Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 1

The Falcons and Steelers will square off Week 1 in a matchup between teams with very different expectations. The Steelers are looking to make it to the playoffs for the fourth straight year, but they’ll have to do it without Mike Tomlin at the helm.

Tomlin has been one of the best coaches in football over the past two decades, and Mike McCarthy will replace him for the upcoming season. It’s an interesting hire, reuniting McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers from their time together in Green Bay.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are just trying to survive. They have one of the bleakest QB situations in football, with Tua Tagovailoa nearly becoming the first guy to lose a position battle to himself. He’ll draw the start in Week 1, but he’s on an extremely short leash.

Let’s dive into the betting numbers this contest.

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds For Week 1

Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-104; FanDuel)
Moneyline: Steelers -160, Falcons +155
Game Total: 42.5

The big question for the Steelers is what their offense will look like with McCarthy at the helm. The failures on that side of the ball is the biggest reason why Tomlin was asked to leave. They’ve been a bottom 10 unit in terms of yards per game for seven straight years, including 25th in that metric last season.

That said, there may not be much that McCarthy can do. Aaron Rodgers is a shell of what he was in his prime. He clearly does not want to be hit at this point. While I don’t blame him for that – I certainly don’t want to be hit by a 300+ lbs defender – it’s hard to build an effective offense that way. No full-time starter in football got rid of the ball quicker than Rodgers last season, and none averaged fewer air yards per attempt.

The good news is that the offense at least has a bit more talent around Rodgers. They brought in Rico Dowdle and Michael Pittman this offseason, giving them two potential playmakers to lean on.

Conversely, there’s not much to get excited about with the Falcons. They do have some blue-chip talents in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and potentially Kyle Pitts, but that doesn’t matter if Tagovailoa is a disaster.

Additionally, the defense could be one of the worst in football. They were second in the league with 57 sacks last year, but they were led by James Pearce. He had 10.5 sacks, but he’ll miss the first eight games due to suspension. The pass rush could suffer without him, and the rest of the defense doesn’t seem good enough to make up for it.

Prediction & Pick For Falcons vs. Steelers Week 1 Matchup

The Pick: Steelers -3.5

Bettors have a special relationship with Mike Tomlin. He was undoubtedly one of the best in the business at covering the spread, posting a 163-140-6 mark as the team’s head coach. That makes him the seventh-most-profitable head coach since 2005.

But you know who is the second-most-profitable head coach over that time frame? That would be McCarthy. He owns a 157-125-6 ATS record since 2005, so he’s one of the few guys who can match Tomlin in that respect.

The way the two coaches have historically covered has been wildly different. Tomlin has historically excelled as an underdog, while McCarthy has crushed as a home favorite. McCarthy is 67-44-2 ATS in that split, so this is a spot where he has typically been at his best.

Of course, most of McCarthy’s wins as a head coach came with a prime Rodgers under center, so it’s fair to wonder if it’s still relevant. Perhaps the Steelers will disappoint overall this season, but I like them to start the year strong. If the Falcons can’t pressure the quarterback without Pearce, Rodgers should be able to keep the chains moving. Our NFL Game Model has the projected spread at -4.3, making this one of the biggest edges of the week.

Best Player Prop Bet For Falcons vs. Steelers

Rico Dowdle Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-112; DraftKings)

The Steelers are expected to employ a committee at running back this season, with Dowdle splitting touches with the incumbent Jaylen Warren. It’s similar to what they did last year, with Dowdle taking the place of Kenneth Gainwell.

However, Dowdle is a far different player than Gainwell. He’s not much of a receiver and is more of a between-the-tackles grinder. That means Warren will likely slide into the “Gainwell” role, while Dowdle should be the team’s preferred early-down option.

We currently have Dowdle projected for 12.8 attempts in this matchup, compared to just 9.4 for Warren. As a result, we have Dowdle projected for just under 55 rushing yards. The two running backs have nearly identical yardage props across the industry, and that feels like a mistake. Let’s take advantage with Dowdle in Week 1.