2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs Best Bets: Eastern and Western Conference Previews
The NHL playoffs have arrived.
The first round kicks off on Saturday with a late afternoon tilt between the Islanders and Hurricanes and an evening matchup between Toronto and Boston. The rest of the series will start between Sunday and Monday.
If you’re new to playoff hockey, first of all welcome, and second of all, strap in!
The first round of the NHL playoffs provides some of the most entertaining games (across any sport) we get all year and often loads of upsets (see Florida defeating Boston, who had just recorded the single-best regular season in hockey, last year).
I’ve included a short preview of all the series below and noted any series or futures bets I like for the first round and first slate of games. We’ll have more futures and daily bets in our NHL Bet Tracker and Underdog Pick’em Tracker as the playoffs roll on so make sure to bookmark those links and follow along.
You can also join in the FREE Fantasy and Betting Life Discord channel where picks are always being dropped into our free play channel.
**All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs Best Bets - Eastern Conference Preview
Hurricanes (-340) vs Islanders (+280)
The Islanders turned things around in a hurry down the stretch under new head coach Patrick Roy. They enter this series having won seven of their last eight games. They’ve been a far better defensive squad since Roy took over.
That said, the Canes are a beast and have the edge pretty much everywhere in this matchup. They were second in xGF% in the regular season at 5v5 (New York was 16th) and have the second-best power play in the league. The Islanders penalty-kill was ranked dead last.
There is a path for the Islanders who have a tradition of being a tough first-round opponent but they’ll need Seymon Varlamov to stand on his head and the Canes shooting to go ice cold.
The series line on Carolina is already quite short but if they get out to a lead this could be over quickly. Carolina -2.5 (+145; DraftKings) has some appeal as does Carolina to win game/win series, which is as big as -135 on DraftKings.
This is a series I’d like to see play out a little before diving into more game bets but with Carolina being great defensively and the Islanders' new defensive prowess, the under may be an appealing target most nights as well.
Best Bet: Carolina Hurricanes win game one / win series (double) (-135; DraftKings)
Bruins (-125) vs. Leafs (+105)
These teams are different in how they go about winning games, but also very equal in terms of stature.
Boston did sweep the series 4-0 this season but the first two games went to extra-time. Boston has elite special teams and a clear edge in net which may be enough to take down this first-round meeting, but they are certainly one of the more vulnerable favorites in the first round.
The problem with fading Boston is that you have to trust Toronto.
The Leafs may have the edge at 5v5 but they are going into the playoffs with no clear number-one goalie, without home-ice advantage, and on a four-game losing streak.
Neither of these teams was that great down the stretch – and the Leafs were very focused on Auston Matthews’ 70-goal chase – so the recent form isn’t a huge concern. Either way, this is a series where I view both teams as somewhat flawed and both will likely have trouble pulling away should they get a lead.
We’ve seen these two rivals go 6+ games on numerous occasions before and even at shorter odds, I think the over 5.5 games has appeal.
Best Bet: Leafs / Bruins over 5.5 games (-200; bet365)
Panthers (-180) vs Lightning (+150)
The battle for Florida was born after the Panthers won their final game and the Bruins faltered against Ottawa, knocking them down into second in the division.
Florida has had some injury issues of late but enters this series almost completely healthy, albeit with a couple of defensemen in Aaron Ekblad and Oliver Ekman-Larsson who did miss time down the stretch.
If they have a full complement of defenders the Panthers will be tough to score on, even for a team that is good at creating chances like Tampa Bay.
The Panthers allowed the fifth-fewest scoring chances against this season and had a vintage season out of Sergei Bobrovsky who landed six shutouts.
You should never count out of the Lightning in the playoffs until you’ve driven the final nail in the casket but they will need their stars to shine as bright as Haley’s Comet to take down the Panthers juggernaut. A more free-flowing series with lots of back-and-forth action likely favors Tampa Bay, who has the best power-play in the game, and I could see some higher-scoring games playing out in this series, especially if playoff Andrei Vasilevskiy doesn’t show up.
Given that the Lightning aren’t near as good defensively at limiting chances and allowed 3.3 goals per game this year (the highest mark of any playoff team) I think looking to hit some Panthers goal props (both for the series and by game) makes sense.
Best Bets:
- Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal game one (+190; DraftKings)
- Carter Verhaeghe most goals in the series (+900; DraftKings)
Rangers (-450) vs Capitals (+340)
The Rangers closed out their season with a win and with that final two points also took down the President’s trophy, which goes to the team with the most points in the regular season.
The last President’s Trophy winner to win the Stanley Cup was Chicago back in 2012-2013 and over the 37 years since the President’s Trophy has existed, the winner has gone on to win the Stanley on just eight occasions (21.6%).
I don’t say this to scare Rangers fans or even because I like the Capitals (I don’t) but it’s always good to temper expectations with big favorites in the first round.
That said, I don’t think we need to be fearful of betting the Rangers in round one.
The Capitals are not the Panthers (who upset the Bruins in seven games last year as the eighth-seed). Washington has a -37 goal differential on the season and that mark is the worst we have seen from a playoff team since before 2000.
The Rangers aren't perfect and they’ll have to figure out how to beat a goalie in Charlie Lindgren who showed a big ceiling at times down the stretch but the Rangers' Igor Shesterkin is no slouch himself and allowed just one goal in his last start against the Capitals this season.
The Rangers to finish this series in six or less opened at -160 on Fanduel but that number is no longer available so at this point I’d probably look to take a bigger swing and play the Rangers -2.5 (win in five games or less) at +138 instead.
Best Bet: Rangers to win series -2.5 (+138; FanDuel)
2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs Best Bets - Western Conference Preview
Stars (-140) vs. Golden Knights (+120)
As evidenced by this first series, the Western Conference this season feels like a complete crap shoot. You have the defending Stanley Cup champions, who loaded up at the deadline, going up against a Dallas Stars team that was the epitome of consistency in the regular season.
Despite the big moves at the deadline, the Golden Knights never really gelled that hard down the stretch. They did go 9-5-1 over their last 15 games but they also had some head-scratching losses, including a 4-1 beating at the hands of Anaheim in the final game of the season, where a win would have allowed them to match up with a team they beat last year in the playoffs in Edmonton.
That doesn’t mean we should count Vegas out. They have three legit scoring lines, insane depth on defense, and a goalie in Adin Hill who proved last year his ceiling is as good as anyone’s.
Feb 12, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Minnesota Wild during the third period at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
One piece of news to watch for Vegas surrounds winger Mark Stone (LTIR) who seems likely to make his way back to the lineup at some point in this series. Stone is the heart and soul of Vegas and if he is back on the ice and able to compete at anywhere near full capacity I would probably rate this series closer to a pick’em.
Interestingly enough there is a pretty large discrepancy between sportsbooks in terms of series odds so it does look like there is a lack of consensus in the market as to which team is the better side for betting.
The Stars are -140 on DraftKings but as big as -125 at bet365. Considering how good Dallas was down the stretch I might be swayed into making a small wager on them at that bigger price. I like Oettinger slightly better over Hill in net and it’s yet to be determined how healthy or effective Stone will be (if we see him at all).
If he does play, I also might look at playing over 5.5 games for the series, even at shorter odds.
While I lean toward Dallas, I think this series probably lives up to the hype and includes plenty of close games (with the potential for multiple OT games).
Best Bet: Stars to win series (-125, bet365) (if no Stone game one)
Canucks (-150) vs. Predators (+130)
The Canucks had a hot start to the season but did struggle at points down the stretch.
They did have some injury issues to contend with as early-season Vezina candidate Thatcher Demko was out for a prolonged period in the second half and they struggled against top-tier opponents without him; it's easy to see why.
They don’t have the top-end offensive firepower that most of the other top teams in the West do and rely more on a defensive-minded structure spearheaded by Head Coach Rick Tocchet.
Demko returned a couple of games ago and looked great in his first game against Calgary (39 saves on 40 shots) but didn’t look as good against the Jets on Thursday (three goals on 25 shots).
They’ll need him to be better because the Predators aren’t a team to be taken lightly. When you look at their lineup it’s easy to fall into a false sense of security because of the lack of scoring depth but their top-end talent is as good as anyone’s, outside of the Oilers and Avalanche, in the West.
The Predators scored just eight fewer goals than the Canucks this season and have winger Filip Forsberg who leads all forwards in goals scored in this series with 48.
Forsberg is coming off a career season and he’s backed up by the likes of Ryan O’Reilly and Roman Josi who provide plenty of experience and high-end scoring ability of their own.
The Predators were also extremely strong 5v5 down the stretch and even finished in front of Vancouver in xGF% this season. Vancouver will try to use their depth to grind down the Predators' top players but even if they are successful they’ll have to beat Jusse Saros. Saros may not be coming off the best season of his career but he’s capable of putting his mark on these playoffs at any point and has fewer question marks than Demko, who may not be 100% yet and is making his playoff debut.
If Demko is healthy and Vancouver can avoid the early playoff jitters they could dominate this series. But those are two x-factors I don’t think we can take for granted. I like backing the better top-end talent of Nashville for a first-round upset.
Best Bet: Predators to win series (+130, DraftKings)
Jets (+115) vs. Avalanche (-135)
The Jets have the home-ice advantage but are still rated as the underdog in this series.
Given that they are the only home team in the first round not to be rated as favorites they likely enter this seven-game tilt with a chip on their shoulder, and there may be a good reason for that.
The Jets have had a terrific season earmarked by a solid bounce-back year from Conner Hellebuyck who is locked in as the heavy favorite to win the Vezina. Hellebuyck provides a big advantage for the Jets over Alexandar Georgiev, who posted a sub .900 save % this season and lost his only playoff series as an Avalanche starter last year.
There is a lot of pressure on Georgiev and if he falters we may even see backup Justus Annunen get some work.
The talent of the Avalanche is undeniable but chemistry issues have reared their head at various points this season. They also face a very cohesive unit in Winnipeg, who undoubtedly are taking this first-round matchup as a challenge – and an opportunity to show the league they are for real.
Of all the series we have in the first round, if I had to pick one to go seven games, this would be it.
The Jets are for real and are backed not only by the best goalie in the league but a solid lineup with underrated scoring potential. The Avalanche are insanely tough to beat at home and carry the likely MVP in Nathan MacKinnon.
I do think this series has a chance to be higher scoring than it may seem on paper and the Avalanche were 25-16 to the over on the road this season.
I like taking the over in game one and also found some odds on a series goal prop for winger Nicholaj Ehlers that I think is worth taking. Ehlers is capable of getting insanely hot and is +3500 at DraftKings to lead the series in goals scored (but is +2200 or lower elsewhere). He makes sense as a longshot target, especially if you like the Jets.
Best Bets:
- Over 5.5 goals in Game 1 (-120; DraftKings)
- Nicholaj Ehlers +3500 most goals in series
Oilers (-190) vs. Kings (+160)
For the third year in a row, the Kings and Oilers will meet in the first round.
The Kings pushed Edmonton in both previous matchups (losing in seven games in 2022 and six in 2023) but face a much deeper and more seasoned Oilers squad this time around.
Stuart Skinner has had a full season as a starter and is unlikely to repeat his poor 2023 post-season and they also have a more capable backup than they did last season in Calvin Pickard. Meanwhile, names like Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have taken a step up and become more solid cornerstones on the backend.
If anything, the fact the Kings couldn’t pull off the upset in either of the past two seasons – against an imploding goalie in Skinner in 2023, and a much thinner squad in 2022 – should be a huge cause for concern.
The Kings are as solid 5v5 as they come but they lack finish and among playoff teams, and only the Islanders and Capitals scored fewer goals. They do have a very deep group of forwards but no one near the calibre of McDavid or Draisaitl.
I'm going to keep this one short and sweet. Both of these teams fired their coaches in-season but it's the Oilers who feel like the newly refurbished squad while the Kings still seem to be searching for their identity. The Kings need to limit McDavid.
On paper, they have names like Kopitar and Doughty who could theoretically help achieve that feat, but then again, we’ve also seen this team swing and miss twice in that endeavor now. I like Edmonton to complete the trifecta and potentially make short work of L.A. this time around.
Best Bet: Oilers -1.5 (+115; FanDuel)
