Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 1
Betting

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 1

Matt LaMarca breaks down the Miami Dolphins versus Las Vegas Raiders matchup from a betting perspective with predictions, picks and prop bets.

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NFL football is back, and we have 16 games to choose from in Week 1. This is certainly… one of them. While it might not be the most exciting game on the slate, any football is good football after a roughly seven-month hiatus.

Neither the Dolphins nor Raiders are expected to contend for much this season, outside of potentially the No. 1 pick. The Raiders are at the start of a rebuild after drafting Fernando Mendonza first overall in 2026, while the Dolphins are still in the process of tearing things down. They have more than $100M in dead cap this season, with seven of their eight highest-paid players not suiting up for them.

Let’s dive into the betting numbers for Dolphins-Raiders.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds For Week 1

  • Spread: Raiders -3 (-110; Caesars)
  • Moneyline: Raiders -166, Dolphins +155
  • Game Total: 40.5

While Mendoza might be the future for the Raiders, Kirk Cousins is still the present. He’ll draw the start at quarterback in Week 1, and if he plays well, it’s possible we don’t see Mendoza for quite some time.

The good news for Mendoza is that the odds of Cousins playing well are slim. He has not been the same caliber of quarterback over the past two seasons. He averaged just 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt in his first year with the Falcons, and he dipped to just 6.3 last year.

Making matters worse, Cousins has arguably the worst receiving corps in football at his disposal. Brock Bowers does help negate that weakness… but only if he’s actually in the lineup. He underwent a “meniscus trim” on Tuesday, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that he’s expected to miss a game or two. Michael Mayer is one of the best No. 2 TEs in football, but that’s a huge blow for the Raiders’ offense.

The Dolphins will also have a new quarterback this season. They signed Malik Willis in free agency, and Willis has completely resuscitated his stock after flaming out in Tennessee. He fared extremely well as the backup in Green Bay, which has earned him another chance as a starter.

If the Raiders don’t have the worst receiving corps in the league, it’s probably the Dolphins. They’re expected to start two rookie third-rounders in Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, along with Greg Dulcich at tight end. That’s not scaring anyone.

However, the ground game could be big for Miami. They have elite speed in the backfield with Willis and De’Von Achane, with both guys capable of ripping off yards in bunches. Unfortunately, that aligns with the Raiders’ strength on defense, which ranked seventh in EPA per rush last year.

Prediction & Pick For Dolphins vs. Raiders Week 1 Matchup

  • The Pick: Dolphins +3.0 (-102; FanDuel)

This line has dropped half a point with the news that Bowers won’t suit up. The Raiders were listed as 3.5-point favorites with him, but they’re down to just 3.0 currently. While pass-catchers aren’t traditionally worth a ton in terms of spread value, Bowers could be an exception. He was expected to do so much heavy lifting for their passing attack that it’s hard to imagine them succeeding without him.

Ultimately, when two bad teams square off, I’m typically just going to take the points. Are they worse than the Raiders in a vacuum? Probably, though I’m not so sure with Bowers out and Ashton Jeanty potentially limited. Even so, do the Raiders deserve to be 3.0-point favorites against anyone? Probably not.

I don’t plan on watching much of this game outside of what pops up on RedZone. But as far as betting value? I think the Dolphins are a pretty solid target.

Best Player Prop Bet For Dolphins vs. Raiders

Ashton Jeanty Under 15.5 Carries (-130; FanDuel)

There was a lot of buzz surrounding Jeanty this offseason. The Raiders upgraded their offensive line, so the No. 6 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft seemed poised to take off.

Unfortunately, Jeanty faces a bit of adversity in Week 1. He is practicing in full for Week 1, so he is on track to at least be in the lineup. However, there’s no guarantee that he’s at 100%. It’s possible that the team takes it easy on him after missing the few weeks of training camp.

The bigger concern is the emergence of Mike Washington. The rookie RB absolutely tore up the preseason, and he has reportedly forced his way into the Raiders’ plans. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport recently reported that Washington is “going to be a thing this year,” and ESPN’s Ryan McFadden said Washington “has changed the staff’s perspective of the running back room.”

This probably won’t be a true committee, but Jeanty faces far more competition than he did from any of the Raiders’ other RBs last season. Fifteen carries or fewer feels like a pretty reasonable projection; we have him at 14.4.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Kirk Cousins
    KirkCousins
    QBLVLV
    PPG
    10.5
    Proj
    12.4
  2. FernandoMendoza
    QBLVLV
  3. AshtonJeanty
    RBLVLV
    PPG
    12.7
    Proj
    12.9
  4. Malik Willis
    MalikWillis
    QBMIAMIA
    PPG
    12.3
    Proj
    15.8

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