Houston Open 2024 Best Bets and Predictions

The Texas Children’s Houston Open is back on the PGA schedule after a year away, having moved from the fall to late March and just in front of the Masters. The Houston Open has had a few name changes of late and also underwent a venue change back in 2020, moving from the Golf Course at Houston to Memorial Park Golf Course, a public venue that was redesigned with help from Brooks Koepka directly before this event. 

The move has been successful for the most part, as Memorial Park has produced a couple of solid winners and challenged players with its longer, parkland setting. 

After last week’s event produced another shock winner in Peter Malnati (250-1) it will be interesting to see if the top names can bounce back on this tougher venue, which should favor the best tee-to-green players in the business. 

Some other quick notes about the event:

• It’s a 144-man field with the regular cut line taking place after Friday (65 players and ties).
• Scottie Scheffler is back in the field and the overwhelming favorite at +275 (see full odds below).
• This is the fourth season that players will tee it up on Memorial Park Golf Course, with the last event being held here in fall of 2022.
• The last three winners at Memorial Park have won at 13-under, 10-under and 16-under par.
• There are only two events before the year’s first major, and this week will mark the beginning of a mini two-week Texas swing (next week the event is in San Antonio).

Betting Odds for the Texas Children’s Houston Open

As we can see, Scottie Scheffler is back with a vengeance. With just 10 of the world’s top 50 golfers (OWGR) in the field, the odds on Scheffler are reminiscent of the kinds of numbers you would get on Tiger Woods in his prime. 

After Wyndham Clark, who is the clear and well-deserved second-favorite, there is a log jam of names between +2000 and +4000.  There are good cases to be made for a lot of those players, and if you are not betting Scheffler that’s where your main attention for this event should fall. 

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Texas Children’s Houston Open Course Preview

Memorial Park Golf Course — Houston, Texas

• Par 70, 7,412 yards
• Greens: Poa trivialis overseed
• Designer: John Bredemus (1936)
• Past winners:
  • 2022: Tony Finau +1600
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak +5000
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz +15000 

Memorial Park Golf Course has a lot of similarities to last week’s test. Like Copperhead, both venues play well over 7,300 yards and have winding, hard-to-hit fairways. While there is less water in play at Memorial, it’s also a longer test and challenges players a little more off the tee. Tony Finau won here in 2022 and led the field in most driving statistics. Despite the penal rough, it still played as a driver-heavy course, as driving distance for the week was over 295 yards and well above the PGA TOUR average.

Like Copperhead, the Bermuda at Memorial will be dormant, meaning the Poa overseed on and around the greens will like make things a little more difficult for the players. Memorial Park certainly doesn’t have as much sand as Copperhead does (there are only 19 traps on the course) but there are natural hazards and some water that comes into play that will punish overly inaccurate tee shots and approaches. 

Ultimately, Memorial is a tougher tee-to-green test that should create another long-jammed leaderboard like we saw on Sunday at the Valspar. The venue was designed with help from two-time US Open winner Brooks Koepka and it certainly gives out a US Open-style vibe with its emphasis on driving the ball well and being able to handle the thick rough from the fairways and around the greens. Good Drive% and strokes gained approach stats will be key, but players will need to putt well on the overseeded Poa greens as well. The last three winners have all gained over 6.0 strokes putting for the week. 

Stat notes:

• Strokes gained off the tee: Finau led the field in Good Drive % in 2022. This is a driver-heavy venue, giving an advantage this week to stronger drivers of the ball. 
• Strokes gained approach: Two of the three winners at Memorial have gained over 5.0 strokes on approach. Avoiding the penal rough around the green is a huge advantage this week. 
• Putting (Poa): Winners have spiked for big weeks putting. The date change means the greens will play differently than they did in 2022. Players with strong Poa putting splits, or Poa overseeded greens, should be noted.

Best Bets for the Texas Children's Houston Open

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well and I’ve included placing options for each name if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here. 

Si Woo Kim (FanDuel) 

• Outright (+3000)
• Top 10 (+250)

When you look strictly at the stats, there is a good case to be made for Si Woo Kim as a solid outright value. The South Korean finished a tidy T6 at the PLAYERS, an event where he finally saw his putter come to life, gaining 4.2 strokes on the greens at Sawgrass for the week. That’s significant because the greens at Houston are similar to Sawgrass in that they are also overseeded with Poa trivialis. 

Kim has also played well in Texas before. He was T4 at the Valero (TPC San Antonio) in 2019 and last season finished runner-up to Jason Day at TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson). Kim played Memorial Park back in 2022, and while he managed just a T35 finish his start there is eye-catching from the point-of-view that he led the field in strokes gained approach stats (+8.8). 

Si Woo Kim tees off on 11 of the Pete Dye Stadium Course during Round 3 of The American Express at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif., Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024.

Further, Kim’s driving in 2024 has been stellar, and Memorial Park demands good driving. In 2022, Tony Finau cruised to a four-shot win on the back of a week where he led the field in Good Drive% and Fairways Gained by decent margins (via Fantasy National).

Kim comes into this week ranked second in Good Drive%, third in Fairways Gained and is also ninth in Greens in Regulations gained over the last 24 rounds. In short, he’s hitting it as well as anyone not named Scottie Scheffler at the moment, and if his putter continues to shine like it did at Sawgrass, there is no reason he can’t rise up and challenge Scheffler in what is likely a bit of a lookahead spot for the 2022 Masters Champion. 

Keith Mitchell (BetMGM)

• Outright (+4000)
• Top 5 (+650)
• Each-way 1/4 top five (+3500, bet365)

Mitchell is another name who could easily be a bit lower in the odds this week. The American held a two-shot lead going into the final round of the Valspar last week but promptly imploded on Sunday, hitting a ton of wayward drives and missing short putts left and right. 

Still, it’s hard to argue that Mitchell’s game isn’t good enough to win right now. He’s second in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds (second only to Scheffler) and has gained over 8.0 strokes on approach  in two of his last four events. Obviously the around the green game and putting need to take a big tick up, but Mitchell has always been hot and cold as a putter. In 2021, after losing an incredible 12 strokes putting at the Valspar, he rebounded the next week by gaining 3.5 strokes putting and finishing T3 at the Wells Fargo. 

Ultimately, Mitchell’s incredible off-the-tee game should put him in a great spot on this longer par 70. While the greens didn’t tilt in his favor last week there’s no reason why he can’t find success in Houston on a course he finished T9 on in 2022, gaining 1.4 strokes putting on in the process. 

Kurt Kitayama (BetMGM)

• Outright (+5500)
• Top 10 (+375)
• Each-way 1/4 top five (+5500, bet365)

Much like Si Woo Kim, I don’t expect Kurt Kitayama to wilt if he finds himself in a heads-up duel with the world No. 1 this week. The American has won numerous times as a pro and faced down Scheffler and multiple other big names at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational to land his first PGA win. 

It’s been an up-and-down experience for Kitayama since then, but he has played solid golf to start 2024. Kitayama opened with a T24 at the Sony (shooting 62 in the second round) and then landed T8 and T19 finishes at the Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS. His last time out at Sawgrass was also his best start from a ball-striking standpoint as he gained 2.6 strokes OTT and 6.1 strokes ball-striking altogether. Kitayama is another player who can be very hot and cold with the putter, but if that club shows up for him this week he’s been hitting it well enough to challenge. 

At +5000 or longer, he certainly isn’t getting much respect in this field given many of the names below him in odds have either yet to win on the PGA or haven’t won in multiple seasons. 

Texas Children’s Houston Open Longshot Bets 

Parker Coody (bet365)

• Outright (+15000)
• Each-way 1/5 top eight (+11000)

With the Masters on the horizon and the top end of this field thinner on talent than it has been the last two weeks, it’s possible we see a younger star make his mark this week. Parker Coody is both a Texas native and a University of Texas grad who has flashed some solid form in spots. He posted a T25 at the Farmers in January (gaining 7.4 strokes ball-striking) and has made four of his last five cuts on the PGA. 

January 12, 2024; Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; Parker Coody hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the second round of the Sony Open in Hawaii golf tournament at Waialae Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Last week’s T67 may not jump off the page, but the 4.3 strokes on approach he gained does. In a year where we have seen PGA winners like Nick Dunlop, Austin Eckroat and Jake Knapp, seeing a name like Coody — who has great pedigree and does have two pro wins already — come up big wouldn’t be overly shocking. 

Jhonattan Vegas (bet365)

• Outright (+2500)
• Each-way 1/5 top eight (+20000)

Given the upside we have seen from some of PGA’s esteemed veterans this year (Nick Taylor, Brice Garnett, Peter Malnati), I don’t have an issue taking a small piece of the three-time PGA winner Jhonattan Vegas in the outright department at huge odds. Vegas is getting up there in age (39) but still hits it as far as anyone on TOUR and has been gaining multiple strokes off the tee nearly every week. 

While the results haven’t quite been there for Vegas in 2024, he was T22 at Phoenix in February and certainly is the type of golfer we’ve seen have success at Memorial Park to date. He finished T26 at this venue in 2021 and it’s worth noting that he’s no stranger to posting big results with no form, as his last PGA win came in 2017 off a string of five missed cuts.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Matchup bets

Thomas Detry -120 over Davis Thompson (DraftKings) 

Thompson has really regressed after a solid start. He’s missed two cuts in a row and his around-the-green and off-the-tee game have both been bleeding strokes. Detry has been a solid cut-maker on the PGA and last week gained 4.7 strokes ball-striking. He’s also a high-end putter, and the flat-stick is a club that could easily carry him to a decent finish this week if his ball-striking stays near or at the levels we saw from him at the Valspar.

Si Woo Kim -118 over Alex Noren (FanDuel)

I like the way both of these players set up for Houston but you have to give the edge to younger Kim, who is hitting it better than Noren and also has more length than the Swede at this point in their careers. I made the case for Kim already but would rate him as a larger favorite than is currently listed in this matchup, making him a nice value target this week.