Way-Too-Early Week 1 NFL Bets: Lock in the Steelers and Lions Now

We are still a few weeks away from the start of the 2026 NFL season, but oddsmakers have been quick to release lines for Week 1, giving us a full slate to groom through. Our goal is to lock in three bets at a key number, giving us time to gauge our position and how the market reacts before potentially making another move.

Here are my favorite way-too-early Week 1 NFL bets for 2026. 

Way-Too-Early Week 1 NFL Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 vs. Atlanta Falcons (-110, FanDuel)

No matter how talented the Atlanta Falcons skill players are on paper, I can’t shake the feeling their QB play is going to hold them back from being a competitive unit. Both Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa have severely underwhelmed as of late, residing near the bottom of the board in EPA per play, CPOE, and in Bad Throw Percentage.

Even with health back on their side, their Week 1 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers will do them no favors, battling it out against a defense that brings back a core that ranked above league average in Success Rate. T.J. Watt is likely to force either QB to get the ball out of their hands quicker than anticipated, drastically lowering the quality of their throws.

With the Steelers steaming up to -3, I want to grab them now before they cross through the key number, buying myself some time to gauge how they perform in the preseason while integrating new pieces into their offense. If the Falcons climb up to +3.5/+4 while Aaron Rodgers shows no sign of improvement, I will look to arb my position with an alt and lock in a profit while simultaneously passing on the game.

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Detroit Lions -6.5 vs. New Orleans Saints (-115, FanDuel)

Speaking of health, the Detroit Lions are expected to bounce back in a major way this season, fielding one of the most explosive offenses in the league. When protected, Jared Goff is able to successfully lead the Lions down the field at a high rate, captaining a group that rivals the top of the board in DVOA.

While Detroit’s red flags on the other side of the field are a cause for concern, the Lions' front seven will be able to mask their struggles on the back end by consistently chasing after Tyler Shough, who has given up a sack on nearly 50% of his pressures. Any stalled-out drive will be detrimental to the Saints' chances of keeping it close, shading value toward the Lions at the key number of -6.5.

If the Lions do steam up to -7.5, then tie them into a two team Wong Teaser with Houston, crashing the Lions down to -1.5 while boosting the Texans up to +7.5. Reminder, both legs in a teaser need to cash in order to win your bet. If just one leg fails to cover, then the teaser as a whole will be graded as a loss.

Denver Broncos +3 @ Kansas City Chiefs (-115, DraftKings)

Even when healthy, Patrick Mahomes struggled to stretch out the field, crashing down to 27th in Air Yards/Rec. While the drop off in talent at WR shoulders a majority of the blame, Mahomes never looked comfortable while operating behind an offensive line that ranked below league average in True Pass Set Grade.

With the Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller now recovering from a torn ACL, he will lack the mobility that is needed to break away from the Denver Broncos' front seven, a group that led the league in sack percentage. When under a relentless amount of pressure, Mahomes will struggle to weave the ball through tight windows.