College Football Predictions for Week 1: Notre Dame to Light Up the Struggling Badgers

After sweeping the board in Week 0, we turn our attention toward Week 1's loaded slate with plenty of exciting games to groom through. Below is a breakdown of three matchups I'm looking to trade on prediction markets, including Sunday's highly anticipated matchup between Notre Dame and Wisconsin, with the Fighting Irish in a great position to light up the scoreboard.

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College Football Predictions for Week 1

Notre Dame Wins by Over 20.5 Points, Yes (49%, Kalshi)

Since the start of the offseason, Notre Dame has been labeled as one of the top contenders for the national championship, possessing a deep roster on both sides of the ball. Even with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price taking their talents to the NFL, the Fighting Irish are still loaded on offense, bringing back a majority of a core that posted top-25 marks in success rate while leading the league in explosiveness.

Notre Dame’s continuity will be on full display in the Week 1 matchup against Wisconsin by exploiting a defense that struggled to create disruptions at multiple levels of the field, ranking near dead last in havoc. With CJ Carr operating in a clean pocket, the quality of his throws will improve, making it easier to sustain drives down the field.

On the other side of the ball, the Badgers are scrambling for answers on offense, desperately needing to round back into form after finishing last season outside the top-100 in EPA and in finishing drives. With Notre Dame fielding a stalwart defense, Wisconsin will struggle to match their output, increasing the Fighting Irish’s chances of pulling away on the scoreboard.

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Michigan Over 38.5 Points Scored, No (57%, Kalshi)

With Kyle Whittingham in charge, all eyes are on Bryce Underwood, who severely underwhelmed in his freshmen campaign after entering the year ranked as the top QB in the recruiting class. With Underwood struggling to air out the ball, Michigan’s offense was anemic, residing in the bottom half of the board in pass play EPA and explosiveness.

While a matchup against Western Michigan looks favorable on paper, the Broncos quietly excelled at keeping their opponents out of the end zone, ranking 14th in defensive finishing drives. With key pieces anchoring their defense, any stalled out trip inside the red zone will swing the probability of Michigan staying under its team total, creating middle opportunities for us to trade as the game progresses.

Texas Over 44.5 Points Scored, Yes (51%, Kalshi)

After aggressively attacking the transfer portal, Texas is loaded on offense, giving Arch Manning all the tools he needs to succeed. Manning flashed his potential in the second half of 2025, throwing for over 250 yards in four out of his last five games. With Cam Coleman giving him a WR1 to lean on, the field will open up to the benefit of his other skill players, widening the width of his passing lanes in the process.

Heading into their matchup against Texas State, expect the Longhorns to fly down the field by exposing a defense that is incapable of holding them to early outs, bringing back a group that ranked in the bottom 20 in defensive hard stops. Place a wager on Texas to clear the over of 44.5 on the team total with intention of arbing it, should it cross through the key number of 49.