MLB Bets Today - Bets for Friday, April 12
Thursday did not quite go our way.
Hunter Brown did not show any progression vs. the Royals, while the bullpens let us down in Orioles-Red Sox. That game was 3-2 entering the bottom of the eighth inning, so we were unlucky to see that game go into extra innings (where the Orioles proceeded to score six runs).
The good news is that Friday brings about a whole new slate of games. That’s the best part about baseball – regardless of how things went yesterday, there’s always hope around the corner. It’s a long season, and we’re playing the long game.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for Friday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Friday, April 12
Minnesota Twins ML at Detroit Tigers (+105; FanDuel)
Friday’s matchup between the Twins and Tigers features one of the best pitching matchups of the day. Jorge Lopez will get the ball for the Twins, while Tarik Skubal will take the mound for the Tigers. Both pitchers have sub-3.00 ERAs to start the 2024 season, and both pitchers were excellent in 2023 as well.
However, I give the edge to Lopez in this matchup. Skubal has had some concerning velocity drops in his recent starts, which has resulted in decreased numbers as he progresses through the game. Opposing batters have managed an OPS above 1.500 when facing Skubal for the third time through the lineup, so his ability to go deep into the game vs. the Twins is a major question mark.
Meanwhile, Lopez remains one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. He was fifth in Pitching+ among qualified starters in 2023, combining Stuff+ and Location+. His stuff isn’t quite as filthy as some of the other top starters in baseball, but how he can control his pitches makes him a nightmare for opposing hitters.
He should have no problems shutting down the Tigers, who were merely 27th in wRC+ against right-handers in 2023. They’ve been a bit better this season (16th), but they’re not an offense you need to fear. The Twins have hit lefties better than the Tigers have hit righties, so I like them as small dogs in this spot.
New York Mets ML vs. Kansas City Royals (-135; BetMGM)
The Royals have been one of the biggest surprises of the early year, jumping out to a 9-4 record. Bobby Witt Jr. is looking like an MVP candidate, and he’s propelled the offense to the seventh-most runs per game. They’re first in the league in run differential, so they seem like legitimate threats for a postseason berth.
That said, the Mets have quietly turned things around after a disastrous start to the year. They’ve won two straight series, taking two of three games on the road vs. the Reds and Braves.
Their pitching has been a bright spot, with the Mets’ starters currently ranking near the top of the NL in terms of ERA. They’ll have one of their best starters on the bump Friday in Luis Severino. Sevy has looked like the player he was in his prime through his first two outings, racking up an 11.7 K/9 and a 2.52 FIP.
The Royals will have a competent starter on the bump as well, but Michael Wacha has been fortunate through his first two starts. He has just a .154 BABIP, which makes him a prime candidate for regression.
The Mets are a preferred target for the sharps on Friday, and I’m willing to tag along at -135.
More MLB Bets for Friday, April 12
A’s ML vs. Nationals (-130) – Are the A’s… maybe not that terrible? That remains to be seen, but I like their chances vs. the Nationals on Friday. They’ll have a big pitching edge with Paul Blackburn on the mound, who has yet to allow an earned run through 13 innings this season. The Nationals are just as bad as the A’s offensively, and they’ll have a far worse pitcher on the bump in Jake Irvin.
Brewers F5 ML at Orioles (-104) – I’m going to continue to ride the Brew Crew, especially when Freddy Peralta is on the mound. Peralta has been brilliant to start the year, while Orioles starter Tyler Wells has a 6.52 xERA through his first two outings.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140) – Yamamoto’s MLB career got off to a rocky start, but he’s settled in nicely since then. He’s pitched five scoreless innings in back-to-back starts, and he’s had at least five punchouts in both. That includes an eight-strikeout performance in his last outing. The Paydirt DFS simulations give Yamamoto an 88.7% chance of going over 4.5 Ks vs. the Padres on Friday.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 0-4 (-2.21 units)
- Season: 26-23 (-0.87 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
