MLB Bets Today - Picks For Friday, May 3rd
Like most baseball players, I clearly don’t like the cold. We slumped through April, but we’ve started to turn things around in May. We’re 7-1-1 through the first two days of the month, so let’s hope this is the start of a heater.
After a small slate on Thursday, the MLB is back in full swing on Friday. All 30 teams are slated to take the field, and the weather conditions look pretty favorable overall. In other words, there are lots of opportunities for us to keep the hot streak rolling.
Let’s dive into my favorite wagers for Friday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Friday, May 3
Brewers at Cubs Under 7.5 runs (+100; Caesars)
Whenever the Cubs are playing at home, one of the first things I do is check the weather report. Wrigley Field is extremely susceptible to the wind conditions. Scoring tends to be way up when the wind is blowing out and way down when it’s blowing in, and the weather conditions look favorable for pitching on Friday. The current forecast calls for a 10-mile-per-hour wind blowing in from left field, so it’s going to be difficult for righties to hit the ball out of the stadium.
From a pitching perspective, the Cubs are going with Hayden Wesneski, who owns a 0.87 ERA and 1.45 xERA this season. Most of that has come out of the bullpen, but he’s pitched 4.0 innings in two of his three appearances.
Joe Ross owns a 5.40 ERA for the Brewers, but his xERA is nearly two full runs lower at 3.51. Overall, these are two pitchers who have been successful this season. Add in the wind, and the under is worth a play.
Los Angeles Dodgers ML vs. Atlanta Braves (-118; FanDuel)
We’ve got a heavyweight battle in Los Angeles this weekend. The Dodgers will host the Braves in a potential NLCS preview. Granted, we’ve felt these two teams were destined for a playoff showdown in each of the past two seasons, but it’s yet to materialize. Maybe 2024 will be the year that changes.
So far this season, these squads have lived up to the hype. The Dodgers are first in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handers, while the Braves aren’t far behind in fifth. Both teams will have right-handed starters on the bump on Friday, with the Dodgers opting for Gavin Stone and the Braves going with Charlie Morton.
On the surface, the Braves seem to have the pitching edge. Morton has been an above-average starter for years, and he has a better ERA than Stone so far this season. That said, Morton’s numbers are not the same as in years past, particularly from a strikeout perspective. His K/9 is down to 8.40, while his Chase and Whiff rates are below the 40th percentile. At 40-years-old, Morton’s best days seem behind him.
Against a potent Dodgers lineup, this could be a spot where regression catches up with Morton. I like the Dodgers up to -125.
More MLB Bets for Friday, May 3
Rangers ML at Royals (+100)
The Rangers will square off with Brady Singer on Friday, who has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this season. His ERA currently sits at 2.62, but his xERA and FIP are closer to four. He’s survived due to a .209 BABIP and an 86.0% strand rate, both of which are well above projected. A matchup with the Rangers’ offense could serve as a rude wake-up call.
Giants F5 ML at Phillies (+145)
Jordan Hicks has exceeded even the loftiest expectations in his transition to the rotation in 2024. He owns a 1.59 ERA and a 2.49 xERA through his first six starts, and he’s allowed one run or fewer in all but one outing. Conversely, Aaron Nola has not been as sharp as usual for the Phillies, and his FIP currently sits at 4.46. I’ll take my chances with Hicks and the Giants over the first five innings.
Mariners F5 ML at Astros (+100)
Ronel Blanco has been brilliant for the Astros this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he can’t keep it up forever. His .173 BABIP is particularly unsustainable, and he’s also struggled with walks at times. George Kirby doesn’t have the same ERA as Blanco, but he’s the superior pitcher in terms of pitch modeling. He’s fourth in Pitching+ among 93 starters with at least 30 innings, while Blanco is merely 85th. That makes the Mariners a nice value in the first five innings market.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 3-1 (+1.0 units)
- Season: 65-62-4 (-3.92 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
