Week 11 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets For Eagles @ Chiefs
Enroll your wife or partner in a Monday night book club and send your kids to the grandparents. The game of the year is upon us.
The Chiefs and Eagles enter this week leading their divisions and on a trajectory similar to last season, which saw both teams earn the right to represent their conference at the Super Bowl.
We know these teams well already. Philadelphia is a lethal offense that can run and pass the ball explosively, allowing them to rebound from any deficit or body blow their opponent lands. They are led by AJ Brown, who is having a career season: he’s already eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards through 9 games. The Eagles' defense is a Jekyll and Hyde unit that is nearly impossible to run against but allows far too many big plays in the secondary (19th in yards per play against).
The Chiefs have been more methodical this season than in years past. They still rank sixth in offensive DVOA but have been carried by a defense that is fifth in yards per play against. Patrick Mahomes is still the heart and soul of this franchise, but he is on pace to set career lows in TD rate (5.1%) and yards per attempt (7.3).
Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks and big wins over conference rivals. So, who takes down this Super Bowl rematch, and what are the best angles for betting? Let’s dive in
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Moneylines: Eagles +125/Chiefs -142
With both teams coming in off the bye week, there is little injury news of note. TE Dallas Goedert (arm; out) suffered an injury against Dallas and is easily the most significant absence for the Eagles. He didn’t go on IR but will not return in time for this game.
On the Chiefs side, there are no players with injury designations. WR Richie James practiced in full this week and hasn’t been active since Week 2. It’s unlikely he plays, but watch the game day inactives to confirm. His presence would give the Chiefs' beleaguered WR room a small lift.
Best Bet: Eagles Moneyline (+128; FanDuel)
Let’s get right to the good stuff. The Eagles come in with a bone to pick, and I believe they can accomplish what they failed to do last February and hand the Chiefs a loss. The Chiefs have been terrific defensively this season, but Brown and Jalen Hurts have managed to move the ball against everyone. Hurts comes in ranked fourth in EPA + CPOE composite among all QBs.
Nov 5, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts after a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
I also expect the Eagles' run game to get going again. The Chiefs allowed plenty of explosive run plays to Miami in their close win overseas, and Philadelphia’s healthy offensive line can replicate a lot of that success with a combo of D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell.
While you’d hesitate to take this Eagles secondary against any group, the receivers for the Chiefs are hardly trustworthy enough to ensure that Kansas City can move the ball at will – which they may have to do, considering the offense on the other side.
The bottom line is the Eagles are 22-2 SU in their last 24 games with Hurts at quarterback, and we’re getting them at +125. Considering how often they have overcome tough matchups like this over the past two seasons, I’ll take anything at +110 or better to back Philly to do what they do best – win another regular season game.
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Kenneth Gainwell Over 14.5 rushing yards (-117; Unibet)
- Bet To: Over 15.5 (-115)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 18.5
It looked like Gainwell was headed to a near-complete benching a couple of weeks ago, but the lack of production from Swift recently has opened the door. Over the last three games, Swift has averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt, while Gainwell had a couple of explosive runs last week and saw his snaps tick up slightly.
We have Gainwell sitting around 18.5 rushing yards in our aggregate projections, giving us a decent enough edge to attack against a KC rush defense that is just 15th in yards per rush against.
Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114; FanDuel)
- Bet To: Over 12.5 (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 16.3
We have McKinnon projected for over 16.3 receiving yards on Fantasy Life, and while his usage remains relatively low, there is no reason to think he’ll stop producing some nice gains out of the backfield as a receiver.
Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon (1) scores on a 17-yard touchdown reception against the Miami Dolphins in the first half during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
He’s gone over 20 yards receiving in three of his past four starts, and two of those three overs came in games where he only saw two targets. In short, McKinnon is efficient, and that efficiency could be amplified in this matchup. The Eagles have allowed the fewest rush yards to opposing RBs but have ceded an average of 4.6 receptions to the position.
Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD (+475; PointsBet)
- Play to: +400
I mentioned McKinnon in my weekly TD article on Fantasy Life.
The thesis is pretty simple. The Chiefs like to save McKinnon for big games late in the season and lean on him around the goal line against formidable rush defenses. Well, it’s late in the season, they’re up against a tough rush defense, and we have fantastic odds in the anytime TD market.
“Between Weeks 11-18 last year, McKinnon scored an incredible nine TDs, with eight of those TDs coming as a receiver. The Eagles' rush defense is one of the best in the league (two rushing TDs allowed to RBs this year), and with the Chiefs coming off a bye week, it wouldn’t shock me if Andy Reid dialed up some passing plays for McKinnon in the red zone.”
You can tail the McKinnon TD on PointsBet, where you can get 10 second-chance bets of up to $100 when you sign up for a new account below!
Ladder Bet: Patrick Mahomes
- 300+ passing yards (+125)
- 350+ passing yards (+390)
- 400+ passing yards (+1225; Bet365)
This is as good a spot as any to bet that Mahomes does some Mahomes-type stuff and has a big day on the stat sheet.
The Eagles' defense is pretty straightforward when it boils down to it: impossible to run on, very easy to pass on. They’ve allowed 350+ passing yards in back-to-back weeks and have allowed 7.2 yards per attempt over their last three games – the eighth-worst mark in the league over that span. They’ve also yet to cede more than 60 rushing yards to an opposing RB.
The Chiefs are coming off a bye and likely won’t mess around in this spot. A lot has been made about the Chiefs' struggles in the passing game this year, but Mahomes is still 12th in yards per attempt and threw for 300+ yards in consecutive weeks (6 and 7), including a 424-yard outburst against another weak secondary in Los Angeles.
While you’ll want to weigh most of your Mahomes “ladder” bet on the 300+ and 350+ yard milestones, snagging a tiny piece of the +1225 available on 400+ yards is warranted in this matchup.
Same Game Parlay: +1300 (DraftKings)
- Mahomes 300+ passing yards
- McKinnon 25+ receiving yards
- Rashee Rice 50+ receiving yards
- Gainwell Over 16.5 rushing yards
This is a reasonable same-game parlay considering the +1300 payout. We discussed the spot for Mahomes above, and if he can’t go for at least 300+ yards against this Eagles defense – which has allowed Sam Howell and Dak Prescott to drop just under 400 yards on them the past two weeks – then I will live with the result.
If Mahomes has that kind of day, he will bring a few names along for the ride. McKinnon is someone we discussed above, and I don’t have a problem stretching him out to 25+ yards if we are going bigger on Mahomes.
Rashee Rice is the other name that benefits from this matchup. Despite sharing the field with three to four other players at receiver, Rice has consistently been the guy that Mahomes has looked to when he needs a big play. Even in the loss against Denver – where Mahomes had the worst game of his career – he racked up 56 yards. Rice may flirt with 100+ yards in this game if the game mirrors last year’s Super Bowl in any shape or form.
Putting in the over for Gainwell gets this from +675 to +1300, and with that kind of boost, I’m happy to make this a four-leg ticket. The first three picks are significantly correlated, and any passing success by the Chiefs is likely precipitated by a player like Gainwell having success on the ground for the run-happy Eagles.
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