Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 1

With Joe Burrow back at full health, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected to return to dominant form and make a run at the Super Bowl. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers searching for answers on defense, Burrow will have a great opportunity to remind everyone why he is considered one of the best QBs in the league by lighting up the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds For Week 1

Spread: Bengals -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Moneyline: Bengals (-195, theScore Bet)
Game Total: 50.5 (Over -105/Under -115, theScore Bet)

The Cincinnati Bengals can only go as far as Burrow can take them, making it paramount they keep their star QB healthy. When Burrow is able to remain on the field, the Bengals are one of the most efficient units on offense, rivaling the top of the board in offensive DVOA.

For seemingly the first time in his career, the Bengals' offensive line will also be able to protect their star QB, a group that took massive strides as the 2025 season progressed. Should the Bengals' front five continue to hold their ground in the trenches, Burrow will be able to operate in a clean pocket, drastically reducing the amount of Havoc he has to combat.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, enter the year with question marks looming over their defense, a group that struggled to defend against the pass per their bottom-15 marks in defensive pass EPA and success rate.

Prediction & Pick For Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals Week 1 Matchup

The Pick: Bengals Team Total o27.5 (-105, DraftKings)

With the Bucs' back-end struggling in coverage, the width of Burrow’s passing lanes at multiple levels of the field will widen, increasing his chances of connecting with his star WRs. Especially with his offensive line giving their offense more time to let their plays develop by keeping bodies out of their backfield, making it difficult for the Bucs to keep a defender on their hips for the full duration of their routes.

Chase Brown has also developed into a versatile RB1, averaging 4.4 yards per carry while giving them a dangerous pass catcher in the backfield for Burrow to dump off to when his wideouts are unable to create separation. With too many weapons for the Bucs to contain, the Bengals will have multiple clear paths to get into scoring position, turning their trips inside the red zone into points on the board.

One area of concern that is worth monitoring is how quickly the Bengals can get the ball back in Burrow’s hands, fielding a defense that is expected to take a step back after Trey Hendrickson left in free agency. While Dexter Lawrence will help keep them competitive, his interior presence may be negated by Baker Mayfield’s running ability should he successfully scramble to the outside.

Bet the Bengals to clear the over on their team total at no higher than 28, with intentions of arbing your position with an alt under should they climb up to 32 if their defense struggles to get the Bucs off the field.

Best Player Prop Bet For Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow - o24.5 Pass Completions (-113, DraftKings)

The resurgence in the trenches can not be overstated. While Burrow is capable of connecting with his WRs under pressure, the extra time in the pocket will allow him to go through his progressions, leading to a more open target instead of forcing the ball into a tight window.

Even if their defense struggles to get the ball back in quick order, Burrow’s floor as an efficient thrower will fill the void from his decline in pass attempts. When the Bucs are able to get into the backfield, Burrow will be able to dump it off to Brown to keep their drives alive.

Barring a sudden setback from his offensive line, expect Burrow to keep a clean sheet while connecting with his pass catchers at a high rate, clearing the over of 24.5 on his pass completions prop in the process.