MLB Bets Today - Picks For Wednesday, April 24th
Wednesday is typically a good day for baseball, and this Wednesday is no exception. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with a few afternoon contests sprinkled in and a large evening slate. The weather report also looks good across the board, so we’re likely looking at a full complement of contests.
Let’s dive into a few of my top options for Wednesday’s 15-game slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, April 24
Astros-Cubs Under 8.0 runs (-110; BetMGM)
While the weather isn’t expected to result in any delays or postponements, that doesn’t mean it won’t have an impact. The wind can still play a part, especially in a stadium like Wrigley Field.
Wrigley is set up in a way that makes it extremely sensitive to winds. When the wind is blowing out, home runs tend to fly out of the ballpark at a rate unlike any other stadium in baseball. When it’s blowing in, it suppresses runs to the same degree.
We’re looking at a wind-blowing-in game on Wednesday, with winds blowing in at greater than 10 miles per hour from left field. Per the Action Network, the under has gone 285-191-26 in games with comparable wind conditions and a total of at least eight runs.
Ultimately, when the conditions look like this, it doesn’t really matter who is pitching and which team they’re facing; the under is always going to be the play.
Phillies-Reds F5 Under 4.0 runs (+100; BetMGM)
You don’t typically think “pitcher’s duel” with the Phillies and Reds, especially when that game is being played in the Great American Ballpark. That said, both teams have a starter that should be able to keep the runs to a minimum.
The Phillies will turn to Spencer Turnbull, who has been a favorite of mine to start the year. He’s been outstanding through his first four starts, posting a 1.23 ERA, 2.95 xERA, and 2.84 FIP. He’s definitely been a bit fortunate – his .184 BABIP is due for some regression – but he’s a much better pitcher than his preseason projections suggest.
On the other side, Nick Lodolo will get the ball for the Reds. Lodolo missed most of last year with a leg injury, but he’s been extremely effective for most of his big league career. He picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 0.75 ERA and 12.0 K/9 through his first two starts.
With Bryce Harper still on the paternity list, the Phillies’ offense won’t be as potent as usual, either. I prefer the first five under at 4.0 (+100), but you can look to the full game under as well.
More MLB Bets for Wednesday, April 24
Twins -1.5 runs vs. White Sox (+115)
I rarely play the run line, but I’m making an exception here. The White Sox have been a disaster this season, and I’m expecting no different on Wednesday. Their offense has averaged an abysmal 2.17 runs per game, and they’ll face a brutal matchup vs. Joe Ryan. The Twins will square off with Garrett Crochet, who has surrendered at least five runs in back-to-back outings. They should be able to win this contest by at least two runs.
Mariners ML at Rangers (+104)
The Mariners have started to heat up, winning six of their past seven games. I like their edge on the mound in this contest, with Bryce Miller squaring off with Jon Gray. Gray’s xERA for the year sits at just 5.90, thanks to a barrel rate that puts him in the third percentile. Opposing batters have an xSLG of .520 against Gray this season, so the Mariners should be able to stay hot.
Joe Boyle Under 5.5 strikeouts (-166)
Boyle isn’t an awful strikeout pitcher, but he’s also not a strikeout maven. He’s posted a 20.9% strikeout rate this season, while his chase rate ranks in the first percentile. Boyle has gone over 5.5 punchouts in just one of four starts, while the Yankees have been one of the tougher teams for righties to strike out. I’d play this up to -180.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.80 units)
- Season: 47-47-3 (-4.22 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
