NFL Parlay Picks for Week 5: Don't Give Up on the Dolphins
Betting

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 5: Don't Give Up on the Dolphins

Matt LaMarca shares his NFL parlay picks for Week 5, including the Steelers moneyline vs. the Colts and a dart throw on the Dolphins.

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We’re still looking to get on the board with our weekly parlay. I took a big swing last week with the Dolphins, and while they ultimately covered the spread vs. the Vikings, they couldn’t get the job done. The Jets also laid a complete egg vs. the Bears, while Juwan Johnson failed to find the paint vs. the Saints. Even the Rams needed a miraculous comeback to get past the Eagles, so it was far from the best week overall.

Such is the life of the parlay. You’re going to lose a lot, hoping the few times you’re right outweigh the times you’re wrong.

We’re back to the drawing board for NFL Week 5. As usual, I’ve got four selections over a few different price points. Let’s dive right in.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 5

The Underpriced Favorite

Steelers ML (-140) vs. Colts

One of my favorite NFL betting philosophies is to fade the teams coming off fluky results. The Colts fit that line of thinking for Week 5. They’re coming off a 17-point win in London last week, but that doesn’t tell nearly the full story. They were outgained by 60 yards in that contest, and they trailed 6-0 before Marcus Mariota left the game with an injury. Indianapolis turned things around after Athan Kaliakmanis took over at quarterback, with the seventh-round rookie from Rutgers completing just 45.5% of his passes.

If the Colts don’t play a bit better this week, the Steelers aren’t going to bail them out. Their offense got off to a slow start this season, but they’ve shown legit progress over the past two weeks. They’ve scored 30 and 24 points against the Bengals and Browns, and they should keep things rolling vs. the Colts. Indianapolis allowed more than 500 yards of offense to their first two opponents before righting the ship against the Texans and Commanders.

Definitely, Pittsburgh isn’t the same caliber of team as in years past, but they still have some game-changers. That includes T.J. Watt. He already has 4.5 sacks, one interception, and one forced fumble. If he can make one big play against the Colts, it should be enough for them to get the win.

The Underdog

Ravens ML (+149) at Falcons

I took the Ravens to cover the 3.5-point spread in my Week 5 Best Bets column, but I’m taking it a step further here. They shouldn’t just cover vs. the Falcons; I expect them to win the game outright.

The Ravens are clearly not the same team with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. However, the downgrade might not be as big as some think. The team managed to go 2-0 with Huntley as the starting quarterback last season, beating the Bears and Packers.

The Falcons have looked like a completely different team since getting back Michael Penix at quarterback, but they’ve feasted against two subpar defenses. They’ve had to simply give the ball to Bijan Robinson and Drake London and get out of the way. That’s probably not going to work vs. Baltimore. They’re 13th in defensive EPA, so they’re going to need a bit more diversity than they’ve shown the past two weeks.

The Longshot

Dolphins ML (+265) vs. Bengals

I just can’t help myself. The Dolphins never really threatened last week vs. the Vikings, who have one of the best defenses in football. Without De’Von Achane, the team simply couldn’t move the ball against Brian Flores’ elite unit. They managed just 198 total yards, and they now rank 32nd in points and 30th in yards per game this season.

Still, I’m going right back to the well in Week 5. I continue to believe that the Dolphins are more “bad” than “historically awful.” I don’t think they’re going to finish the year with zero wins, and this could be a sneaky upset spot. The Bengals don’t have nearly the same defense as Minnesota, and it’s possible they'll be without Ja’Marr Chase in this contest. Even if Chase does clear the concussion protocol, the Bengals haven’t exactly crushed with him in the lineup over the first four weeks: They’re merely 10th in EPA per play.

The sharps have shown some clear interest in Miami this week, and I’m right there with them. While my primary focus will be on them covering the spread, I’ll also have some exposure on the moneyline.

The Touchdown Prop

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+150)

The Commanders are another team I’m bullish on this week. They’re up to -4.0 vs. the Giants, who are extremely fortunate to be sitting at 3-1. Since losing Jaxson Dart, they’ve taken advantage of easy games against the Titans and Cardinals. Even so, those games still came down to the wire, with both teams driving for potential game-winning touchdowns before coming up short.

With Jayden Daniels set to return this week, I think the Commanders are simply the better team. Their offense has had no issues moving the ball with Daniels under center this season, and they’ve even fared well with Marcus Mariota. It was only really last week that things fell apart.

It makes Jacory Croskey-Merritt an appealing anytime touchdown target. The Giants are 24th in rush defense EPA, and Croskey-Merritt should be their clear goal-line back in this matchup. That’s even more true after the team released Kaytron Allen. Getting a four-point favorite at RB to score a touchdown at +150 is pretty appealing, especially against a weak opposing defense.

Final Parlay: Roughly +3800

This parlay isn’t quite as ambitious as last week’s, but putting all four plays together still results in a payout of roughly +3800. That’s more than good enough. Once again, the Dolphins are the big key here, with the other four picks all feeling very doable.

Of course, you don’t have to use the Dolphins. Feel free to use these picks in combination with some of your own. That’s the beauty of sports betting. It’s supposed to be fun, and sweating out the Dolphins may not be your idea of fun. Whatever you choose, here’s to running good in NFL Week 5!

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt
    JacoryCroskey-MerrittQ
    RBWASWAS
    PPG
    7.1
    Proj
    8.7

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