NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Take The Broncos Value Against The Chiefs

The best part of the year is officially upon us. The NFL regular season kicks off this week, which means we have 272 opportunities to bet on football before the start of the playoffs. That gives us plenty of spots to look for value.

Each week, I’m going to dive into some of my favorite spots. I’ll be leaning on some of the tools we have here at Fantasy Life, as well as some trends and other insights from my 10+ years as an NFL bettor. With a little bit of luck, we’ll be able to get off to a strong start and build up a little bit of a cushion.

Without further ado, let’s dive into my five NFL Week 1 best bets that I've already placed.

Best Bets For Week 1 Of The NFL Season

Minnesota Vikings ML at Green Bay Packers

Best Odds: -122; DraftKings
Play To: -125

I was hoping to get the Vikings as small underdogs in this spot, but the odds have moved against them in recent days. They opened at +2.5, but they’re now up to -1.5 across most of the industry. With that in mind, I’m pivoting to the moneyline. You can get them at -110 on BetMGM, though they’re closer to -120 across most sportsbooks.

The Vikings are coming off a year where they somehow went 9-8 despite arguably the worst QB performance in the league. They had three different players start at the position, and they were collectively abysmal: they combined for 17 touchdown passes to 21 interceptions, and they averaged a collective 5.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Kyler Murray may not be a world beater, but he should give them a significant upgrade over the trio of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer.

On the other side, the Packers are dealing with a bit of early turmoil. Josh Jacobs recently landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, while Micah Parsons is still recovering from ACL surgery. He was placed on the PUP List to start the year, meaning he’s going to miss at least the first four games of the season. The Packers were 0-4 without Parsons last year, and they allowed an average of 405.5 yards per game in those contests.

The Vikings also fit a nice Week 1 trend. Since 2005, teams that failed to make the postseason the year prior are 82-61-2 ATS when playing their first game against a team that did make the playoffs. Add in the fact that the Packers lost two of their top receivers from last year, and I like the Vikings to beat their divisional rivals.

New Orleans Saints (+7.0) at Detroit Lions

Best Odds: -110; BetMGM
Play To: +7.0 (-115) or +6.5 (+100)

The Saints are one of my teams this season. They play in the easiest division in football, and that results in a cupcake of a schedule. In terms of opponent Vegas win totals, it’s the third-easiest in the entire NFL.

The Saints also could be better than people realize. They quietly won four of their final five games in 2025-26, and they were 5-4 with Tyler Shough as their starting quarterback. Overall, Shough was 7-2 ATS as a starting QB, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

Because the Saints were a poor team overall last season, they could be a bit undervalued to start the year. Historically, teams that won six games or fewer the previous season are 122-95-4 ATS in Week 1. When those teams are getting more than a field goal, their ATS record improves to 68-43. That’s good for a +18.6% return on investment.

The Lions are coming off their worst season under head coach Dan Campbell, and they still have to prove to me that they’re the same caliber of team without Ben Johnson running the offense. Until that happens, they’re a potential fade target.

Miami Dolphins (+3.0) at Las Vegas Raiders

Best Odds: -110; BetMGM
Play To: -115

I’m not going to overanalyze this one too much. These are two bad teams, with both expected to be among the worst in football. It’s possible that the Dolphins are the worst team in the league. It’s hard to win games when you’re spending more than $100M on players who aren’t even suiting up for you.

Still, do the Raiders deserve to be 3.5-point favorites over anyone? Especially with Ashton Jeanty’s Week 1 status currently up in the air? The fact that they’re starting Kirk Cousins at quarterback probably isn’t going to help, with Cousins merely 2-8 ATS as a favorite of at least a field goal over the past two seasons.

Our NFL Betting Game Model has the Raiders projected as 2.8-point favorites, and while that may not sound like a huge discrepancy, it means we’re getting the key number of 3.0 for free. I think the Dolphins can at least keep this game close.

New York Giants (+3.0) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Best Odds: -113; Caesars
Play To: -120

There’s been a lot of positive buzz about the Cowboys this offseason, and they’re a much better team on paper than they were last year. That’s particularly true on defense. With some key offseason additions and a full year of Quinnen Williams, they should definitely improve upon last year’s No. 32-ranked unit in terms of EPA per play.

However, the Giants could be improved as well. Notably, they made a big change at head coach, bringing in John Harbaugh from the Ravens. While his Baltimore tenure ended with a whimper, he has historically been one of the most successful coaches in the league. That includes a 47-34-3 ATS mark as an underdog.

Jaxson Dart could take a step forward in his second season, especially with Malik Nabers slated to return to the lineup. While Nabers might be a bit limited in his first game back, he’s a clear upgrade over what the Giants were trotting out at receiver last year. Their defense should also be formidable, with Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and Kayvon Thibodeaux comprising one of the best potential pass-rushes in the league.

The big reason to back the Giants is the trends. None of my Week 1 trends are as powerful as a divisional home underdog. They are 19-6 ATS since 2012, good for a return on investment of greater than 46%.

This number is already juiced at most places, and there are even some 2.5s popping up. I’m grabbing the +3.0 (-110) while I can.

Denver Broncos (+3.0) at Kansas City Chiefs

Best Odds: -120; BetMGM
Play To: +3.0 (-120) or +2.5 (-105)

The only reason the Chiefs are favored by a field goal in this contest is because of their reputation. Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, while Andy Reid is a sure-fire Hall of Fame head coach. But the truth is, the Chiefs haven’t quite been “The Chiefs” in quite some time. They’ve been on a downward trend for years, with their offense slipping outside the top 20 in both yards and points per game in 2025-26.

It’s easy to forget that Mahomes was just 6-8 as the team’s starting QB last season. Even before suffering a torn ACL, it was a complete lost season. The team did make a clear upgrade at running back with Kenneth Walker, but is that enough to have them return to prominence? I’m skeptical.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a year where they were one game away from the Super Bowl. If not for a fluke injury to Bo Nix, there’s a real chance they would’ve made it to the final game of the year.

This year’s version of the Broncos is better than last year’s on paper. They upgraded their receiving corps with Jaylen Waddle, while the defense should be just as dominant.

Ultimately, I see no reason why this team should be getting a full field goal. Our Game Model agrees, with the Broncos providing the biggest edge of the week.