and 189 lbs.), but he can fall only so far down the board due to his ball production (five INTs in 2023), overall pedigree (first-team All-American at Alabama), and age (just turned 21 years old).

Arnold should immediately upgrade perimeter CB for the Jaguars.

1.18 (Bengals): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

The Bengals signed RT Trent Brown, but he’s on just a one-year deal. The five-star Mims could start his NFL career inside before eventually kicking out to OT. 

1.19 (Rams): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

With Aaron Donald having announced his retirement, the Rams need to fortify their interior DL, and Murphy impressed at the combine with his athleticism (4.87 40-yard dash at 6’1 and 297 lbs.).

Possessing three-down ability and tenacity, Murphy should start early in his career.

1.20 (Steelers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)

The Steelers released C Mason Cole in February, and Powers-Johnson, the 2023 Rimington Trophy winner and a unanimous first-team All-American, has a good chance to go in Round 1.

That said, I can see how OL Graham Barton might overtake Powers-Johnson as the top IOL in the class by the time of the draft.

1.21 (Dolphins): DT Jer'Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Dolphins lost DT Christian Wilkins in free agency, and Newton (a 2023 first-team All-American) has the potential to step in as an immediate replacement.

1.22 (Eagles): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

Wiggins is small (6'1, 173 lbs.) but was the fastest DB at the combine (4.28 40-yard dash).

CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both on the wrong side of 30, and drafting Wiggins would allow the Eagles to shift CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson back to safety, where he played with the Eagles in 2022 before his one-year stint with the Lions.

1.23 (Chargers): WR Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU)

With the offseason departures of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers need to find a pass-catching weapon for QB Justin Herbert, and they’re able to do that at No. 23 due to their projected trade down from No. 5.

Nov 11, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Florida Gators cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. (3) blocks the pass attempt to LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

With his college production (68-1,177-17 receiving) and athleticism (4.33 40-yard dash at 6'3 and 209 lbs.), Thomas has long-term potential to become a true No. 1 WR.

Pick via Vikings (projected trade).

1.24 (Cowboys): OT Graham Barton (Duke)

In Version 4.0, I had the Cowboys going with OT Tyler Guyton, but I’m pivoting to Barton here because I think his draft stock is rising. Plus, he offers outstanding positional flexibility for the Cowboys, who lost LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz in free agency.

As it turns out, those are the two positions Barton played in college.

If the Cowboys want to keep LG Tyler Smith on the interior, Barton might be serviceable at LT. If they want to let Smith play on the outside, then Barton could replace him at LG, and he’s a clear candidate to play in the middle as the successor to Biadasz. And the Cowboys could even give him a shot to compete with RT Terence Steele.

I’m not sure where Barton will play if the Cowboys draft him, but I now think it would make a lot of sense for him to go to Dallas.

1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

DeJean can man up as an outside corner, but he also has the flexibility to play safety.

In adding DeJean to an already-strong CB room of Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon and alongside SS Xavier McKinney, the Packers might have one of the league’s best secondaries on paper.

1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)

Verse has an outside shot to be drafted as the No. 1 EDGE thanks to his athleticism (4.58 40-yard dash at 6’4 and 254 lbs.), so he offers outstanding value at No. 19. Tampa Bay needs more playmakers for Todd Bowles’s defense following the departure of EDGE Shaquil Barrett to Miami.

1.27 (Cardinals): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

Latu could fall down the board a bit due to good-but-not-great athleticism (4.64 40-yard dash at 6’5 and 259 lbs.) and legitimate injury concerns (he medically retired back in 2021 because of neck fusion).

But the 2023 Ted Hendricks Award winner and unanimous first-team All-American is probably the most NFL-ready pass rusher in the class (23.5 sacks in final two seasons), and the Cardinals need an infusion of perimeter DL talent given that their current top EDGEs are Dennis Gardeck and Zaven Collins.

1.28 (Bills): WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

Buffalo needs to get QB Josh Allen more help after Gabe Davis left for Jacksonville in free agency and with Stefon Diggs now traded to Houston.

Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a touchdown pass against Washington Huskies running back Ryder Bumgarner (25) during the fourth quarter in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Enter Adonai Mitchell, who catapulted himself into real Round 1 consideration with a strong combine (4.34 40-yard dash at 6’2 and 205 lbs.).

The Bills are -240 (FanDuel) to select a WR with their first pick. (I originally bet them to draft WR at +150.)

1.29 (Lions): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Lions could easily go with a DB here, but they traded for CB Carlton Davis and signed CB Amik Robertson, so I have them adding a pass rusher to partner with EDGEs Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport.

It’s almost impossible for a team to have too many impact DLs, and the Lions still need help on defense. Robinson flashed at the combine with his elite athleticism (4.48 40-yard dash at 6'3 and 254 lbs.). 

1.30 (Ravens): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

The Ravens traded away RT Morgan Moses this offseason, and Guyton played primarily on the right side in college, so he’s a natural replacement.

If he doesn’t fit there, the Ravens can also kick him inside given that they also lost LG John Simpson and RG Kevin Zeitler in free agency.

1.31 (49ers): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)

If the 49ers had a better OL, they might be Super Bowl champions right now.

1.32 (Chiefs): WR Xavier Worthy (Texas) 

With his combine-record speed (4.21 40-yard dash), Worthy feels like a (hopefully much) better version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whom the team released earlier this offseason.

If the Chiefs are lucky, Worthy will give them some of the same explosive downfield playmaking ability they had a few years ago with WR Tyreek Hill.

Even having already signed free agent WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City can still use one more perimeter WR (I like Justin Watson, but the team could upgrade), and Brown is only on a one-year deal. On top of that, there's now some legal uncertainty surrounding slot WR Rashee Rice, so that could make WR even more of a priority for the Chiefs in this draft.

Dec 2, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Kale Smith (10) and Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) in action during the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

If Worthy is still on the board at No. 32, and the Chiefs opt to go with another position instead, the internet might riot. They need to get a potential long-term No. 1 WR for franchise QB Patrick Mahomes.

For what it’s worth, I almost went with CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, who I think belongs in Round 1. But every year, there’s a guy who probably should be in the top 32 who ends up slipping to Day 2. In this iteration of my mock, that guy is McKinstry.

Borderline Prospects

These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline between Round 1 and Round 2.

• QB Michael Penix (Washington)
• WR Ladd McConkey (Georgia)
• OT Kingsley Suamatia (Brigham Young)
• C Zach Frazier (West Virginia)
• EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
• DTs Braden Fiske (Florida State) & Kris Jenkins (Michigan)
• LB Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M)
• CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama) & Kamari Lassiter (Georgia)
• S Tyler Nubin (Minnesota)