2024 NFL Mock Draft v7.0: A Change in Strategy for the Broncos

It’s the week of the draft. It’s time to get serious and do another mock. (I’m writing this on the morning of Sun. 4/21.)

Here are my previous versions:

• Version 1 (Feb. 2023): Post-Super Bowl
• Version 2 (Feb. 2023): Pre-Combine
• Version 3 (Mar. 2023): Post-Combine
• Version 4 (Apr. 2023): Post-Free Agency
• Version 5 (Apr. 2023): Two Weeks Away
• Version 6 (Apr. 2023): One Week Away

Over the past five years, I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.

• 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
• 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
• 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
• 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
• 2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)

Here are a few preliminary notes before we get to the mock.

The 2024 NFL Draft is underway! Read about all of the 2024 NFL Draft winners and losers for fantasy football as the draft unfolds!

2024 Mock Draft Methodology

In my opinion, many mock drafters strive for perfection.

Not me.

I want to be good enough.

In creating a mock, I’m not trying to match players with the teams that will draft them. At least I’m not trying to do it in a straightforward and precise way. I think that’s too hard and random.

Instead, here’s my process.

• Identify the 32 guys likeliest to go in Round 1.
• Order players correctly within their positions.
• Place players within their probable draft ranges.
• Match players/positions with reasonable teams.

This process might sound stupid or obvious, but I find it useful. It helps me avoid the situation of finishing a mock and then realizing I left out a necessary player simply because “I can’t find a place to put him.” Round 1 players belong in Round 1: That’s Rule No. 1.

Speaking of which, I have just four QBs and five WRs in this iteration. I’m not sure if that will be the case in my final mock, but I’m at least trying it out now.

QBs are regularly overmocked. I can see how we get five in Round 1. Most mocks lean in that direction. And six would tie the record set in the historic 1983 class.

But Michael Penix and Bo Nix look a lot like the type of QB who gets Round 1 hype but goes near the top of Round 2. I’m taking a stand and fading Penix and Nix.

As for WRs, this class is stacked, and I expect that depth to push pass catchers just a little down the board. Why draft a WR in Round 1 when you can address a thinner position in the top 32 and still get a quality WR on Day 2?

So at WR I’m slotting into Round 1 only the guys who absolutely must be in it.

Even so, I’m still putting an NFL-high 21 offensive players into Round 1. This is a great year for the side of the ball that matters. (Joking. Sort of.)

Here’s my updated mock.

2024 Mock Draft - Pick-by-Pick Breakdown

1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Williams goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past two months, and he’s at least -10000 to go No. 1 at every sportsbook.

I originally bet Williams No. 1 at -900 and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Pick via Panthers.

1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

People who say they know what will happen at No. 2 are lying. No one knows.

But I think it’s Daniels, whom I bet at +155. Last week, I had the opportunity to lock in a profit and bet Drake Maye at +200 across the industry, and I intentionally chose not to—because I think it will be Daniels, for a few reasons.

• Ben Standig of The Athletic is a sharp mocker and beat reporter for the Commanders. He has Daniels at No. 2.
• Adam Schefter of ESPN is as plugged into the league as anyone. He thinks the Commanders are trending toward Daniels.
• Peter Schrager of NFL Network is notably friendly with Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury, and he has Daniels at No. 2.
• From a football perspective, I think Daniels—with his elite dual-threat ability—fits Kingsbury’s offense just a little bit better than Maye. 

Nov 25, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) scrambles out the pocket against Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Malick Sylla (92) during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

At Circa (a sharp US sportsbook with industry-high $500 limits per draft bet), Daniels is a -150 favorite to be drafted ahead of Maye (+120).

The best price I see for Daniels No. 2 is -125 (Caesars), and I think those odds are fair. He has gone No. 2 in 72% of recent sharp mocks I’ve perused, and his -125 odds carry a 55.6% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator). 

1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

Maye’s draft stock has dropped since the season ended, but I don’t think there’s much wrong with him as a prospect: He had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing. He has sufficient size (6’4” and 223 lbs.). With two years of starting experience and good production, he’s not a one-year wonder. And he’s not geriatric (he’ll be 22 years old as a rookie).

The Patriots are lucky to get such a strong QB prospect at No. 3.

1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

The Cardinals could trade down (several teams might want to move up for a QB), but I’m relying on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”

Harrison is -550 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 WR … and that number might undersell his true odds if sharp mocks are representative of reality.

1.05 (Chargers): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

In previous versions, I had the Chargers and Vikings executing a trade in this spot: The Vikings would trade up to No. 5 for J.J. McCarthy, and the Chargers in exchange would get Nos. 11 & 23 so that they could address in Round 1 both WR and OT (their two largest positions of need).

But the Vikings might not need to trade up to No. 5 to get McCarthy, and trades are hard to predict, so I’m forcing the Chargers to stick in this spot, and No. 5 is too early for OT Joe Alt, who isn’t a great fit for HC Jim Harbaugh’s power-based offense anyway.

So I’m going with Nabers, who’s a strong option to be the No. 2 WR: He’ll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign, and he balled out with 89-1,569-14 receiving last season.

1.06 (Giants): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

The Giants go with a WR in 80% of sharp mocks, and Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88-second three-cone drill) with old-school prototypical size (6’3” and 212 lbs.).

In a less-stacked class, Odunze would have a good chance to be the No. 1 WR: He’s in the same tier with Harrison and Nabers.

1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

Alt at No. 7 is as chalky as it gets: His draft prop is 7.5 with strong juice to the under (-290, Caesars), and he’s -500 (bet365) to be the No. 1 OL.

He’s the first non-skill player taken in almost every mock.

1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)

Turner is losing some steam in the market: Three weeks ago he was -200 to be the No. 1 defender selected, and now he’s just +100 (Caesars). 

I bet him at -115 over a month ago and still like him at his current odds: His position-best athleticism (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 247 lbs.) makes him a desirable prospect with true playmaking potential.

1.09 (Bears): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State) 

The Bears would likely prefer Odunze in this spot to pair with Williams, but since he’s gone they must pivot to their backup plan, and Verse, with his outstanding athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6’4” and 254 lbs.), is the player most commonly mocked to the Bears after Odunze.

1.10 (Jets): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Before free agency, almost every mock went OL at No. 10, but then the Jets signed LT Tyron Smith and LG John Simpson and traded for RT Morgan Moses: With a rebuilt OL, the Jets should be able to protect QB Aaron Rodgers.

Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) attempts to make a catch against Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Trey Amos (9) during the second half in the SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

But they could still use an impact TE, and Bowers has a chance to be a Day 1 difference maker.

1.11 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

In reality, the Vikings might need to trade up for McCarthy. (Maybe they could get No. 9 from the Bears?)

But in this mock they stay at No. 11, let the board come to them, and are rewarded with the guy they hope will be the long-term replacement to former QB Kirk Cousins.

With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2” and 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated upside.

1.12 (Broncos): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

In previous versions, I had the Broncos selecting Bo Nix. I get why they would do it.

They need a QB, and Nix has a half-decade of high-end starting experience in college (Auburn, then Oregon), and last year he was No. 2 in the nation—just behind Daniels—with an 11.2 AY/A on the strength of 4,508 yards and 45 TDs passing to just three INTs.

But I don’t see him or Michael Penix as reasonable candidates for a pick this early in Round 1: They both have draft position props of 32.5 (DraftKings).

If the Broncos want a QB, they can get one later in the draft. 

So I’ll give them Latu, as the Broncos are desperately thin at EDGE. 

Latu could fall down the board due to good-but-not-great athleticism (4.64-second 40-yard dash at 6’5” and 259 lbs.) and legitimate injury concerns (he medically retired in 2021 because of a neck fusion).

But the 2023 Ted Hendricks Award winner and unanimous first-team All-American is probably the most NFL-ready pass rusher in the class (23.5 sacks in final two seasons). Based on talent, Latu belongs in the top half of the draft.

1.13 (Raiders): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Raiders lost RT Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency, and LT Kolton Miller has just two years left on his contract. 

Fashanu has the ability to start right away at RT and slide over to the blind side later in his career if Miller eventually leaves.

1.14 (Saints): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

With his outside/inside flexibility, Fuaga should be a plug-and-play Week 1 NFL contributor. He has a chance to challenge LT Trevor Penning, and he could be an immediate fill-in for RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee), whose future is uncertain due to long-term injury concerns.

1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

Perimeter CBs JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers are unproven for the Colts. They could use another body on the outside.

Mitchell was a combine winner with his elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’ and 195 lbs.), and he’s -125 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 CB.

1.16 (Seahawks): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

A three-year starter, Fautanu was the top dog on the unit that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, given annually to the top OL in college football.

Fautanu has the strength to challenge RT Abraham Lucas for the starting role and the positional flexibility to kick inside if needed. And it doesn’t hurt that he recently played for OC Ryan Grubb, who was his OC on the 2022-23 Washington teams.

The Seahawks could do almost anything with this pick. I can see them trading down or drafting DT Byron Murphy. But they need OL help, and Fautanu is the top OL available.

1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

Arnold disappointed at the combine (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6’ and 189 lbs.), but he can fall only so far down the board due to his ball production (five INTs in 2023), overall pedigree (first-team All-American at Alabama), and age (21 years old).

Arnold should immediately upgrade perimeter corner for the Jaguars.

1.18 (Bengals): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)

The Bengals signed RT Trent Brown, but he’s on just a one-year deal. Latham could start his NFL career inside before eventually kicking out right to his native position. 

1.19 (Rams): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)

It’s hard to know what the Rams will do: They haven’t had a pick in Round 1 at any point under HC Sean McVay.

But the Rams could certainly use a DL playmaker after the retirement of DT Aaron Donald, and Robinson flashed at the combine with his elite athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 254 lbs). 

1.20 (Steelers): OL Graham Barton (Duke)

The Steelers released C Mason Cole in February, and the versatile Barton has overtaken C Jackson Powers-Johnson as the top iOL in the class.

1.21 (Dolphins): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Dolphins lost DT Christian Wilkins in free agency and need a replacement. Murphy has three-down ability and impressed at the combine with his athleticism (4.87-second 40-yard dash at 6’1” and 297 lbs.).

1.22 (Eagles): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

DeJean can man up as an outside corner, but he also has the flexibility to play safety and slot.

Sep 30, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) scores a touchdown on a punt return as Michigan State Spartans linebacker Aaron Brule (7) pursues during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Perimeter CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both on the wrong side of 30, and slot CB Avonte Maddox was released earlier this offseason as a cap casualty before returning on a one-year deal.

DeJean gives the Eagles versatility and much-needed redundancy. 

1.23 (Vikings): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Vikings need more muscle for the interior DL of their 3-4 defense, and Newton (a 2023 first-team All-American) has the ability to step in as an immediate Day 1 contributor.

Pick via Browns and Texans.

1.24 (Cowboys): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

The five-star Mims has massive upside but little experience: That feels like the kind of player the Cowboys would take. A natural bookend complement to LT Tyler Smith, he could push RT Terence Steele to the interior or the sideline.

1.25 (Packers): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

LT Rasheed Walker is fine, but Guyton has a chance to be a franchise blindside protector. His size is beyond elite (6’8” and 322 lbs.).

1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri) 

The Buccaneers need a replacement to departed EDGE Shaquil Barrett, and Robinson’s size (6’5” and 285 pounds) gives him inside/outside versatility in HC Todd Bowles’ defense.

Robinson isn’t present in a supermajority of mocks, but he’s one of 13 prospects who will attend the draft in person, which gives him a good chance to go in Round 1.

1.27 (Cardinals): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

Wiggins is small (6’1” and 173 lbs.) but was the fastest DB at the combine (4.28-second 40-yard dash). 

The Cardinals need help all across the defense but perhaps most in the secondary.

Pick via Texans.

1.28 (Bills): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

The Bills lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis via trade and free agency this offseason: QB Josh Allen needs more help.

With his college production (68-1,177-17 receiving) and athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 209 lbs.), Thomas has long-term potential as a No. 1 WR.

The Bills are -240 (FanDuel) to select a WR with their first pick. (I bet them at +150.)

1.29 (Lions): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama) 

Even though the Lions have added CBs Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, both are on short-term deals, so the team would be wise to draft another corner.

McKinstry entered college as a five-star recruit, he started three years in the SEC, and he had 22 passes defended in his two final seasons.

With a strong pro day (he had a 4.47-second 40-yard dash despite running on a Jones fracture), McKinstry has pushed himself back into Round 1.

1.30 (Ravens): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)

Morgan is -115 (FanDuel) to go in Round 1, so this is the right range for him.

The Ravens traded away RT Morgan Moses this offseason, and Morgan (who started 37 games at Arizona) has the potential to replace him right away.  

If he doesn’t fit at RT, the Ravens can also kick Morgan inside given that they also lost LG John Simpson and RG Kevin Zeitler in free agency.

1.31 (49ers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)

If the 49ers had a better OL, they might be Super Bowl champions right now. 

Powers-Johnson—the 2023 Rimington Trophy winner and a unanimous first-team All-American—is probably an upgrade on C Jake Brendel and RG Jon Feliciano.

1.32 (Chiefs): WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

Despite adding WR Marquise Brown this offseason, the Chiefs could use another playmaker for QB Patrick Mahomes.

Enter Mitchell, who catapulted himself into Round 1 with a strong combine (4.34-second 40-yard dash at 6’2” and 205 lbs.).

Dec 2, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) carries the ball against Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Cam Smith (3) in the fourth quarter of the Big 12 Conference Championship game at AT&T Stadium. Texas won 49-21 to become 2023 Big 12 Conference Champions. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins/American-Statesman via USA TODAY NETWORK

While it’s tempting to slot WR Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs because of his combine-record speed (4.21 40-yard dash), Mitchell is a -190 favorite over Worthy (+150, DraftKings) in their head-to-head prop.

I expect Mitchell to go ahead of his Texas teammate.

Mock-to-Mock Movement

Here are players I’ve moved into and out of Round 1 since the previous version.

• Players Into Round 1: EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
• Players Out of Round 1: QB Bo Nix (Oregon)

Borderline Prospects

These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

• QBs Bo Nix (Oregon) & Michael Penix (Washington)
• WRs Xavier Worthy (Texas), Ladd McConkey (Georgia) & Xavier Legette (South Carolina)
• OT Kingsley Suamatia (Brigham Young)
• C Zach Frazier (West Virginia)
• DTs Braden Fiske (Florida State) & Kris Jenkins (Michigan)
• LB Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M)
• CB Kamari Lassiter (Georgia)
• S Tyler Nubin (Minnesota)