NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets. Best TD Bets for Super Bowl 58.
Touchdowns…they are fun to watch, fun to predict, and even more fun to bet on. TD markets have exploded with the proliferation of sports betting over the last few seasons and offer users the chance at hefty payouts on a game-by-game basis.
TD prop bets come in a variety of forms. Almost every online sportsbook offers anytime touchdown markets ("anytime" meaning a player scoring a TD at any point in the regular course of a game).
However, there are also plenty of more obscure touchdown markets to choose from now, such as multiple touchdown scorer, first touchdown scorer, last touchdown scorer, and run/pass/receiving TD props.
TD prop bets can also be used as a great multiplier leg in parlays and same game parlays, which allows bettors to stack up bets for massive payouts. These are also good opportunities to correlate TD props by pairing them with appropriate moneyline and spread bets from the player’s team.
Below is a list of TD props you can find at many of the top online sportsbooks (BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanduel, Caesars, etc.):
- Anytime TD scorer
- First TD scorer
- First-team TD scorer
- Last TD scorer
- Last team TD scorer
- 2+ TDs
- 3+ TDs
- Rushing TD scorer
- Receiving TD scorer
- Passing TD total (quarterbacks)
Read on for the best touchdown props to bet on for Super Bowl 58.
Best Touchdown Prop Bets for Super Bowl 58
Brandon Aiyuk anytime TD (+155, BetMGM)
- Play to: +145
I think it’s really close between Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in the anytime TD market this week.
Samuel is obviously the more productive scorer (12 TDs in 15 games this year), but Aiyuk is going up against a Chiefs team that plays plenty of man coverage, a scheme that Aiyuk has excelled against all season.
Further, when you look at who has scored against the Chiefs' secondary in recent weeks (Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers and even Khalil Shakir) you get a nice assortment of shifty WRs with speed who can get the kind of separation necessary to excel against a defense like the Chiefs.
It’s the kind of skill set that has allowed Aiyuik to find the endzone 15 times in his last 34 regular season games (a 44% hit rate). Additionally, just like the last couple of weeks, there is a good chance that we see the 49ers passing more late in this game which could also open up a greater possibility for a long Aiyuk score.
Even with his current price lower than Samuel’s at +155, the implied probability of an Aiyuk score comes in around 39%. Considering the matchup and his production in this offense over the past couple of seasons, there is likely a little bit of value in chasing him for an anytime score at these levels.
Additionally, an Aiyuk TD makes a lot of sense to use in same-game parlays this week, especially those that include a 49ers win/cover.
You can tail Aiyuk at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up with code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
Travis Kelce anytime TD +100 / first TD scorer +700 (FanDuel)
- Play to: -110 / +600
Kelce vs. the 49ers defense should be an interesting matchup.
San Francisco has only allowed four receiving TDs to opposing TEs this year but they have also rarely been up against a TE like Kelce. Further, as mentioned in the Betting Life newsletter from last Thursday, the 49ers lost starting safety SS Talanoa Hufanga in Week 11 and since that time they have been more susceptible to big games from opposing TEs.
They’ve allowed three TDs to the position over their last seven games and last week allowed rookie Sam LaPorta to nearly clear the century mark, as he posted a 9-97 line on 13 targets.
LaPorta didn’t find the endzone but the Lions also have a bigger conglomeration of weapons to work with in that part of the field than the Chiefs do.
Additionally, while Kelce only found the end zone five times in the regular season he’s scored three times in the Chiefs' first three playoff games and has now scored an incredible 18 times in 17 career playoff games.
I don’t mind chasing the -110 anytime TD odds, but looking at Kelce to be the first TD scorer in this game makes sense as well.
The 49ers have started slow in both of their first two post-season games and the Chiefs, who scored first in 12 games this year, have thrown for the first score of the game eight times in 2023-24 already.
You don’t need to get crazy in this market but if you’re planning on adding a first TD bet to your Super Bowl portfolio this week, Kelce would be at the top of my list.
You can tail Kelce at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
Patrick Mahomes anytime TD (+425, DraftKings)
- Play to: +400
Despite recording 73 carries, Patrick Mahomes has zero rushing TDs in the 2023-2024 season. You can look at this stat two ways I guess. One, he’s not been as aggressive a rusher in the red zone as he has been in the past few seasons – now that the Chiefs have a credible backfield in Isiah Pacheco. Or, two, he’s due.
I lean somewhere in between (but lean harder towards two). Mahomes hasn’t stopped running this year. In fact, his 73 rushing attempts is a career high from the 66 attempts in had in 2021. And don’t forget, he sat out Week 18 this season. The fact it hasn’t translated into even a single rushing TD this season is troublesome but it’s also indicative of how variable TDs can be.
Further, when you dive into his playoff history, chasing a Mahomes’ rushing or – as Nick Foles would like to remind us this week – receiving TD makes more sense. In 17 career playoff games, he’s run for a TD five times, for a hit rate of 29.4%. It’s not a huge sample but that’s a lot higher than his regular season rate of 12.5% (12 rushing TDs in 96 games). His current odds of +400 give us a 20% implied probability of this hitting as well which does give us an edge off his past playoff performance.
It’s not a bet you have to make this week but if you want to sweat a Chiefs TD from a player with odds longer than +125, going with the Mahomes rushing TD makes a lot of sense given his history of finding the end zone in these big games.
You can tail Mahomes at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up and place your first $5 bet below!
What is an anytime touchdown scorer bet?
An anytime touchdown prop is a bet that is asking us to answer a simple question: will a specific player score a TD during the course of the game?
While the idea of what an anytime TD prop entails seems simple enough, the act of scoring a TD does need to be clarified, especially if you are new to betting TDs.
Scoring an anytime TD on an online sportsbook generally refers to the act of actually taking the ball over the goalline, with possession. That means that the only TDs that count for an anytime TD bet are TDs that are either caught in the end zone, or rushed into the endzone.
An anytime TD bet, then, can be won whenever a player you have bet on either:
- Rushes the ball into the endzone
- Catches a ball outside the endzone and runs it into the endzone
- Catches a ball while already inside the endzone
- Scores from a special teams play (kickback return, fumble recovery)
- Scores from a defensive play (fumble or INT return)
Anytime TDs DO NOT include passing TDs. While passing TDs do have their own prop market—with most starting quarterbacks having passing TD props you can bet on—a passing TD does not count or factor into an anytime TD bet.
This is important for a couple of reasons. First, there are times when skill players such as RBs or WRs will pass the ball (generally on trick plays) and therefore have the opportunity to score a passing TD.
While these kinds of passing TDs would count for points in most fantasy leagues, for betting purposes, the passer on the play would not get credited with a score on an anytime TD bet.
The second reason to understand how passing TDs work, in relation to anytime TD props, is that while quarterbacks do have their own passing TD props, they are also available to bet in the anytime TD markets. However, if you are betting on a quarterback as an anytime TD scorer, you can only win your anytime TD bet if they run or catch a TD.
As mentioned above, a throwing TD by a quarterback will not count as a win toward your bet.
Anytime TD odds
When looking at odds for an anytime TD, you will often see a huge discrepancy between the players most likely to score down to the players least likely. Players at the top of the board can often get well into negative numbers, while players at the bottom of the market can often be placed at +2000 or bigger.
A non-comprehensive list of Anytime TD scorer / Player Odds from Super Bowl 56 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles:
The bigger odds at the bottom of the market are appealing—given the payouts they provide (e.g., $10.00 on a 20-1 wager pays out $200.00)—but it’s worth remembering that the players in those ranges often don’t play much or get many red zone touches, making them very unlikely to score.
Whenever you’re approaching an anytime TD market, it’s important to be aware of both the odds/payouts and the actual opportunity or role the player you are betting on is set to have for that specific NFL slate.
You can calculate your payout, implied probability, and potential ROI on a bet with our betting calculators.
How to bet on anytime TD props
TD props are a volatile market, as even the best players in the league can go multiple games without finding the endzone. While betting TDs can often mean enduring high periods of variance and larger swings, there are a few structural guidelines we can employ to help us make better decisions that will also give us a better chance at profiting over the long term.
Line shopping should be an upper echelon task on your checklist of things to do when making a TD bet—or any bet for that matter. Line shopping is simply the act of looking at various online sportsbooks for the best odds available. Since TDs are so hard to predict, you will often find very different odds on certain players across some of the major sportsbooks (BetMGM, Fanduel, DraftKings, etc).
Ensuring you are always line shopping for the best odds and prices on your TD prop bet is paramount to making a solid wager.
You can start your line shopping process with BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and start betting today!
Play the matchups
The starting WR1s, TE1s, and RB1s on a team will almost always be getting the majority of touches and targets. That’s why these sorts of players usually end up leading their team in TDs and also why they are offered with lower anytime TD odds than their backups.
Nov 20, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper (2) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver David Bell (18) during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
One way we can make more informed decisions between which wide receiver or running back we want to target on a TD prop is by looking at the matchups. Certain defenses will be much more susceptible to giving up scores via the pass than others, while some may be absolute pushovers on the ground, and vice versa.
A great example from 2022-23 was the Houston Texans, who had a porous run defense and allowed a league-leading 22 rushing touchdowns. Houston’s improved secondary, and the fact that teams tended to run more against them due to their inept offense, meant that the Texans were a bad matchup for opposing wide receivers—and they only allowed 7 receiving TDs to WRs all season.
Analyzing recent game logs and teams' defensive tendencies (like the Texans) can help unlock where the potential value is with TD props on any given NFL week.
Buy low on high usage players
Often when high profile players go a few games without scoring, they will see their odds to score a TD prop get bigger in the next game and give us a potential opportunity to buy in at higher odds.
That doesn't mean we should be buying TD props on every player who doesn’t score for a few weeks, but it does mean we should be interested in looking into those players who are currently slumping. If we know a player is an integral part of a team’s gameplan and that this same player hasn’t scored in a few games—while seeing no change in role or usage—there could be a solid opportunity lurking.
What is a first touchdown scorer bet?
After the traditional anytime TD prop, the most popular TD market to bet on is first touchdown scorer. First TDs are simple and work just how they are described. To win a first TD bet, you must simply answer the following question correctly: who will score the first TD of the game?
If you’re new to TD props, you might ask yourself why anyone would want to bet on a first TD scorer vs. just using the regular anytime TD prop market. That’s a fair question, especially since first TD props are much harder to win, which conversely is also part of their appeal.
First TDs are fun to try to predict and also give us an extra reason to be interested in the start of a game. The beginning of NFL games can often be slow as teams feel each other out, with little scoring. However, having a first TD bet also means we’re invested in the action from the get-go.
First TD props: bigger odds, bigger payouts
First TD props are appealing for a variety of reasons, but if we’re being honest, the main factor in why they are so popular is the inflated odds they offer bettors. Since to win our bet we now not only need our player to score a TD, but to also have him score before anyone else does, it makes sense that we are given much more attractive odds to bet.
As we can see from some of the the Super Bowl 56 TD odds above, first TD odds for a player can be anywhere from 5x to 10x larger than a player’s anytime TD odds. First TD odds don’t always correlate the same for each player, either. Travis Kelce, as an example, had shorter anytime TD odds than both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders in the Super Bowl, but Kelce also had longer first TD odds at +750 vs. +600.
That discrepancy likely had to do with the Eagles being the favorite in the game—and therefore more likely to jump out ahead and score the first TD. How much the public is betting on a player and his role on offense (Kelce was the clear-cut number one receiver, while Hurts and Sanders often shared red zone touches) are also factors in first TD odds.
How to bet on first TD props
First TDs are a very volatile prop and hard to predict, so if you are betting them, it's best to employ a few structural guidelines to help you make decisions.
Pay attention to the odds and game lines
Player odds in first TD markets will vary across both teams. The main offensive stars on the team who is the favorite will almost always have shorter first TD odds than the stars on the underdog team just due to the fact that the favorite is expected to score more—and has a better chance of scoring first.
If you see a significant role player on the favorite with first TD odds similar to players of the same role on the underdog, it can sometimes make for a good value opportunity to exploit.
Watch for injuries and lineup changes
Player roles are dynamic. Every week in the NFL we get injuries and coaching decisions that affect how players are used in-game. If a main carry RB goes down, you know that a big portion of the red zone and goal line carries now may be up for grabs.
Oct 23, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) catches a touchdown pass as Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) defends during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Teams often employ running back by committee now as well (rather than having one bellcow back to handle everything), so ensuring you understand a team's depth chart and how they divvy out touches is crucial.
Looking at stats such as red zone usage and team play calling within the red zone can be helpful to decipher how a team will deploy their players.
Know a team's red zone and goal line tendancies
The red zone is the area on the field between the goal line and the 20-yard line. A team enters the red zone when their offense crosses their opponent's 20-yard line. Teams often have different offensive packages and tendencies once they are in this area, as the field is now condensed and the yardage becomes tougher to get, with defenses essentially having to defend a smaller area.
Looking at past red zone stats then can be very helpful, especially in first TD markets. You can use the Team Styles tab in our Utilization tools to view how often teams score via pass or run once in the red zone.
What are the best sportsbooks for touchdown scorer bets and props?
BetMGM is one of the leading online sportsbooks in the world. They offer a wide range of TD props including first and last TD scorer, as well as multi-TD scoring props for every NFL slate. You can also build same game parlays on BetMGM, which allow you to add TD props along with other side and total bets from the game.
One of the key features of Bet MGM is the “edit my bet” tool, which allows sports bettors some flexibility to edit wagers even after having placed them.
App store ratings: 4.8 (iOS) and 4.6 (Android)
Where BetMGM operates: BetMGM has a presence in 20 states (AZ, CO, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY) and is scheduled to go live in Massachusetts on March 10, 2023.
Looking to place touchdown scorer bets on BetMGM? You can get up to $158 bonus bets by placing your first bet of just $5 or more!
DraftKings offers TD props in nearly every category and also has a healthy live betting TD market, where you can bet TD props for players while the game is active.
The DraftKings app is among the sleekest for sports bettors and was the first to offer Americans a “cash out option," which allows bettors to cash out of their bet for a certain value even after the event being wagered on has begun.
App store ratings: 4.8 (iOS) and 4.7 (Android)
Where DraftKings operates: DraftKings has a presence in 21 states (AR, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WA, WV, WY and is scheduled to go live in Massachusetts on March 10, 2023.
You can also get $200 in Bonus Bets after you create a DraftKings Sportsbook account. All you have to do is place an initial wager (of at least $5) to get $200 INSTANTLY. Sign up below and bet today!
FanDuel offers a modern mobile app with a wide range of betting options, including same-game parlays (SGPs) and a SGP+ feature, which essentially allows users to parlay one SGP with another SGP for a potentially massive payout. TD props can be added to these bets.
FanDuel also currently ranks as America’s most popular sportsbook with a 42% market share.
App store ratings: 4.8 (iOS) and 4.7 (Android)
Where FanDuel operates: FanDuel has a presence in 19 states (AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY) and is scheduled to go live in Massachusetts on March 10, 2023.
When you sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook to start placing your touchdown scorer bets, you will also get up to $150 in bonus bets by simply placing your first bet of $5 or more. Sign up below to claim yours!
Like the other big players, the Caesars sports betting app has a solid design. They could improve their selection of player and game props, but the app uses a white background that makes it sleek to look at and very easy to navigate.
App store ratings: 4.6 (iOS) and 4.5 (Android)
Where Caesars operates: Caesars has a presence in 19 states (WA, WV, NV, AZ, TN, NY, NC, VA, CO, MD, MI, LA, OH, IA, IN, and IL) and is scheduled to go live in Massachusetts on March 10, 2023.
With Caesars Sportsbook, your first bet of up to $1,000 is completely on the house. That means if the bet doesn't win, you'll get your money back to bet again (up to $1,000)! Sign up below to claim your offer!