Table of Contents
  1. MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, May 5
  2. More MLB Bets for Sunday, May 5
  3. 2024 MLB Bets Record

It’s Sunday, which means it’s officially an early start for baseball. The action starts with a 10-game early slate, followed by four mid-afternoon contests. Sunday Night Baseball features the Giants and the Phillies, with the Phillies looking to wrap up a three-game sweep.

With that in mind, make sure to get your plays locked in early. Here are a few of my favorite options for Sunday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, May 5

Seattle Mariners ML at Houston Astros (+102; DraftKings)

The theme of today’s picks is fading exploitable starters with small underdogs. That starts with the Mariners, who are taking on right-hander Hunter Brown. Brown was a big-time prospect, but he struggled to a 5.09 ERA in his first year in the big leagues. Things have been even worse for Brown this season, slumping to a 9.78 ERA and a 5.70 FIP. Brown is likely due for some improvement, but it’s not hard to improve when your ERA is nearly double-figures.

Bryce Miller will get the ball for the Mariners, and he’s been better than Brown in nearly all regards. He owns a 2.04 ERA, and he remains well above average in terms of Stuff+.

The Astros have been streaking recently, but I’ll take my chances with the Mariners in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels ML at Cleveland Guardians (+114; FanDuel)

This time, we’re fading Carlos Carrasco. He was once an excellent starter, but that was many years and injuries ago. He owns a 6.59 ERA and a 5.81 FIP, and he’s struggled in almost every area of pitching. Walks? 4.94 per nine innings. Homers? 1.65 per nine. Carrasco also ranks in the 26th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, so he doesn’t have many ways to get batters out.

Griffin Canning hasn’t been much better for the Angels, but he at least had some decent numbers last year. The Guardians are the better offensive team, but it’s tough to pass up fading Carrasco at better than even money.

More MLB Bets for Sunday, May 5

Brewers-Cubs Under 6.5 runs (-105)

This is a ridiculously low total, but it’s still worth taking on Sunday. Not only is the pitching matchup elite – Freddy Peralta vs. Javier Assad – but the weather conditions are extremely favorable for pitchers. It’s expected to be in the mid-50s at game time, with the wind blowing in hard from centerfield. We’ve already cashed a few “wind unders” at Wrigley this season, and I’m looking to go right back to the well on Sunday.

Braves ML at Dodgers (-126)

The Dodgers have handled the Braves in the first two games of this series, but I’ll take my chances with them on Sunday. James Paxton has been extremely fortunate for the Dodgers, with his 6.16 xERA severely higher than his 3.51 actual mark. Things have worked in the opposite direction for Max Fried – 2.93 xERA, 4.02 actual – so this feels like an excellent buy-low opportunity.

Phillies-Giants F5 Under 4.0 (-115)

I’m continuing to trust in the Phillies’ pitching staff. Taijuan Walker was roughed up in his first outing, but he has historically been a solid starter. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb, who remains one of the best pitchers in baseball. Overall, runs should be at a premium in the early innings.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-3 w/ two pending (-0.625 units)
  • Season: 70-65-4 (-4.05 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca has worked full-time in the sports betting and DFS industry since 2018, with his work appearing on sites like The Action Network, DraftKings, Awesemo, and Props.com. He has a proven record as a bettor thanks to his analytic approach focused on line movement, public betting percentages, and trends. He specializes in the NFL and NBA sides, but he’s also had success in MLB, college football, and the player prop market. Matt is also an avid Mets fan who hopes to be alive for the team’s next World Series, whenever that may be.
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