Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for SNF Week 5

It’s a battle of the birds on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. The Baltimore Ravens will travel to Atlanta to take on the red-hot Falcons. The Falcons have rattled off two straight wins, with their offense scoring at least 35 points in both games. Getting Michael Penix back at quarterback has given them a massive shot in the arm, and they’re currently tied for first place in the wide-open NFC South.

The Falcons are listed as 3.5-point favorites in this spot, largely due to the injury to Lamar Jackson. The Ravens will be without their starting QB for at least this week, leaving Tyler Huntley as the interim starting quarterback. It’s a clear downgrade for Baltimore, but Huntley did go 2-0 as the Ravens’ starting QB last season.

Let’s dive into all the betting metrics for this Week 5 Sunday Night Football matchup.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds For Week 5

• Spread: Falcons -3.5 (-104; Caesars)
• Moneyline: Falcons -175; Ravens +150
• Game Total: 43.5

The Falcons' offensive philosophy is pretty simple: Give the ball to Bijan Robinson and Drake London and let them do the rest. That has been more than enough to get past the Packers and Saints the past two weeks. Those two players accounted for a staggering 649 yards in those contests, with the rest of the roster chipping in just 270.

Robinson and London are two of the best skill-position players in football, but it remains to be seen if they can carry the Falcons against better opponents. The Packers defense has struggled without Micah Parsons this season, while the Saints are merely 30th in EPA per play defensively.

The Ravens aren’t quite as intimidating as in previous years on defense, but it still represents a step up in class for the Falcons. Baltimore is 10th in EPA per play defensively through four weeks, and they’ve held three of their first four opponents to less than 300 yards.

The Ravens’ defense is going to need to be good in this matchup because their offense will be significantly less explosive than usual. Going from Jackson to Huntley is a massive downgrade, and we saw the impact that losing Jackson had on this offense last year. Zay Flowers is also currently banged up, though he is expected to play through a questionable designation.
Getting the run going with Derrick Henry would be a big help, but that’s going to be easier said than done vs. Atlanta. They’re first in the league in EPA per rush defensively, and they’ve allowed an NFL-best 2.7 yards per carry through the first four weeks.

That said, the Falcons haven’t exactly faced a runner of Henry’s caliber to start the year. Their first four contests have been against the Steelers, Panthers, Packers and Saints, none of whom are particularly good at running the football. If the Ravens can establish Henry in this matchup, it will go a long way toward helping Huntley.

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Prediction & Pick For Falcons vs. Ravens Week 5 Matchup

• The Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-117; Caesars)

From my Week 5 Best Bets column:

“I wrote previously about one of my favorite NFL betting angles: backing good teams with backup quarterbacks. We did that successfully with the Seahawks in Week 2, and I’m going to employ the same strategy with the Ravens.

The gap from Jackson to Huntley is definitely greater than the dropoff from Sam Darnold to Drew Lock. The Seahawks’ offense didn’t really skip a beat with Lock under center, while the same can’t be said for the Ravens. Jackson is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in football, and without him, the Ravens aren’t the same caliber of team.

That said, the oddsmakers have moved the line eight full points to account for Jackson’s injury. They went from 4.5-point road favorites to 3.5-point underdogs, which feels like a bit too much. Before the start of the season, a group of oddsmakers listed Jackson as 5.89 points better than Huntley, so eight points is a bit of an overcorrection.”

We’ve started to see this line move back to Baltimore in recent days. They’re down to +3.0 across most of the industry, so I’m grabbing any +3.5 I can find while it’s still available.

Best Player Prop Bet For Falcons vs. Ravens

Devontez Walker Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-108; DraftKings)

As long as Flowers does suit up, Walker doesn’t figure to be a big part of the Ravens’ offense. He has eclipsed this figure in two of four games, but he’s done so on minimal opportunities. He has just a 5% target share for the year, and he hasn’t been above 7% in any one contest.

While Walker can pop off for a big play with Jackson under center, he may not be able to do the same with Huntley. He only needs one catch to clear this mark, but I think it’s more likely than not that he goes catchless.