Super Bowl Odds and Picks: The Bills Are An Undervalued Super Bowl LXI Favorite In 2027

Happy July! Football is creeping back onto the radar, whether you're ready or not. Mentally, I can already feel waking up to the thin September morning air smacking me in the face and thinking, "Man, this feels like football weather!"

We'll deal with the country-wide heatwave until then, and by the end of the month, the chaos of NFL training camp will begin. It's never too early to start eyeballing the Super Bowl LXI odds board, so let's talk about two bets that are popping off the page right now.

2027 Super Bowl Odds (LXI)

See below for Super Bowl LXI odds for all 32 teams, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Team	Odds (+)
Los Angeles Rams	550
Buffalo Bills	1000
Baltimore Ravens	1100
Seattle Seahawks	1200
Los Angeles Chargers	1600
Kansas City Chiefs	1600
San Francisco 49ers	1600
Detroit Lions	1700
New England Patriots	1700
Philadelphia Eagles	1800
Houston Texans	1800
Cincinnati Bengals	2000
Denver Broncos	2000
Green Bay Packers	2200
Dallas Cowboys	2200
Chicago Bears	2700
Jacksonville Jaguars	2700
Indianapolis Colts	4500
Minnesota Vikings	4500
Washington Commanders	5000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6000
Pittsburgh Steelers	7000
New York Giants	7000
Carolina Panthers	7500
Atlanta Falcons	8000
New Orleans Saints	8000
Tennessee Titans	12500
Las Vegas Raiders	15000
Cleveland Browns	35000
New York Jets	35000
Miami Dolphins	60000
Arizona Cardinals	100000

Super Bowl Favorites For 2027 - The Best Bet

Buffalo Bills | +1000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yes, we've been here before. Bills fans, take a breath.

Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in football since his sophomore leap in 2019, and Buffalo has responded by posting an 83-33 regular-season record during that stretch without a single losing season. They've also lost in the divisional round four times and the AFC Championship twice, frequently running directly into the Kansas City buzzsaw.

But the Chiefs carry more question marks heading into 2026 than they have in years, and the Bills look like a more complete team than they've been at any point during the Allen era.

GM Brandon Beane took his share of heat in recent years—most of it warranted—but this offseason deserves real credit. Trading for DJ Moore gives Allen a legitimate upper-third-of-the-league wide receiver who still has juice. Re-signing center Connor McGovern, who looked like a cap casualty, preserves offensive line continuity and keeps the guy snapping Allen the ball right where he belongs. Fourth-round flyer Skyler Bell out of Connecticut adds untapped upside and depth at receiver.

The bigger story is the defensive additions. Buffalo ranked right around league average in EPA per play defensively last season and was slightly above average in success rate. That's not good enough for a Super Bowl contender, and the Bills went out and addressed it aggressively.

C.J. Gardner-Johnson brings Super Bowl experience to the squad while Geno Stone and Dee Alford shore up a secondary that was a liability. But the Bills didn't stop there. Bradley Chubb comes over from Miami to address any pass-rush concerns. Factor in that Ed Oliver missed significant time last year, and with a little luck, this will be a sneaky-good unit. Can it jump into the top 8 or 10 in the league? I believe so, which could move mountains for the Bills.

The Bills ranked third in EPA per play on offense last season. Suddenly, Moore, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid are a decent core for Allen to work with while James Cook does his thing.

10-1 is a great number today. Don't be surprised if this thing is sitting at 6-1 or 7-1 by midseason when the wins start stacking up.

Longshot Pick For Super Bowl LXI

Dallas Cowboys | +2500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Did you read the team above and feel a bit nauseous? Imagine being the one touting this pick! It's been a sickening couple of decades for the Cowboys and their fans, but the additions Dallas made over the past year could provide a better remedy than Pepto Bismol.

Dak Prescott is one of the most under-appreciated quarterbacks in football at this point. The Cowboys' playoff history over the past quarter century is a disaster, but we're focused on this year and this year only.

Dallas ranked in the top five in EPA per play offensively last season. Javonte Williams was an absolute do-it-all revelation in the backfield, and the advanced analytics said he was a bulldozer after contact. The George Pickens contract situation needs resolution, and when it does, the receiver depth is sneakier than people realize—Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KaVontae Turpin and Ryan Flournoy give Dak enough toys to keep defenses honest well beyond Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.

Now, the defense. Dead last in EPA per play allowed last season. That's the elephant in the room.

But here's what the numbers actually tell us: from Weeks 10 through 18, Dallas owned the fourth-highest stuff percentage in the league (via Fantasy Points) and allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game. In the first half, they were giving up well over 140 rushing yards per game and sitting at the absolute bottom in stuff rate. The turnaround was real.

Quinnen Williams came over from the Jets at the trade deadline. Offloading Micah Parsons before the 2025 season hurt, but landing Kenny Clark in return was a savvy move. Rashan Gary joins from Green Bay, where he averaged 7.5 sacks in each of his last two full healthy seasons. Suddenly, Dallas has a very formidable front.

And then there's Caleb Downs, arguably the most complete, plug-and-play defensive prospect in the entire 2026 draft class.

The former Ohio State safety offers a floor-ceiling combination that was almost unparalleled among his peers and makes him a day-one contributor. Pair him with Malachi Lawrence, taken 23rd overall, and the Cowboys' defense suddenly has the young firepower it was starving for. I would argue that there are fewer questions surrounding Dallas than its three NFC East foes when it comes to personnel turnover and health.

+2500 on a team with a top-five offense, a defense trending dramatically in the right direction and a price tag that reflects everyone else's skepticism rather than the actual roster? That's exactly the kind of number that rewards the brave. Or maybe we're being foolish? Time will tell, but I'm willing to bet on the influx of new talent and last year's documented second-half defensive improvement.

Published Jul 4, 2026, 6:59 AM ET