NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 8: Fireworks in Store in Buffalo?

Well, our hot streak officially came to an end in Week 7. We had gone 11-1 over the previous three weeks on our over/under selections, but we stumbled to just a 1-3 record last week. I can officially confirm—winning is a lot more fun than losing.

Still, there’s certainly no shame in a 12-4 month. There’s also still plenty of time to continue building on our NFL betting success before the end of the regular season.

Now, our focus shifts to Week 8. We have another four teams on bye this week, but there are no pesky overseas games to worry about. As a result, we have a slightly larger main Sunday slate than in previous weeks.

As usual, let’s dive into some of my favorite totals on the board for NFL Week 8.

Week 8 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Over 54.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -115

This is one of the largest totals on the board this week, but it still feels a bit too low. The Bills and Ravens are both capable of putting up points in bunches, with two of the three most recent MVPs at the helm. That’s been officially confirmed, with the Ravens announcing that Lamar Jackson will be back at QB after missing the past two weeks. The Bills currently rank first in EPA per play offensively, while the Ravens were No. 6 through the first five weeks.

Additionally, neither of these teams is particularly intimidating on defense. The Bills have been downright bad on defense this year. They’re last in the league in EPA per play allowed, making them an over machine. Five of their six contests have reached at least 55 total points, with a matchup vs. the Chargers the lone exception.

The Ravens defense hasn’t been quite as poor, but they’re definitely not the same defensive force we’ve seen in previous years. They’re 19th in EPA per play, and they just allowed 35 second-half points to the Bengals last week.

Ultimately, it’s hard to imagine either team getting a ton of stops in this matchup. The sharps have been all over the over in this contest, pushing it up to 54.5. As long as it stays below 55, the over feels like the right decision.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets Over 45.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -120

This game doesn’t have nearly the same level of offensive firepower as Ravens-Bills, but it could be high-scoring nonetheless. The Raiders are another team that has quietly been an over machine this season. They rank sixth in points per game and 29th in points allowed, which is a nice combination. After starting the year with cupcake matchups vs. the Dolphins and Chargers, they’ve allowed at least 27 points in five straight games. That includes four straight with at least 30 points allowed.

The Raiders’ recent run has come against some of the best offenses in football, and the Jets are definitely not in that weight class. However, they’re also not inept. Geno Smith has played much better this year than in his lone year with the Raiders, and they have a legit young WR trio in Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper and Adonai Mitchell. Breece Hall could also be back in the lineup this week, which would give them another weapon on offense.

The Jets’ defense has also struggled to get stops against above-average units. They allowed 31 points to the Bears and 26 points to the Patriots, while the Caleb Williams-less Bears managed 23. Even the Dolphins got to 28 against them last week.

This is another matchup where the offenses should ultimately reign supreme.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 43.5

Best Price: -105; Caesars
Play To: -112

I tend to gravitate toward the under in divisional matchups, and this one stands out. The Buccaneers are coming off a massive 43-point showing last week, but that didn’t have much to do with them. The Panthers had four turnovers in that contest, including one that the Buccaneers returned directly for a touchdown. Tampa Bay also had a blocked extra point, which they turned into a two-point conversion. Ultimately, the Buccaneers had just 64 net passing yards, with Baker Mayfield attempting just 11 passes.

It’s safe to say that type of performance isn’t going to happen very often.

Before that eruption, the team had scored less than 20 points in four of their first six outings. Getting Mayfield back at quarterback will help, but this team is far from a juggernaut offensively. They’re also going to be without Emeka Egbuka for the second straight week.

The Falcons offense has been more productive, especially since Michael Penix took over at quarterback. That said, their offense hasn’t been great over the past two weeks. They’ve had less than 300 yards in both contests.

Meanwhile, both defenses rank in the top 13 in EPA per play, with Tampa Bay checking in at No. 3. It should be a low-scoring affair.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Under 40.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -110

This will be the second matchup between these division rivals, with the Chiefs cruising to victory in the first. That was the first game of the year, and the Broncos had one of the most pathetic tackling performances you’ll ever see. They were credited with 247 yards allowed after missed tackles, the most tracked by Next Gen Stats since at least 2018.

The Broncos are still an excellent defensive team, and they’ve rebounded since that showing. They’re back up to No. 4 in EPA per play defensively, while the Chiefs are right behind them at No. 5.

Expect Denver to do a much better job slowing down Kenneth Walker in their rematch. As long as they can do that, the Chiefs have not shown a ton of ability to move the ball through the air. That’s particularly true at the moment with Rashee Rice out of the lineup.

The Broncos’ offense has also struggled mightily for most of the year, so don’t expect much production when they have the ball. This is one of the lower totals this week, but the under is still garnering some sharp support.