College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Oregon State vs. Boise State
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College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Oregon State vs. Boise State

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Oregon State vs. Boise State College Gameday Game of the Week, with betting picks, odds, predictions and a player prop bet.

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With New Mexico sitting comfortably behind in the latest college football rankings, the path for Boise State to make the playoffs is simple: Win and they’re in. With Oregon State on deck, the Broncos will have a great opportunity to inch closer to the CFP by taking advantage of a defense that struggles to hold opponents out of the red zone.

Here are my favorite college football betting angles for Oregon State vs. Boise State.

Oregon State vs. Boise State Betting Odds For Week 11

  • Spread: Boise State -14.5 (-108, Caesars)
  • Moneyline: Boise State (-600, DraftKings)
  • Game Total: 64.5 (Over -115/Under -105, Caesars)

Since nearly upsetting Oregon in Week 1, Boise State has been on a tear, rattling off eight wins in a row. That's an impressive feat for the Broncos, especially after handing the reins to backup QB Max Cutforth in Week 9 after Maddux Madsen went down with an injury.

Speaking of QB injuries, Oregon State recently listed Braden Atkinson as doubtful on the injury report, making him unlikely to play on Saturday. Replacing Atkinson is Maalik Murphy, a journeyman who has struggled with his accuracy, handicapping the Beavers' ceiling on offense.

Once the news regarding Atkinson’s availability broke, Boise State crossed through the key number of -14, settling at -14.5 with some sportsbooks touching -15.5. Even with Atkinson sitting out, bettors still believe College GameDay’s Game of the Week will be a barnburner, steaming the total up to 65.5 after opening at 62.5.

Nerd-Note.webp RELATED: Fantasy Life's NFL Betting Game Model provides bettors with projected spreads, totals and projected win percentage for the home team to help bettors accurately handicap all NFL games.

Prediction & Pick For Oregon State vs. Boise State Week 11 Matchup

  • The Pick: Boise State Team Total o40.5 (-110, Caesars)

Since the start of the regular season, Boise State has been a well-oiled machine on offense, entering Week 11 ranked in the top 15 in success rate, finishing drives and havoc allowed. While the Broncos are overly reliant on methodical drives to get inside the 20, the offense is able to brush aside a scoring lull by turning trips to the red zone into points on the board, averaging 4.93 points per opportunity.

Even if Madsen is unable to suit up, Cutforth will have a great opportunity to air it out by taking advantage of an Oregon State defense that ranks well below league average in havoc. With the Beavers' front seven struggling to generate pressure, the Broncos pass catchers will have more time in the open field to break away from their assignments, widening Cutforth’s passing lanes.

On the other side of the ball, negative regression is looming large over Oregon State’s offense with Atkinson unlikely to play, making it difficult to match Boise State’s output. Barring a sudden turnaround from Murphy, his inconsistencies in the pocket will allow the Broncos to shade a linebacker toward Jesse Legree to help neutralize the star WR without fear of the Beavers backup QB exploiting the gaps in coverage.

Every early out from Oregon State will get Boise State’s offense back on the field in quick order, leading to an uptick in the Broncos' total number of scoring opportunities to help clear the over on the team total. If the spread ticks back down to the key number of -14, diversify your risk by placing a separate wager on Boise State to cover the number as well.

Best Player Prop Bet For Oregon State vs. Boise State

Dylan Riley - o131.5 Rushing Yards (-115, theScore Bet)

To help ease the pressure on Cutforth, Dylan Riley has been able to consistently cut the distance to gain in half this season while averaging 6.7 yards per carry. With Riley in the backfield, the Broncos' ground game has been dominant, hovering near the top of the board in rush EPA per play and in PPA.

In a favorable matchup against Oregon State, Riley will be able to gash the Beavers by relentlessly attacking a front seven that ranks outside the top 90 in rush success rate. With Oregon State struggling to plug the gaps across the line of scrimmage, Riley will be able to consistently burst through the trenches and reach the second level of the defense, increasing his chances of creating an explosive run.

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