NFL Spread Picks For Week 3: Back The Bills & Chiefs To Cover Large Spreads
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NFL Spread Picks For Week 3: Back The Bills & Chiefs To Cover Large Spreads

Get three of the top NFL spread picks for Week 3 from Fantasy Life's betting staff.

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No time to waste. Let's get into a trio of our staff's favorite NFL spread picks for Week 3, derived from their individual game-by-game betting write-ups (which you can expect every weekend leading up to kickoff on Sundays).

Week 3 NFL Spread Picks

Chiefs -10.5 (-112)

Justin Carlucci: I’m not deterred by the hook here.

Ten and a half is a big number, obviously, especially on the road in South Florida, where weird things can happen. But I think this line should be closer to Chiefs -13.5. The talent gap is real, and Miami has not shown anything through two weeks that makes me want to believe it can keep pace with Kansas City.

Malik Willis is fun for fantasy. He can keep plays alive, he has a big arm, and he has the athleticism to become a real difference-maker if Miami develops him correctly.

But I don’t think Bobby Slowik is doing him any favors right now.

Willis has just one designed quarterback rushing attempt through two games. One. That is inexcusable to me. That’s one of Willis’ biggest strengths, especially with Miami lacking high-end talent across the offense.

Miami has some young receivers who have flashed, but I am not sure they are ready to consistently dominate against a team like Kansas City. There are a lot of moving pieces and a lot of growing to do, and there are going to be growing pains.

The Chiefs' defense has not been perfect. Indianapolis put up points last week, and some individual players, including L’Jarius Sneed, have not had their best starts. But Kansas City is still slightly above league average in defensive EPA per play, and the overall unit has been better than the box scores might suggest.

I think the Chiefs make Miami one-dimensional, force Willis into difficult passing situations, and lean on the run game once they get ahead.

Give me Chiefs -10.5.

>> Full Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks, odds and predictions

Bills -7 (-115, DraftKings)

Kody Malstrom: While the Chargers have struggled to get into a groove, the Bills have been dynamic on offense, leading the league in offensive DVOA and in EPA. Josh Allen’s hot start to the year has played a major role in the Bills' success, climbing into the top-5 in QB EPA per play and in CPOE.

Against the Chargers, Allen will be able to strengthen his claim for the MVP award by gashing a defense that struggles to defend all three levels of the field. When the Chargers defensive line is unable to collapse the interior of the offensive line, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir will be able to pick apart the gaps in coverage, giving Allen a high-quality target to throw to.

On the off chance Allen is flushed out of the pocket, he is just as dangerous with his legs, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. His dual-threat abilities will force the Chargers to make a decision, either anchor the LBs in the box and risk getting burned over the top, or spread them out in coverage, which will open up wider running lanes for Allen to exploit.

On the other side of the field, the Bills secondary will have a great opportunity to bounce back with Justin Herbert struggling to air out the ball. With Buffalo’s defensive line generating pressure at a high rate, the Chargers pass catchers will have less time to create space, making it easier for the Bills secondary to create disruptions.

>> Full Chargers vs. Bills picks, odds and predictions

Raiders +3.0 (+102; DraftKings)

I was bullish on the Saints entering the season, and they’ve covered in two straight games against superior opponents. I still like their chances of winning a wide-open NFC South, and picking up a win vs. the Raiders would certainly help.

That said, covering as an underdog and a favorite are two different animals. There’s no real potential for a late backdoor cover in this spot for New Orleans; they simply have to be the better team. Shough is an elite 7-1 ATS as an underdog for his career, but he’s only 2-1 as a favorite.

If I can get the Raiders at +3.5, that’s the side I’d lean toward. I still like the Raiders at an unjuiced +3.0, but this isn’t a game where I have a ton of conviction.

>> Full Saints vs. Raiders picks, odds and predictions

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