MLB Bets Today - Picks For Tuesday, April 16
We have another full slate of baseball action on Tuesday, with all 30 teams scheduled to take the field. Only one of those contests starts before 6:35 p.m. ET, so we have a really nice main slate to choose from.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite options, starting with a nice underdog.
MLB Bets Today - Bets For Tuesday, April 16
Minnesota Twins ML at Baltimore Orioles (+140; FanDuel)
The Orioles are currently sitting at 10-6, and they’ll have an exciting young prospect on the mound Tuesday in Grayson Rodriguez. He was once considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, and he ranked No. 16 per FanGraphs heading into last season. Rodriguez struggled to find consistency at the MLB level, but his overall numbers were respectable: 4.35 ERA, 4.21 xERA, 3.95 FIP.
Rodriguez appears to have taken a step forward in 2024, pitching to a 2.50 ERA through his first three starts. That said, those numbers don’t tell the full story. Rodriguez has been fortunate, with his 95.2% strand rate standing out as a significant outlier. His xERA and FIP are both closer to his marks from last year than his current ERA, so he’s a regression candidate moving forward.
The sharps have been all over the Twins in this spot, driving this number down from +150 to as low as +130 at some locations. We can still grab a +140 on FanDuel, and I think that’s a strong number to target.
Oakland Athletics ML vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+124; DraftKings)
The A’s are another underdog worth considering on Tuesday. On paper, they’ll be at a pitching disadvantage in this contest. J.P. Sears has a 5.17 ERA so far this season, while Lance Lynn has a 2.63 mark.
Still, I’m taking Sears over Lynn 10 times out of 10.
From a stuff perspective, Sears clears Lynn pretty comfortably. He’s sitting at 107 in terms of Stuff+, while Lynn is down to just 85 with the Cardinals. Sears also grades out favorably in terms of Location+, so I’m expecting progression from him moving forward.
The same can’t be said for Lynn. Lynn’s xERA and FIP are nearly two full runs higher than his actual ERA, so he’s been fortunate to start the year.
Neither of these offenses have been impressive, so I’m happy to grab the team with the superior pitcher at plus money.
More MLB Bets for Tuesday, April 16
Diamondbacks ML vs. Cubs (-130) – I’m looking to fade Kyle Hendricks any time I can do so at a reasonable price, and -130 certainly qualifies. Hendricks has been rocked to start the year, posting a 12.08 ERA, 7.95 xERA, and 8.04 FIP.
Yankees-Blue Jays F5 Under 4.5 (-125) – This contest features a solid pitching matchup between Yusei Kikuchi and Carlos Rodon, who have both pitched to sub-3.00 ERAs to start the year. Kikuchi’s advanced metrics are just as impressive – 2.73 xERA, 2.84 FIP – while Rodon ranks 14th in Stuff+ among all pitchers with at least 10 innings. Runs should be at a premium.
Jared Jones Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125) – Jones has burst onto the scene as a rookie, displaying some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in all of baseball. He’s racked up 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and he’s had at least seven strikeouts in all three of his starts. The Mets are a tough matchup from a strikeout perspective, but there aren’t many comparables to Jones. The Paydirt DFS simulations have Jones going over 6.5 just shy of 70% of the time, so he’s worth a look at +125.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.695 units)
- Season: 34-28-2 (-0.43 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
