NFL Parlay Picks for Week 1: Bet on the Underdog Bucs
Betting

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 1: Bet on the Underdog Bucs

Matt LaMarca shares his four-leg parlay play for Week 1 of the NFL season, including a moneyline bet on the underdog Buccaneers.

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Betting on the NFL is tough. Even the best handicappers struggle to consistently win in the NFL, so it’s important to remember that when looking at the Week 1 lines. Having football back is exciting, but make sure to pace yourself so that your action can survive for 18 weeks.

Since betting on the NFL isn’t easy, I like to remind myself of one rule each week—have fun! Not everything needs to feel like a grind. Sometimes, it’s ok to just place a small wager with a big potential payout and root for the best.

That’s going to be the focus of this piece each week. Parlays are undoubtedly fun. You can build a bet with a big potential payout, and if you can hit just one or two of those a year, they can be profitable.

Let’s dive into four moneyline parlay pieces at different price points that have my attention this week.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 1

The Underpriced Favorite

Vikings ML (-120) vs. Packers

I touched on the Vikings in my best bets article for Week 1, so I’m not going to dive too deeply into them here. In short, I think the Vikings are better than the Packers, at least as currently constructed. Without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs in the lineup, I don’t think Green Bay is a particularly good team. Meanwhile, the Vikings won nine games last year with some of the worst quarterback play in the league. Going from the trifecta of J.J. McCarthy/Carson Wentz/Max Brosmer to Kyler Murray is arguably the biggest upgrade we’ll see at the position in 2026-27.

Add it all up, and I like the Vikings to start the year with a W.

The Underdog

Buccaneers ML (+172) at Bengals

The Bengals have gotten a lot of hype this season, and it’s easy to see why. We know how good their offense is when Joe Burrow is healthy, and their defense should be better than it has been in recent years. Add in the second-easiest schedule in terms of opponent Vegas win total, and this is a team that should return to the playoffs.

That said, don’t forget about how slow the Bengals tend to start the year. They’re merely 4-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since Burrow took over at QB. He’s just 2-4 straight up in Week 1 of the NFL season, and his two wins were a one-point victory over the Browns last year and an overtime win over the Vikings in 2021.

Additionally, the Buccaneers could be significantly undervalued at the moment. Last year was a disaster for Tampa Bay, who failed to cover in nine straight games to end the season. But Baker Mayfield was clearly banged up, and they dealt with numerous other injuries on both sides of the ball. Don’t be surprised if they can pick up a win to start the year if the Bengals display their typical Week 1 malaise. 

The Longshot

Saints ML (+265) at Lions

The Saints were another team I picked in my Week 1 best bets, but that was to cover the seven-point spread. That being said, I’m willing to take it a step further: I think there’s a chance that they can actually beat the Lions.

That may sound farfetched, but it’s important to remember that we’re not typically as good at predicting which teams are good as you might think. Big favorites have really struggled to cover the spread in Week 1, and we’ve even seen these teams lose outright in recent years. Favorites of at least seven points are just 4-2-1 on the moneyline in Week 1 over the past four seasons.

I like the Saints’ chances of putting up a bunch of points in this contest. Tyler Shough proved to be a solid NFL quarterback down the stretch last season, and he’ll be facing a Lions’ secondary that could be extremely exploitable. They were already forced to release Terrion Arnold, and now they’ll be without both Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch at safety.

Maybe the Lions will score so much that it won’t matter, but I think the Saints are live dogs at +265. My main exposure will be on the spread, but I’ll have a sprinkle of them on the moneyline as well.

The Touchdown Prop

Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (+135)

Rico Dowdle stands out as one of the more undervalued options in the TD market this week. He’s currently being priced like the 1B option in the team’s committee with Jaylen Warren. He’s available at +135 to score a touchdown, while Warren’s best price tag is +125.

That feels like a mistake to me. We have Dowdle projected for more carries than Warren, and he should have the edge around the goal line as well. He profiles more as the power back, with Warren serving as the pass-catching specialist.

Mike McCarthy made the decision to bring in his guy Dowdle from their time together in Dallas, and I like his chances of finding the paint in Week 1.

Final Parlay: Roughly +3800

You obviously don’t have to play all four of these together. You can sprinkle them in with some of your own bets. However, if you were to place these four bets together, you’d get a payout of around +3800. This will be just a very small portion of my overall Week 1 portfolio, but I’ll definitely have a piece of this parlay. Again, all we need to hit is one of these over the course of an 18-week season for them to be profitable, and I think we can pull it off.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Rico Dowdle
    RicoDowdle
    RBPITPIT
    PPG
    10.9
    Proj
    10.9

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