Valspar Championship 2024 Best Bets and Predictions

The Valspar rounds out the Florida swing for 2024 and also brings us to one of the most underrated venues on the PGA Tour in the Copperhead Course at Innsbrook. Copperhead is a winding, treacherous par 71 that doesn’t have the same stadium feel that PGA National and TPC Sawgrass have but delivers an almost major-championship-like feel in terms of toughness every year. 

The winner at Copperhead has failed to get above 10-under par now in four of the last six seasons, and this year’s event could see extremely high scoring once again with a decent amount of wind expected over the next four days. This event isn’t a signature field, so there will be a cut, but the players will still be vying for an $8.4M prize purse with $1.51M going to first place.

Some other quick notes about the event:

• Like last week, it’s a 144-man field with the cut taking place after Friday (the top 65 players and ties make the weekend).
• This event has moved around the schedule at times, but in four of the past five runnings it has been played in March (and in the last two years it’s been played directly after THE PLAYERS).
• Four of the last six winners of this event have been first-time winners, and since 2000 (the first year of this event), 11 winners have been international players. 

Betting Odds for the Valspar Championship

As you can probably already guess, many of the top names we saw at Sawgrass (Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Rory McIlroy) aren’t in the field this week. That’s par for the course at this event, which typically gets the short end of the stick in terms of talent. 

Still, hard-luck PLAYERS runner-up Xander Schauffele has made the trek to Tampa Bay and leads the field at a very, very short +700. To say that Schauffele’s price has little value is an understatement as his PLAYERS’ performance, while a strong one, has killed any chance of getting a decent number on him this week. Two-time Valspar winner Sam Burns is also unsurprisingly playing but is nearly as short at +1200. 

Other names like Justin Thomas and Cameron Young will be looking to bounce back after poor showings at Sawgrass. 

2024 Valspar Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings)

Valspar Championship Course Preview

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) –  Palm Harbor, FL

• Par 71, 7,340 yards
• Greens: Bermuda (overseed Poa) 
• Designer: Larry Packard (1971)
• Past winners:
  • 2023: Taylor Moore +6600
  • 2022: Sam Burns +2000
  • 2021: Sam Burns +7000
  • 2020: Covid
  • 2019: Paul Casey +2000
  • 2018: Paul Casey +2000

Copperhead is slightly less of a traditional Florida venue in that it features more heavily tree-lined fairways and thicker rough that makes strong tee-to-green play essential. Unlike some stadium courses where strong wedge games can carry a player for longer stretches, Copperhead will undoubtedly test more clubs in the player's bag and result in a more grind-it-out event where playing straightforward and smart golf (fairways and greens) can result in high finishes and the chance to potentially challenge for a top finish at the end of the week. 

That’s the exact formula Taylor Moore used in 2023 to grab his first PGA win at this venue. Moore gained 8.4 strokes ball-striking (OTT + APP) for the week and then relied on a hot putter to pull him to a one-shot lead he never relinquished on Sunday. It’s the same formula Paul Casey used in 2018 and 2019 when he posted back-to-back wins at this venue as well. 

While Copperhead is a decent length for a par 71, it hasn’t always been an advantage to be a bomber at this venue. Adam Schenk (70th driving distance) nearly won here last season and the winners here over the past decade have included shorter hitters like Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, John Sendon, and Adam Hadwin. Strong approach games and the ability to hit fairways when needed is still the most crucial part of finding success at Copeprhead, where the thick rough and water wait to penalize those who hit too many off-key approaches, in a similar way that Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National do, just with a little less visual theatre involved. 

Course history at this venue hasn’t been a super strong indicator (Moore had only played here once prior, and Casey hadn’t played Copperhead in 5+ years before winning in 2018), but recent form has been. Of the last eight winners of this event, eight had already recorded a top 10 finish on the season (same calendar year, i.e. January onward) and all three of Moore, Burns, and Casey showcased strong approach games on their lead-up. 

Taylor Moore’s results leading up to his Valspar win in 2023 (data via Fantasy National)

Stat notes:

• Recent Form: Eight of the last nine winners of the Valspar had already posted a top-10 finish on the season.
• Recent form + strokes gained approach: Each of the last five winners of the Valspar had gained 3.0 strokes (or more) on approach in one of their previous three starts. 

Valspar Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing some of these names in the placing department as well, and I’ve included placing options for some if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both markets (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Justin Thomas Outright +1500 (bet365) 

Thomas’s number has dipped a little after he opened around +1600 to +1700 for this week’s event. It’s possible he drifts back to that range on Wednesday, but even at +1500 I’m fine taking a shot this week with the American. 

A lot was expected of Thomas last week after many tipped him as a PLAYERS winner, but the fact is, at this stage in his winless drought, asking the two-time major winner to grab a comeback win at a huge event is likely asking a little much. 

While his number is shorter this week, the task also seems much simpler for Thomas, who has won twice in Florida already. While he’s yet to win at Copperhead, certainly the venue has produced good results for the now 30-year-old as he’s only finished outside the top 20 at this venue/event once in six career starts and has gained strokes around the greens at Copperhead in five straight appearances. 

That last point is one to hang on to a bit as last week at Sawgrass it was the around-the-green game and putting that did Thomas in. He displayed solid upside with his irons, gaining 4.7 strokes on approach over just two rounds of play, and certainly may feel like he wasted a good effort with his sloppy play on and around the greens. 

While he now has two missed cuts in his last four starts, he’s looked close to top form multiple times in 2024, landing top 12 finishes in four of six starts—and was within earshot of the lead just two weeks ago at Bay Hill going into the final round. 

If we hadn’t seen good play from Thomas already this season, his missed cut last week would have been a red flag, but for now, it’s likely only produced an opportunity to back him at prices that we wouldn’t have had had he made the weekend, and backdoored into a top 10 finish. Much like Paul Casey, who flamed out at Sawgrass the week prior to winning at Copperhead in 2019 (his second Valspar title in a row), a quick bounce back from Thomas this week seems likely as well. With his number only slightly shorter than it was in last week’s loaded field, it’s time to take a shot that he can end his winless drought on this familiar and less pressure-filled setting.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (FanDuel)

• Outright (+5000)
• Top 10 (+450)
• Each-way 1/4 top five (+4000, bet365)

We’ve seen good signals from Bezuidenhout all season and that trend continued last week at TPC Sawgrass when he put up a career-best T13 finish at THE PLAYERS. While his approach play had dipped the past couple of events, the fact he was able to gain 7.0 strokes on approach around Sawgrass was a great sign that the South African remains in top form and should be high on everyone’s list of potential breakout winners for the rest of the season. 

If that breakout win is going to happen for Bezuidenhout, it’s quite likely to come at a less elevated tournament like the Valspar, which has seen first-time winners take down the event in four of its last six iterations. 

February 1, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Christiaan Bezuidenhout lines up his putt on the 16th hole during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

While he’s not long off the tee (or overly accurate), he shares that trait in common with past winners like Adam Hadwin (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015), and John Senden (2014), who managed their way around this tricky venue with great iron play and solid putting. Those are two parts of the game that Bezuidenhout is excelling at right now, and while his finish here last year (T61) doesn’t jump off the page, it’s worth noting that he at least had some success around the greens (+3.3 strokes), an area which has been a bit of a trouble spot for him in 2024. 

Either way, in this more relaxed field, I think the 50-1 odds are more than fair for a player who has multiple wins on the DP World Tour, one of which came at the famous Valderamma, notably regarded as one of the toughest setups in the world and certainly a venue that shares something in common with the notably tough Copperhead in that regard. 

Victor Perez (FanDuel)

• Outright (+10000)
• Top 10 (+750)
• Top 20 (+340)

On top of producing a lot of first-time winners, this event also has a long history of international players triumphing. Eleven non-American players have won at Copperhead since 2000, and while there are likely multiple reasons for this higher rate of international wins, the biggest reason undoubtedly centers around the more relaxed nature of this event (non-major, non-elevated) and the fact that many of the top American players choose to take this grind-it-out affair off after a hard week at Sawgrass. 

With that trend in mind, I don’t mind taking a long shot for our final outright pick this week in the form of Frenchman Victor Perez. A three-time winner on the DP World Tour since 2019, Perez has chosen to play a more US-based schedule this season and, to date, he has not looked out of place. The 32-year-old has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in all five of his PGA starts and comes into this week off a three-event made-cut streak and a T3 finish at the Puerto Rico Open, an alternate field event where he finished with a 65 on Sunday. 

While he may be a new name to some, Perez has shown us before that he’s not afraid of bigger stages. He placed T12 at the PGA Championship last season (an event played on another brutally tough course) and was T9 at THE PLAYERS in 2021, where he impressively gained strokes in every single category around the notoriously tricky TPC Sawgrass. Having had last week off, Perez will have a leg up on the field in terms of rest, and this week will also offer him a rare advantage as Cooperhead is one of the few PGA venues he’s had experience playing before, having finished T45 here last season—an effort that saw him gain 2.4 strokes putting. 

While his prices remain in triple-digit territory, I’m happy to back him in these weaker fields as an outright, and he’s certainly a player you could think about laddering through the top 40/20/10 markets this week as well.

First-Round Leader Bets for the 2024 Valspar Championship

Matthew NeSmith (90-1 each-way 1/4, top-five; bet365)

NeSmith is a player who I considered for an outright pick this week. The American finished 3rd at this event in 2022 and has had some low rounds around Copperhead, having opened with scores of 67 and 61 in rounds one and two that season. 

While he’s struggled mightily at times over the past year or so, he showcased some strong play at Sawgrass last week, placing T26 while gaining 5.3 strokes ball-striking for the week. Considering the comfort level he’s shown in the past on Copperhead’s greens (+3.7 strokes putting in 2022, +1.7 strokes in 2021) it wouldn’t be shocking to see him open up with a solid round to start this event.

Sam Ryder (80-1 each-way 1/4, top-five; bet365)

Ryder is another player coming off a strong week at the PLAYERS who also has a good history of cashing first-round leader tickets. The American shot four rounds of 70 or better last week at THE PLAYERS and has finally managed to turn the corner with his putter (+4.6 strokes putting at Sawgrass), a club that has often acted as a huge weapon for him in recent years. 

Feb 2, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Sam Ryder hits his tee shot on the 4th hole during the second round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Spyglass Hill Golf Course. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

While he’s yet to post any insanely low rounds in 2024, he did open with a 66 at PGA National and last season shot 65 or better in round one on four different occasions. This will also be his sixth time playing Copperhead, and last year he managed his way to a T19 finish, gaining an insane 8.1 strokes putting in the process. At these kinds of prices, it’s worth finding out if Ryder’s improved form, and solid history from last season, can produce a low round to start his event and pay off these big prices in the first-round leader market.

Valspar Championship 2024 Tournament Matchup Bets 

Justin Thomas (+125, bet365) over Xander Schauffele 

These two have gone head-to-head five times in 2024 with a 2-2-1 record. Obviously, Schauffele won this matchup easily last week, but the course advantage that Thomas has at Coppperhead is significant. Schauffele has played Copperhead just once prior (2022), and while he produced a T12 finish that season, it also came with him losing strokes around the greens and putting. 

Thomas has often outperformed his career averages on these greens, and if that trend continues he’ll have a great chance of pipping Schauffele again, who undoubtedly may find it hard to get up for a less significant start after coming so close to grabbing a career-defining win last week.