It’s a relatively quiet day in the world of sports. The NBA will take a break from the play-in tournament before picking things back up on Friday. The NHL slate is on the smaller side, while the PGA provides a bit of a letdown after the Masters last week.

Fortunately, we still have baseball.

It’s a small baseball slate as well, but there are games in the afternoon and evening to keep our attention. Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today - Bets For Thursday, April 18

Miami Marlins-Chicago Cubs Under 8.0 runs (-115; BetMGM)

The Marlins and Cubs have both been “over” teams so far this season. The Cubs have been great on the offensive end, averaging the fourth-most runs per game, while the Marlins have been a disaster on the bump. They’ve allowed 5.53 runs per game, and only the Rockies have been worse this season.

So why look towards the under in this matchup? It all comes down to the weather. The current forecast calls for wins blowing in hard from left field, which should help mitigate scoring. When the winds at Wrigley are blowing in, the under has gone 283-190-25 since 2005 (per the Action Network). That’s good for a +15.0% return on investment, making it an extremely profitable spot for bettors to target.

If A.J. Puk and Jameson Taillon allow the batters to put the ball in play, the weather should keep this game under 8.0 runs. This total is already down to 7.5 at FanDuel, so grab an eight while you still can.

Arizona Diamondbacks ML at San Francisco Giants (+144; FanDuel)

Thursday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Giants features one of the more intriguing pitching matchups of the day. The Giants will send Logan Webb to the bump, who has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past few seasons. He’s pitched to a 3.25 ERA or better in three straight years, and he was second in NL Cy Young voting in 2023.

However, Webb has taken a bit of a step back in 2024. His traditional ERA doesn’t look terrible (3.80), but his 5.20 xERA is alarming. His strikeout rate is down more than five percent compared to last year, and his .326 expected batting average puts him in the bottom sixth percentile for MLB pitchers.

Ryne Nelson will get the ball for the Diamondbacks, and he’s someone whose advanced metrics are significantly better than his actual marks. His xERA and FIP are more than a run lower than his ERA, and his Stuff+ is extremely impressive. He has four pitches that grade out as above average, so he’s a progression candidate moving forward.

Add it all up, and the Diamondbacks are strong underdogs to target at +144. I’d play them down to +135.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, April 18

Tigers ML vs. Rangers (-108) – The big news in this matchup is that Jack Leiter will make his MLB debut for the Rangers. The former No. 2 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft entered the league with a lot of fanfare, but he’s struggled in the minor leagues. He’s had an ERA above 5.00 at each stop in the minor leagues, so I’m not sure he’s ready for primetime. I’ll take my chances with the Tigers.

Guardians-Red Sox Under 9.0 runs (-110) – Carlos Carrasco has turned back the clock for the Guardians this season, posting a 3.55 ERA, 3.65 xERA, and 3.83 FIP through his first three outings. The sharps have been all over the under in this matchup, which has received more than 80% of the bets and dollars.

A.J. Puk Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130) – Puk has been a disaster after transitioning from the bullpen to the starting rotation this season, but I’m not giving up hope yet. He had elite strikeout stuff in years past, and the weather conditions should help him vs. Chicago. If he can keep the ball in the strike zone – a huge concern – he should stick around long enough to get to five punchouts.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.865 units)
  • Season: 39-33-2 (-0.67 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.

Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca has worked full-time in the sports betting and DFS industry since 2018, with his work appearing on sites like The Action Network, DraftKings, Awesemo, and Props.com. He has a proven record as a bettor thanks to his analytic approach focused on line movement, public betting percentages, and trends. He specializes in the NFL and NBA sides, but he’s also had success in MLB, college football, and the player prop market. Matt is also an avid Mets fan who hopes to be alive for the team’s next World Series, whenever that may be.
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